Niger State

Rooftop solar in Lapai, Niger: what the roofs are worth

Lapai has 83,844 buildings with a viable rooftop and 904 MWp of roof capacity. 11% run a generator, and together they spend ₦33.6bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

83,844

Usable roof area

4.06 km²

904 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦33.6bn/yr

31.3 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

7.1 yr

Median IRR 15% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Lapai

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦33.6bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦31.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.59tn

NPV₦250bn

Median IRR15%

Median payback7.1 yr

Unlocked energy16.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity102 MWp

Capex₦109bn

Year-one energy value₦104bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.9tn

NPV₦836bn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Lapai's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 102 MWp
Capital cost: ₦109bn
Year 1 savings: ₦104bn/yr
NPV: ₦836bn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Lapai pays back quickly

Of the 82,357 buildings in Lapai with a modelled payback, 37.8% pay back inside five years and 11.4% inside three.

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How much of Lapai's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Lapai consume 45.5 GWh/yr but want 62.4 GWh/yr. The 27% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Lapai

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Lapai actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 82,357 buildings with a modelled result out of 83,844 in Lapai. 40,954 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years9,417 (11%)

Under 5 years31,142 (38%)

Under 7 years40,944 (50%)

Under 10 years49,371 (60%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%46,836 (56%)

Above 15%40,954 (49%)

Above 20%33,944 (40%)

Above 25%26,179 (31%)

CO₂ avoided

53.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

17 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

16.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

273k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Lapai.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Lapai

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	44,483	5,710	₦19.5bn	₦18.3bn	9%	12.9 yr
D	27,639	2,674	₦12bn	₦10.8bn	17%	6.4 yr
B	7,826	605	₦902m	₦902m	23%	4.6 yr
C	3,896	369	₦1.18bn	₦1.18bn	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	82,626	8,423	₦26.4bn	₦25.1bn	13%	7.4 yr
Anchor	487	421	₦5.82bn	₦4.79bn	73%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	439	290	₦1.14bn	₦1.08bn	53%	1.9 yr
Worship	153	149	₦156m	₦156m	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	132	71	₦23.8m	₦23.8m	53%	1.9 yr
Industrial	7	4	₦4.06m	₦4.06m	53%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	34,480	2,015	₦393m	₦392m	5%	16.6 yr
50 100m2	18,233	2,262	₦3.39bn	₦3.31bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	16,239	1,331	₦609m	₦608m	11%	9.1 yr
100 250m2	12,858	3,065	₦14.1bn	₦13.5bn	27%	4.1 yr
250 1000m2	1,940	640	₦9.99bn	₦9.24bn	27%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	94	45	₦5.08bn	₦4.13bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	35,102	4,551	₦19.8bn	₦17.9bn	7%	14.1 yr
Rural	23,889	2,624	₦6.32bn	₦6.09bn	13%	7.9 yr
Urban	15,423	1,414	₦5.95bn	₦5.58bn	21%	5.4 yr
Dense Urban	9,430	769	₦1.53bn	₦1.52bn	23%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	40,816	2,379	₦407m	₦407m	7%	15.6 yr
Residential Small	22,543	2,894	₦4.33bn	₦4.26bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	10,833	2,852	₦21.3bn	₦20bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	6,467	298	₦330m	₦330m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Informal	1,957	0	₦79.1m	₦79.1m	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	326	294	₦3.59bn	₦3.34bn	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	190	165	₦350m	₦350m	83%	1.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	132	71	₦23.8m	₦23.8m	53%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	126	37	₦361m	₦303m	37%	2.9 yr
School	116	98	₦132m	₦132m	81%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	87	78	₦551m	₦458m	53%	2.1 yr
Clinic	61	56	₦427m	₦379m	53%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	83,741	9,324	₦33.5bn	₦31bn
Industrial	76	25	₦71m	₦71m
Farmyard	22	7	₦2.08m	₦2.08m
Farmland	5	2	₦29m	₦29m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	83,216	8,893	₦27.3bn	₦25.9bn	13%	7.1 yr
Enterprise	490	422	₦5.82bn	₦4.79bn	71%	1.4 yr
SME High	138	43	₦473m	₦415m	37%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	40,817	2,381	₦408m	₦408m
2.0	18,040	3,389	₦10.7bn	₦10.2bn
1.0	13,072	1,534	₦1.81bn	₦1.78bn
3.0	6,685	1,784	₦19.6bn	₦17.8bn
4.0	5,200	266	₦782m	₦782m
5.0	28	3	₦94m	₦94m
6.0	2	1	₦124m	₦66.1m