Niger State

Rooftop solar in Katcha, Niger: what the roofs are worth

Katcha has 77,730 buildings with a viable rooftop and 704 MWp of roof capacity. 6% run a generator, and together they spend ₦19.7bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

77,730

Usable roof area

3.18 km²

704 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦19.7bn/yr

17.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

8.6 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Katcha

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦19.7bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦18.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦952bn

NPV₦146bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback8.6 yr

Unlocked energy15.8 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity100 MWp

Capex₦104bn

Year-one energy value₦99.3bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.69tn

NPV₦800bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Katcha's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 100 MWp
Capital cost: ₦104bn
Year 1 savings: ₦99.3bn/yr
NPV: ₦800bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Katcha pays back quickly

Of the 77,030 buildings in Katcha with a modelled payback, 33.9% pay back inside five years and 6.7% inside three.

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How much of Katcha's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Katcha consume 32.9 GWh/yr but want 48.6 GWh/yr. The 32% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Katcha

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Katcha actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 77,030 buildings with a modelled result out of 77,730 in Katcha. 34,560 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years5,140 (7%)

Under 5 years26,118 (34%)

Under 7 years34,553 (45%)

Under 10 years46,216 (60%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%41,954 (54%)

Above 15%34,560 (44%)

Above 20%28,437 (37%)

Above 25%21,571 (28%)

CO₂ avoided

33.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

8.72 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

15.8 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

293k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Katcha.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Katcha

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	48,691	2,302	₦6.9bn	₦6.4bn	9%	9.6 yr
D	26,408	2,489	₦11.5bn	₦10.6bn	17%	6.1 yr
C	2,631	252	₦1.33bn	₦1.18bn	27%	3.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	75,036	3,707	₦13.8bn	₦12.4bn	11%	9.1 yr
Commercial General	1,292	555	₦2.76bn	₦2.76bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	822	287	₦122m	₦122m	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	456	394	₦2.97bn	₦2.84bn	63%	1.6 yr
Worship	102	86	₦41.2m	₦41.2m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	22	14	₦24.2m	₦24.1m	57%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	26,197	1,083	₦345m	₦336m	7%	15.6 yr
30 50m2	22,910	1,021	₦708m	₦663m	9%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	20,025	1,404	₦2.67bn	₦2.57bn	25%	4.4 yr
100 250m2	7,733	1,269	₦9bn	₦8.01bn	27%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	813	233	₦4.27bn	₦4.04bn	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	52	33	₦2.71bn	₦2.57bn	65%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	39,791	2,497	₦9.54bn	₦8.35bn	9%	9.9 yr
Rural	27,748	932	₦1.9bn	₦1.9bn	11%	8.6 yr
Urban	6,378	579	₦2.95bn	₦2.74bn	21%	5.1 yr
Dense Urban	3,813	1,035	₦5.31bn	₦5.21bn	27%	3.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	37,299	1,177	₦215m	₦215m	7%	14.4 yr
Residential Small	28,655	1,710	₦3.52bn	₦3.34bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	6,600	820	₦9.93bn	₦8.74bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Formal	2,477	0	₦121m	₦121m	23%	4.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	822	287	₦122m	₦122m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	465	59	₦710m	₦710m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	450	294	₦1.67bn	₦1.67bn	53%	1.9 yr
Institutional	276	239	₦2.46bn	₦2.33bn	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	173	151	₦274m	₦274m	83%	1.4 yr
Market	136	4	₦4.19m	₦4.19m	31%	3.4 yr
School	95	77	₦97.2m	₦97.2m	81%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	88	76	₦328m	₦326m	51%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	77,137	5,008	₦19.6bn	₦18.1bn
Industrial	552	35	₦67m	₦67m
Farmland	32	0	₦952k	₦952k
Farmyard	9	0	₦2.45m	₦2.45m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	76,353	4,293	₦14.4bn	₦13bn	11%	8.9 yr
SME High	907	347	₦2.37bn	₦2.37bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	470	403	₦2.98bn	₦2.85bn	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	37,305	1,180	₦216m	₦216m
2.0	21,597	1,764	₦5.75bn	₦4.93bn
1.0	11,156	858	₦1.03bn	₦1bn
3.0	4,962	1,082	₦10.5bn	₦9.82bn
4.0	2,290	127	₦1.45bn	₦1.45bn
5.0	384	32	₦674m	₦674m
6.0	36	0	₦95.8m	₦95.8m