Niger State

Rooftop solar in Agaie, Niger: what the roofs are worth

Agaie has 53,916 buildings with a viable rooftop and 573 MWp of roof capacity. 12% run a generator, and together they spend ₦18.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

53,916

Usable roof area

2.58 km²

573 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦18.3bn/yr

16.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

6.1 yr

Median IRR 17% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Agaie

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦18.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦18.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦954bn

NPV₦146bn

Median IRR17%

Median payback6.1 yr

Unlocked energy13.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity79.1 MWp

Capex₦82.7bn

Year-one energy value₦78bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.7tn

NPV₦629bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Agaie's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 79.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦82.7bn
Year 1 savings: ₦78bn/yr
NPV: ₦629bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Agaie pays back quickly

Of the 52,463 buildings in Agaie with a modelled payback, 42.8% pay back inside five years and 12.8% inside three.

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How much of Agaie's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Agaie consume 29.2 GWh/yr but want 42.8 GWh/yr. The 32% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Agaie

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Agaie actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 52,463 buildings with a modelled result out of 53,916 in Agaie. 28,002 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years6,728 (13%)

Under 5 years22,428 (43%)

Under 7 years27,997 (53%)

Under 10 years35,658 (68%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%33,091 (61%)

Above 15%28,002 (52%)

Above 20%24,123 (45%)

Above 25%19,306 (36%)

CO₂ avoided

33.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

9.13 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

13.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

216k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Agaie.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Agaie

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	24,046	2,223	₦6.15bn	₦6.07bn	13%	7.4 yr
D	16,039	1,128	₦4.41bn	₦4.4bn	17%	6.1 yr
C	13,831	3,371	₦7.77bn	₦7.64bn	17%	5.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	52,492	5,472	₦14.1bn	₦13.9bn	15%	6.4 yr
Commercial General	618	542	₦2.6bn	₦2.6bn	59%	1.9 yr
Anchor	389	331	₦1.53bn	₦1.51bn	75%	1.4 yr
Commercial Retail	312	280	₦90.7m	₦90.7m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	104	96	₦40.9m	₦40.9m	59%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	1	1	₦2.64m	₦2.64m	59%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	16,387	1,336	₦266m	₦265m	7%	15.1 yr
50 100m2	14,779	1,721	₦2.42bn	₦2.41bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	13,872	1,010	₦506m	₦506m	11%	9.1 yr
100 250m2	7,997	2,234	₦8.68bn	₦8.49bn	27%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	872	416	₦5.65bn	₦5.62bn	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	9	5	₦808m	₦808m	63%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Rural	19,243	1,930	₦4.72bn	₦4.67bn	17%	6.4 yr
Unclassified	19,048	1,297	₦5.28bn	₦5.12bn	11%	9.1 yr
Urban Centre	12,110	2,693	₦6.07bn	₦6.06bn	15%	5.9 yr
Urban	3,321	688	₦2.2bn	₦2.2bn	27%	4.1 yr
Dense Urban	194	114	₦54.6m	₦54.6m	41%	2.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	19,953	1,154	₦184m	₦184m	7%	13.9 yr
Residential Small	18,639	2,369	₦3.35bn	₦3.22bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	5,491	235	₦232m	₦232m	11%	7.9 yr
Residential	5,181	1,686	₦10.3bn	₦10.2bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Informal	3,066	0	₦18.8m	₦18.8m	7%	12.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	344	307	₦1.73bn	₦1.73bn	61%	1.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	312	280	₦90.7m	₦90.7m	59%	1.9 yr
Institutional	225	192	₦999m	₦999m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	168	150	₦272m	₦272m	83%	1.4 yr
Apartment	101	20	₦9.64m	₦9.64m	23%	4.9 yr
School	99	82	₦128m	₦128m	79%	1.4 yr
Commercial	73	70	₦517m	₦517m	49%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	53,812	6,711	₦17.5bn	₦17.3bn
Farmyard	48	0	₦2.67m	₦2.67m
Industrial	31	1	₦201m	₦201m
Farmland	13	0	₦3.8m	₦3.8m
Commercial	12	10	₦626m	₦626m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	53,110	6,013	₦14.6bn	₦14.4bn	15%	6.4 yr
SME High	417	378	₦2.25bn	₦2.25bn	61%	1.6 yr
Enterprise	389	331	₦1.53bn	₦1.51bn	75%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	19,624	1,160	₦183m	₦183m
2.0	12,855	1,627	₦3.08bn	₦3.04bn
3.0	10,728	2,547	₦12.1bn	₦11.9bn
4.0	6,236	739	₦1.89bn	₦1.89bn
1.0	4,410	616	₦546m	₦546m
5.0	56	31	₦504m	₦504m
6.0	7	2	₦48.5m	₦48.5m