Nigeria rooftop solar data

Rooftop solar in Kaduna State: buildings, spend and payback

3,235,754 buildings in Kaduna State carry a viable rooftop. Together they spend ₦931bn a year on grid power and generator fuel, and 16% of them run a generator.

Viable buildings

3,235,754

Usable roof area

177 km²

39.6 GWp of roof capacity

Current energy spend

₦931bn/yr

777 GWh/yr from generators

Median payback

4.9 yr

Median IRR 21% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kaduna

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦931bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦919bn

Lifetime cash saved₦50.5tn

NPV₦7.59tn

Median IRR21%

Median payback4.9 yr

Unlocked energy944 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity4.04 GWp

Capex₦4.14tn

Year-one energy value₦3.72tn

Lifetime energy value₦176tn

NPV₦29.8tn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Kaduna State's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 4.04 GWp
Capital cost: ₦4.14tn
Year 1 savings: ₦3.72tn/yr
NPV: ₦29.8tn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kaduna State pays back quickly

Of the 3,170,775 buildings in Kaduna State with a modelled payback, 50.3% pay back inside five years and 16.8% inside three.

Payback under 5 years

50.3%

Payback under 3 years

16.8%

IRR above 20%

52.6%

Under 3 years · 17%3 – 5 years · 33%5 – 7 years · 12%7 – 10 years · 12%Over 10 years · 26%

Coverage: 98% of buildings in Kaduna State produced a payback figure. Buildings with no viable scenario are excluded rather than counted as zero.

How much of Kaduna State's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kaduna State consume 1.87 TWh/yr but want 2.81 TWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Met today · 66%Suppressed · 34%

Energy wanted

2.81 TWh/yr

Energy consumed

1.87 TWh/yr

Unmet demand

944 GWh/yr

Modelled latent demand, not metered consumption. It is the load buildings would run given affordable, available supply.

How many rooftops in Kaduna State actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 3,170,775 buildings with a modelled result out of 3,235,754 in Kaduna State. 1,968,081 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years533,834 (17%)

Under 5 years1,594,075 (50%)

Under 7 years1,970,977 (62%)

Under 10 years2,336,363 (74%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%2,239,174 (69%)

Above 15%1,968,081 (61%)

Above 20%1,702,889 (53%)

Above 25%1,392,141 (43%)

Electricity billing bands in Kaduna State

Loading band economics…

What a delivered unit costs, by DisCo

Grid tariff plus the generator running that fills the gap, blended across every building the DisCo serves. Ranked most expensive first — the higher the all-in rate, the stronger the case for solar.

Loading the league table…

Ikeja and Eko are reported together as Lagos. Rates are modelled blends of billed grid energy and generator running, not published tariffs.

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kaduna State.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Where the opportunity sits

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	870,883	115,026	₦189bn	₦187bn	11%	8.9 yr
E	762,192	106,258	₦175bn	₦173bn	11%	8.6 yr
B	606,027	126,215	₦230bn	₦228bn	25%	4.1 yr
C	566,143	102,656	₦170bn	₦168bn	23%	4.6 yr
A	430,509	70,862	₦166bn	₦163bn	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	3,092,937	452,098	₦559bn	₦550bn	21%	5.1 yr
Commercial Retail	60,462	24,508	₦8.07bn	₦8.07bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	59,759	28,720	₦167bn	₦166bn	39%	2.9 yr
Anchor	13,844	9,492	₦182bn	₦180bn	63%	1.6 yr
Worship	7,083	5,595	₦6.2bn	₦6.2bn	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial	669	324	₦4.74bn	₦4.71bn	41%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	621	175	₦3.24bn	₦3.19bn	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	132	29	₦555m	₦554m	37%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	122	38	₦157m	₦157m	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	93	28	₦199m	₦199m	37%	2.9 yr
Automotive	32	10	₦24.8m	₦24.8m	33%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	1,191,323	139,657	₦17.9bn	₦17.6bn	7%	14.6 yr
50 100m2	757,952	125,351	₦98.6bn	₦97bn	27%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	613,999	87,467	₦24.1bn	₦23.8bn	15%	6.9 yr
100 250m2	568,326	133,590	₦306bn	₦302bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	101,230	33,360	₦283bn	₦280bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	2,924	1,592	₦200bn	₦199bn	41%	2.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	959,343	181,514	₦317bn	₦315bn	27%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	832,854	45,655	₦163bn	₦158bn	7%	13.9 yr
Urban	652,872	176,115	₦271bn	₦269bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	447,203	56,675	₦91bn	₦89.9bn	17%	6.4 yr
Dense Urban	343,482	61,058	₦88.4bn	₦88bn	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	1,248,962	133,747	₦16.6bn	₦16.6bn	7%	13.9 yr
Residential Small	677,379	136,274	₦106bn	₦103bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Informal	543,339	67,425	₦49.4bn	₦49bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	308,920	86,366	₦374bn	₦367bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	289,065	24,241	₦11.7bn	₦11.6bn	21%	5.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	60,459	24,507	₦7.98bn	₦7.98bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	33,215	15,297	₦97.1bn	₦96.7bn	39%	2.9 yr
Apartment	18,102	2,779	₦1.23bn	₦1.23bn	29%	3.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	16,966	7,802	₦47.9bn	₦47.9bn	39%	2.9 yr
Institutional	9,175	6,835	₦154bn	₦154bn	59%	1.9 yr
Duplex	7,170	1,266	₦479m	₦478m	29%	3.6 yr
Educational Facility	5,440	3,932	₦8.29bn	₦8.29bn	85%	1.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	3,220,790	515,474	₦869bn	₦858bn
Industrial	9,210	3,982	₦56.9bn	₦56.7bn
Farmland	4,865	1,156	₦3.71bn	₦3.59bn
Commercial	492	258	₦621m	₦621m
Orchard	222	11	₦17.9m	₦17.9m
Retail	141	136	₦86.3m	₦86.3m
Farmyard	34	0	₦2.06m	₦2.06m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	3,170,877	488,066	₦597bn	₦587bn	21%	5.1 yr
SME High	50,898	23,332	₦148bn	₦148bn	39%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	13,979	9,619	₦186bn	₦184bn	61%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	1,212,169	131,297	₦16.1bn	₦16.1bn
3.0	715,206	182,667	₦535bn	₦529bn
2.0	539,426	98,460	₦91bn	₦88.3bn
4.0	535,917	62,146	₦166bn	₦165bn
1.0	203,364	35,809	₦18.2bn	₦17.8bn
5.0	25,457	8,756	₦53.8bn	₦53.6bn
6.0	4,215	1,882	₦49.8bn	₦49.6bn