Kaduna State

Rooftop solar in Kaduna South, Kaduna: what the roofs are worth

Kaduna South has 114,080 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.46 GWp of roof capacity. 23% run a generator, and together they spend ₦82.7bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

114,080

Usable roof area

11 km²

2.46 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦82.7bn/yr

61.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

3.9 yr

Median IRR 29% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kaduna South

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦82.7bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦81.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦4.7tn

NPV₦659bn

Median IRR29%

Median payback3.9 yr

Unlocked energy110 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity340 MWp

Capex₦324bn

Year-one energy value₦187bn

Lifetime energy value₦8.7tn

NPV₦1.36tn

Median IRR67%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Kaduna South's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 340 MWp
Capital cost: ₦324bn
Year 1 savings: ₦187bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.36tn
Median IRR: 67%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kaduna South pays back quickly

Of the 112,035 buildings in Kaduna South with a modelled payback, 71.1% pay back inside five years and 19.2% inside three.

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How much of Kaduna South's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kaduna South consume 236 GWh/yr but want 346 GWh/yr. The 32% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kaduna South

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kaduna South actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 112,035 buildings with a modelled result out of 114,080 in Kaduna South. 95,811 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years21,496 (19%)

Under 5 years79,626 (71%)

Under 7 years95,918 (86%)

Under 10 years104,908 (94%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%103,706 (91%)

Above 15%95,811 (84%)

Above 20%84,566 (74%)

Above 25%68,944 (60%)

CO₂ avoided

178 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

22.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

110 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

229k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kaduna South.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kaduna South

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	102,772	23,091	₦71.2bn	₦70.4bn	29%	3.9 yr
B	11,308	3,523	₦11.5bn	₦11.5bn	27%	3.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	106,131	23,557	₦20.6bn	₦20.1bn	27%	3.9 yr
Commercial General	4,329	1,668	₦19.6bn	₦19.4bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	2,123	870	₦435m	₦435m	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	1,029	342	₦38.2bn	₦38.1bn	45%	2.4 yr
Worship	205	65	₦158m	₦158m	37%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	108	37	₦472m	₦464m	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial	87	53	₦3.11bn	₦3.11bn	45%	2.4 yr
Filling Station	27	9	₦29.7m	₦29.7m	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	19	7	₦14.5m	₦14.5m	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	15	4	₦9.55m	₦9.55m	37%	2.9 yr
Automotive	7	2	₦4.13m	₦4.13m	33%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	35,485	7,914	₦11.8bn	₦11.6bn	29%	3.6 yr
Under 30m2	27,012	6,827	₦792m	₦764m	17%	5.6 yr
50 100m2	25,972	5,133	₦2.32bn	₦2.25bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	15,970	3,656	₦749m	₦749m	23%	4.9 yr
250 1000m2	9,169	2,800	₦19.6bn	₦19.4bn	31%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	472	284	₦47.4bn	₦47.2bn	41%	2.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	112,420	26,327	₦74.5bn	₦74.1bn	29%	3.9 yr
Unclassified	1,660	287	₦8.16bn	₦7.78bn	29%	3.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	75,524	14,152	₦11.1bn	₦11.1bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	11,894	2,593	₦1.02bn	₦1.02bn	29%	3.9 yr
Shed	8,414	2,450	₦258m	₦258m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	5,347	2,255	₦912m	₦833m	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	3,330	1,508	₦7.1bn	₦6.71bn	31%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,126	871	₦436m	₦436m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	2,069	872	₦8.53bn	₦8.4bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,297	478	₦7.69bn	₦7.63bn	37%	2.9 yr
Apartment	1,232	434	₦150m	₦150m	29%	3.6 yr
Institutional	496	192	₦35.3bn	₦35.3bn	33%	3.1 yr
Unknown	442	154	₦1.97bn	₦1.95bn	33%	3.4 yr
Duplex	390	165	₦43m	₦43m	29%	3.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	110,314	24,651	₦54.3bn	₦53.6bn
Industrial	3,459	1,875	₦28.2bn	₦28.2bn
Farmland	260	58	₦120m	₦120m
Commercial	46	30	₦13.7m	₦13.7m
Farmyard	1	0	₦27.3k	₦27.3k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	109,503	24,827	₦24.5bn	₦24bn	27%	3.9 yr
SME High	3,494	1,400	₦16.9bn	₦16.7bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	1,083	387	₦41.3bn	₦41.2bn	45%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	51,060	10,192	₦46.9bn	₦46.4bn
3.0	29,804	6,733	₦16.1bn	₦16bn
2.0	19,641	5,205	₦1.25bn	₦1.24bn
1.0	5,394	1,443	₦180m	₦179m
0.0	5,298	1,890	₦181m	₦181m
5.0	2,310	896	₦6.35bn	₦6.35bn
6.0	573	255	₦11.7bn	₦11.6bn