Kaduna State

Rooftop solar in Kachia, Kaduna: what the roofs are worth

Kachia has 120,305 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.2 GWp of roof capacity. 15% run a generator, and together they spend ₦35bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

120,305

Usable roof area

5.39 km²

1.2 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦35bn/yr

32.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.9 yr

Median IRR 21% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kachia

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦35bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦34.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.86tn

NPV₦290bn

Median IRR21%

Median payback4.9 yr

Unlocked energy30 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity161 MWp

Capex₦164bn

Year-one energy value₦161bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.62tn

NPV₦1.3tn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Kachia's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 161 MWp
Capital cost: ₦164bn
Year 1 savings: ₦161bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.3tn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kachia pays back quickly

Of the 116,839 buildings in Kachia with a modelled payback, 50.2% pay back inside five years and 17.4% inside three.

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How much of Kachia's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kachia consume 57.4 GWh/yr but want 87.5 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kachia

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kachia actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 116,839 buildings with a modelled result out of 120,305 in Kachia. 67,267 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years20,342 (17%)

Under 5 years58,667 (50%)

Under 7 years67,311 (58%)

Under 10 years80,064 (69%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%76,453 (64%)

Above 15%67,267 (56%)

Above 20%61,209 (51%)

Above 25%53,136 (44%)

CO₂ avoided

63.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

16.8 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

30 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

366k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kachia.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kachia

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	46,225	7,125	₦16bn	₦15.8bn	11%	7.4 yr
E	38,827	7,276	₦11.9bn	₦11.8bn	17%	5.4 yr
C	35,252	4,016	₦7.14bn	₦7bn	25%	4.1 yr
B	1	0	₦2.06k	₦2.06k	7%	14.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	105,096	11,990	₦22.7bn	₦22.3bn	15%	6.6 yr
Commercial Retail	8,704	2,904	₦727m	₦727m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial General	5,222	2,457	₦7.16bn	₦7.16bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	787	630	₦3.64bn	₦3.64bn	83%	1.4 yr
Worship	464	424	₦478m	₦478m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	31	12	₦290m	₦263m	39%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	1	0	₦497k	₦497k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	47,609	4,501	₦682m	₦682m	5%	15.9 yr
50 100m2	30,493	5,115	₦4.81bn	₦4.81bn	29%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	23,163	2,868	₦946m	₦946m	13%	7.9 yr
100 250m2	17,274	5,120	₦14.5bn	₦14.3bn	29%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	1,716	773	₦10.6bn	₦10.3bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	50	40	₦3.58bn	₦3.55bn	73%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	52,483	2,515	₦8.44bn	₦8.43bn	7%	13.6 yr
Rural	28,045	4,845	₦9.5bn	₦9.2bn	25%	4.1 yr
Dense Urban	20,014	4,533	₦6.44bn	₦6.44bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	19,763	6,524	₦10.6bn	₦10.5bn	29%	3.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	49,304	3,532	₦482m	₦482m	7%	15.4 yr
Residential Small	32,476	5,083	₦4.71bn	₦4.71bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential	12,288	3,316	₦17.3bn	₦16.9bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	9,739	0	₦120m	₦120m	15%	6.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	8,704	2,904	₦727m	₦727m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	3,381	1,371	₦4.34bn	₦4.34bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,394	747	₦1.88bn	₦1.88bn	39%	2.6 yr
Residential Informal	1,110	59	₦107m	₦107m	23%	4.6 yr
Institutional	578	476	₦2.81bn	₦2.81bn	61%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	355	287	₦513m	₦513m	87%	1.1 yr
School	258	211	₦520m	₦520m	87%	1.1 yr
Worship Center	163	149	₦125m	₦125m	69%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	120,303	18,417	₦35bn	₦34.6bn
Farmland	2	0	₦2.69k	₦2.69k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	114,735	15,665	₦24.9bn	₦24.5bn	19%	5.4 yr
SME High	4,775	2,118	₦6.21bn	₦6.21bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	795	634	₦3.9bn	₦3.87bn	83%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	49,384	3,567	₦485m	₦485m
3.0	26,209	7,257	₦23.5bn	₦23.1bn
2.0	21,386	3,712	₦4.55bn	₦4.54bn
4.0	10,952	447	₦1.16bn	₦1.16bn
1.0	10,027	2,529	₦923m	₦922m
5.0	2,208	816	₦2.9bn	₦2.9bn
6.0	139	89	₦1.52bn	₦1.52bn