Kaduna State

Rooftop solar in Sabon Gari, Kaduna: what the roofs are worth

Sabon Gari has 124,539 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.28 GWp of roof capacity. 25% run a generator, and together they spend ₦47.7bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

124,539

Usable roof area

10.2 km²

2.28 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦47.7bn/yr

37 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

3.6 yr

Median IRR 29% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Sabon Gari

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦47.7bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦47.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.69tn

NPV₦397bn

Median IRR29%

Median payback3.6 yr

Unlocked energy59.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity180 MWp

Capex₦178bn

Year-one energy value₦134bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.34tn

NPV₦1.04tn

Median IRR81%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Sabon Gari's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 180 MWp
Capital cost: ₦178bn
Year 1 savings: ₦134bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.04tn
Median IRR: 81%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Sabon Gari pays back quickly

Of the 123,248 buildings in Sabon Gari with a modelled payback, 71.0% pay back inside five years and 25.6% inside three.

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How much of Sabon Gari's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Sabon Gari consume 112 GWh/yr but want 171 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Sabon Gari

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Sabon Gari actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 123,248 buildings with a modelled result out of 124,539 in Sabon Gari. 105,393 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years31,510 (26%)

Under 5 years87,567 (71%)

Under 7 years105,559 (86%)

Under 10 years114,592 (93%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%113,140 (91%)

Above 15%105,393 (85%)

Above 20%92,934 (75%)

Above 25%76,436 (61%)

CO₂ avoided

99.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

17.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

59.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

239k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Sabon Gari.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Sabon Gari

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	80,248	20,359	₦32.3bn	₦32bn	29%	3.6 yr
A	21,448	4,144	₦4.71bn	₦4.71bn	29%	3.9 yr
C	13,759	4,155	₦7.38bn	₦7.13bn	31%	3.6 yr
D	5,434	1,537	₦1.99bn	₦1.99bn	23%	4.6 yr
E	3,650	887	₦1.29bn	₦1.29bn	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	117,455	27,977	₦24bn	₦23.6bn	27%	3.9 yr
Commercial General	3,592	1,678	₦14.1bn	₦14.1bn	39%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	2,685	1,063	₦402m	₦402m	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	515	234	₦8.48bn	₦8.36bn	49%	2.1 yr
Worship	146	70	₦88m	₦88m	39%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	65	31	₦406m	₦406m	39%	2.6 yr
Industrial	50	19	₦44.2m	₦42.9m	41%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	14	5	₦16.1m	₦16.1m	39%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	11	4	₦78.5m	₦78.5m	39%	2.6 yr
Productive Use	4	1	₦424k	₦424k	37%	2.9 yr
Automotive	2	0	₦2.14m	₦2.14m	33%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	35,317	9,613	₦13.6bn	₦13.4bn	31%	3.6 yr
Under 30m2	31,461	7,249	₦745m	₦729m	17%	5.9 yr
50 100m2	30,104	6,677	₦3.25bn	₦3.1bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	19,106	4,382	₦841m	₦831m	23%	4.9 yr
250 1000m2	8,308	3,028	₦18.7bn	₦18.6bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	243	133	₦10.6bn	₦10.5bn	41%	2.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	100,555	23,880	₦34bn	₦33.5bn	29%	3.9 yr
Urban	14,055	4,066	₦6.63bn	₦6.63bn	29%	3.6 yr
Unclassified	4,346	796	₦4.01bn	₦3.86bn	29%	3.6 yr
Dense Urban	3,987	2,126	₦2.58bn	₦2.57bn	43%	2.4 yr
Rural	1,596	214	₦531m	₦531m	15%	7.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	57,784	12,571	₦6.19bn	₦6.17bn	29%	3.9 yr
Shed	22,943	5,665	₦626m	₦626m	23%	4.9 yr
Residential Formal	14,140	890	₦637m	₦637m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Small	12,049	4,780	₦2.98bn	₦2.82bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	8,143	3,798	₦13.4bn	₦13.2bn	31%	3.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,687	1,063	₦401m	₦401m	37%	2.9 yr
Apartment	1,748	232	₦136m	₦136m	31%	3.6 yr
Commercial	1,674	903	₦6.32bn	₦6.31bn	41%	2.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,435	576	₦6.5bn	₦6.5bn	39%	2.9 yr
Duplex	648	41	₦27.8m	₦27.8m	29%	3.6 yr
Institutional	280	132	₦6.69bn	₦6.69bn	35%	3.1 yr
Educational Facility	177	75	₦361m	₦361m	49%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	123,436	30,587	₦43.3bn	₦42.8bn
Industrial	541	273	₦3.99bn	₦3.99bn
Farmland	318	107	₦238m	₦235m
Commercial	244	115	₦143m	₦143m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	120,836	29,329	₦26bn	₦25.5bn	29%	3.9 yr
SME High	3,182	1,517	₦13.2bn	₦13.2bn	39%	2.6 yr
Enterprise	521	236	₦8.48bn	₦8.36bn	49%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	40,045	7,538	₦16bn	₦16bn
3.0	33,372	10,341	₦19bn	₦18.6bn
2.0	22,231	5,494	₦2.14bn	₦2.05bn
0.0	19,190	4,648	₦516m	₦516m
1.0	8,103	2,226	₦404m	₦403m
5.0	1,295	648	₦5.22bn	₦5.22bn
6.0	303	187	₦4.34bn	₦4.32bn