Kaduna State

Rooftop solar in Igabi, Kaduna: what the roofs are worth

Igabi has 380,544 buildings with a viable rooftop and 4.91 GWp of roof capacity. 18% run a generator, and together they spend ₦101bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

380,544

Usable roof area

22 km²

4.91 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦101bn/yr

90.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.4 yr

Median IRR 21% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Igabi

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦101bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦100bn

Lifetime cash saved₦5.45tn

NPV₦826bn

Median IRR21%

Median payback5.4 yr

Unlocked energy91.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity355 MWp

Capex₦355bn

Year-one energy value₦293bn

Lifetime energy value₦13.9tn

NPV₦2.31tn

Median IRR81%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Igabi's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 355 MWp
Capital cost: ₦355bn
Year 1 savings: ₦293bn/yr
NPV: ₦2.31tn
Median IRR: 81%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Igabi pays back quickly

Of the 370,476 buildings in Igabi with a modelled payback, 46.6% pay back inside five years and 19.7% inside three.

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How much of Igabi's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Igabi consume 200 GWh/yr but want 292 GWh/yr. The 31% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Igabi

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Igabi actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 370,476 buildings with a modelled result out of 380,544 in Igabi. 239,660 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years73,131 (20%)

Under 5 years172,463 (47%)

Under 7 years240,314 (65%)

Under 10 years291,625 (79%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%281,723 (74%)

Above 15%239,660 (63%)

Above 20%190,388 (50%)

Above 25%143,075 (38%)

CO₂ avoided

190 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

42.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

91.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

528k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Igabi.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Igabi

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	168,996	22,640	₦50.2bn	₦50bn	21%	5.1 yr
D	64,522	13,625	₦13bn	₦12.9bn	11%	9.1 yr
E	57,884	12,545	₦12.2bn	₦12.2bn	11%	8.6 yr
C	48,961	14,719	₦17.8bn	₦17.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
A	40,181	3,619	₦7.5bn	₦7.4bn	21%	4.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	362,735	60,042	₦51.1bn	₦50.8bn	19%	5.4 yr
Commercial General	8,458	3,293	₦21.5bn	₦21.4bn	39%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	8,304	3,182	₦1.11bn	₦1.11bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	776	520	₦26.7bn	₦26.6bn	69%	1.6 yr
Industrial	178	55	₦226m	₦224m	41%	2.6 yr
Worship	69	48	₦50.9m	₦50.9m	45%	2.4 yr
Hospitality	13	6	₦160m	₦160m	39%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	7	1	₦1.49m	₦1.49m	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	3	0	₦12.9m	₦12.9m	39%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	1	1	₦1.65m	₦1.65m	53%	2.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	126,240	18,586	₦2.34bn	₦2.33bn	7%	13.1 yr
50 100m2	101,015	17,090	₦8.62bn	₦8.55bn	21%	5.1 yr
100 250m2	74,285	14,591	₦25.2bn	₦25.2bn	29%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	67,315	12,500	₦2.68bn	₦2.65bn	17%	6.4 yr
250 1000m2	11,289	4,115	₦29.2bn	₦29bn	31%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	400	266	₦32.7bn	₦32.6bn	57%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	172,315	15,198	₦25.4bn	₦25.1bn	19%	5.4 yr
Unclassified	78,871	7,736	₦20.1bn	₦20bn	9%	13.6 yr
Urban	58,832	24,318	₦30.2bn	₦30.2bn	31%	3.6 yr
Dense Urban	39,686	11,709	₦17.9bn	₦17.9bn	29%	3.6 yr
Rural	30,840	8,187	₦7.24bn	₦7.23bn	17%	6.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	129,298	22,224	₦2.84bn	₦2.84bn	11%	8.9 yr
Residential Formal	72,482	1,390	₦966m	₦958m	15%	6.1 yr
Residential Small	63,370	20,448	₦8.28bn	₦8.2bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Informal	63,317	3,702	₦2.01bn	₦2.01bn	21%	5.4 yr
Residential	30,749	12,089	₦36.9bn	₦36.7bn	31%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	8,304	3,182	₦1.11bn	₦1.11bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	5,519	2,125	₦15.2bn	₦15.1bn	39%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	2,418	893	₦5.37bn	₦5.37bn	39%	2.9 yr
Apartment	2,383	89	₦57m	₦57m	25%	4.4 yr
Duplex	1,136	100	₦30.8m	₦30.8m	25%	4.1 yr
Institutional	415	284	₦19.8bn	₦19.8bn	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	373	259	₦560m	₦560m	83%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	379,339	67,022	₦101bn	₦100bn
Farmland	804	33	₦20.7m	₦20.7m
Orchard	216	11	₦17.8m	₦17.8m
Industrial	179	82	₦212m	₦212m
Farmyard	5	0	₦604k	₦604k
Commercial	1	0	₦2.12m	₦2.12m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	371,823	63,611	₦53.6bn	₦53.3bn	19%	5.4 yr
SME High	7,947	3,018	₦20.5bn	₦20.4bn	39%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	774	519	₦26.7bn	₦26.6bn	69%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	115,639	21,986	₦2.71bn	₦2.71bn
4.0	109,266	4,002	₦10.5bn	₦10.5bn
3.0	79,049	24,158	₦64.6bn	₦64.3bn
2.0	45,929	11,672	₦6.7bn	₦6.64bn
1.0	25,407	3,919	₦1.51bn	₦1.49bn
5.0	4,564	1,171	₦8.79bn	₦8.73bn
6.0	690	240	₦6bn	₦6bn