Kaduna State

Rooftop solar in Giwa, Kaduna: what the roofs are worth

Giwa has 148,207 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.46 GWp of roof capacity. 23% run a generator, and together they spend ₦56.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

148,207

Usable roof area

6.59 km²

1.46 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦56.8bn/yr

50.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.9 yr

Median IRR 21% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Giwa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦56.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦56bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.94tn

NPV₦472bn

Median IRR21%

Median payback4.9 yr

Unlocked energy39 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity185 MWp

Capex₦194bn

Year-one energy value₦210bn

Lifetime energy value₦9.98tn

NPV₦1.73tn

Median IRR111%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Giwa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 185 MWp
Capital cost: ₦194bn
Year 1 savings: ₦210bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.73tn
Median IRR: 111%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Giwa pays back quickly

Of the 147,038 buildings in Giwa with a modelled payback, 50.8% pay back inside five years and 24.3% inside three.

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How much of Giwa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Giwa consume 80.3 GWh/yr but want 119 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Giwa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Giwa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 147,038 buildings with a modelled result out of 148,207 in Giwa. 85,592 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years35,663 (24%)

Under 5 years74,633 (51%)

Under 7 years85,666 (58%)

Under 10 years101,701 (69%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%96,803 (65%)

Above 15%85,592 (58%)

Above 20%78,148 (53%)

Above 25%68,152 (46%)

CO₂ avoided

100 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

30.1 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

39 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

518k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Giwa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Giwa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	61,538	13,896	₦22.7bn	₦22.2bn	19%	5.6 yr
E	56,661	13,025	₦19.3bn	₦19.2bn	19%	5.4 yr
C	29,654	6,935	₦12.3bn	₦12bn	27%	4.1 yr
B	354	345	₦2.57bn	₦2.53bn	73%	1.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	142,315	30,133	₦45.4bn	₦44.8bn	21%	5.1 yr
Commercial Retail	2,748	1,752	₦528m	₦528m	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial General	2,301	1,549	₦5.97bn	₦5.97bn	53%	2.1 yr
Anchor	588	526	₦4.61bn	₦4.44bn	87%	1.1 yr
Worship	239	229	₦182m	₦182m	69%	1.6 yr
Industrial	16	12	₦19.3m	₦19.3m	73%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	63,697	10,627	₦1.38bn	₦1.38bn	7%	14.9 yr
50 100m2	33,732	8,984	₦8.32bn	₦8.19bn	31%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	29,428	6,741	₦1.95bn	₦1.95bn	17%	6.4 yr
100 250m2	17,703	6,162	₦19.8bn	₦19.5bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	3,569	1,628	₦21.2bn	₦20.9bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	78	59	₦4.06bn	₦4.02bn	77%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	53,553	5,604	₦13.3bn	₦12.9bn	7%	13.9 yr
Urban	42,466	17,868	₦28.8bn	₦28.5bn	31%	3.6 yr
Rural	30,625	7,425	₦8.75bn	₦8.75bn	21%	5.1 yr
Dense Urban	21,563	3,304	₦5.84bn	₦5.76bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	74,559	12,438	₦1.52bn	₦1.52bn	7%	13.9 yr
Residential Small	36,916	10,341	₦9.09bn	₦8.95bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	15,405	6,473	₦33.5bn	₦33bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Informal	12,507	881	₦1.31bn	₦1.31bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	2,863	0	₦37.1m	₦37.1m	15%	6.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,747	1,751	₦527m	₦527m	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial	1,614	959	₦4.35bn	₦4.35bn	45%	2.4 yr
Institutional	381	344	₦3bn	₦3bn	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	366	316	₦886m	₦886m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	249	222	₦457m	₦457m	91%	1.1 yr
School	188	168	₦167m	₦167m	89%	1.1 yr
Worship Center	81	77	₦42.3m	₦42.3m	73%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	145,894	33,595	₦52.7bn	₦52.1bn
Industrial	1,856	380	₦2.33bn	₦2.26bn
Farmland	457	226	₦1.71bn	₦1.6bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	145,632	32,394	₦46.9bn	₦46.3bn	21%	5.1 yr
SME High	1,981	1,276	₦5.23bn	₦5.23bn	49%	2.1 yr
Enterprise	594	531	₦4.62bn	₦4.45bn	85%	1.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	74,212	12,400	₦1.51bn	₦1.51bn
3.0	30,234	10,759	₦40.1bn	₦39.6bn
2.0	26,758	7,493	₦7.72bn	₦7.41bn
1.0	8,637	2,077	₦1.39bn	₦1.39bn
4.0	7,022	733	₦3.32bn	₦3.27bn
5.0	1,200	654	₦1.78bn	₦1.78bn
6.0	144	85	₦972m	₦972m