Kaduna State

Rooftop solar in Kaduna North, Kaduna: what the roofs are worth

Kaduna North has 132,697 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.81 GWp of roof capacity. 20% run a generator, and together they spend ₦61.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

132,697

Usable roof area

12.5 km²

2.81 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦61.4bn/yr

36.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

3.6 yr

Median IRR 29% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kaduna North

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦61.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦60.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.55tn

NPV₦482bn

Median IRR29%

Median payback3.6 yr

Unlocked energy91 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity284 MWp

Capex₦276bn

Year-one energy value₦159bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.44tn

NPV₦1.16tn

Median IRR67%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Kaduna North's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 284 MWp
Capital cost: ₦276bn
Year 1 savings: ₦159bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.16tn
Median IRR: 67%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kaduna North pays back quickly

Of the 131,792 buildings in Kaduna North with a modelled payback, 75.1% pay back inside five years and 17.3% inside three.

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How much of Kaduna North's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kaduna North consume 183 GWh/yr but want 274 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kaduna North

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kaduna North actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 131,792 buildings with a modelled result out of 132,697 in Kaduna North. 117,573 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years22,809 (17%)

Under 5 years99,038 (75%)

Under 7 years117,697 (89%)

Under 10 years126,442 (96%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%125,404 (95%)

Above 15%117,573 (89%)

Above 20%104,689 (79%)

Above 25%85,595 (65%)

CO₂ avoided

141 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

16.1 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

91 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

283k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kaduna North.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kaduna North

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	127,959	24,598	₦52.6bn	₦51.7bn	29%	3.9 yr
B	4,738	2,554	₦8.84bn	₦8.71bn	39%	2.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	123,015	23,749	₦26.9bn	₦26bn	29%	3.9 yr
Commercial General	4,399	1,671	₦18.4bn	₦18.3bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	3,464	1,291	₦652m	₦652m	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	944	251	₦12.5bn	₦12.5bn	45%	2.4 yr
Worship	335	62	₦237m	₦237m	37%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	328	77	₦1.88bn	₦1.85bn	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	77	13	₦428m	₦428m	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	47	10	₦102m	₦102m	37%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	40	14	₦78.4m	₦78.4m	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial	29	8	₦177m	₦177m	41%	2.6 yr
Automotive	19	6	₦12m	₦12m	33%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	35,661	7,641	₦1.02bn	₦911m	21%	5.4 yr
100 250m2	33,661	6,650	₦12.4bn	₦12.1bn	29%	3.6 yr
50 100m2	28,259	4,697	₦2.49bn	₦2.38bn	27%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	20,520	4,011	₦906m	₦905m	25%	4.4 yr
250 1000m2	14,128	3,968	₦28bn	₦27.6bn	31%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	468	185	₦16.6bn	₦16.5bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	130,849	26,807	₦58.5bn	₦57.6bn	29%	3.6 yr
Unclassified	1,698	292	₦1.7bn	₦1.6bn	29%	3.6 yr
Urban	150	53	₦1.16bn	₦1.16bn	29%	3.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	99,261	17,172	₦14.9bn	₦14.6bn	29%	3.9 yr
Shed	14,150	3,340	₦405m	₦405m	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	3,452	1,284	₦562m	₦562m	37%	2.9 yr
Residential Small	3,349	1,671	₦1.04bn	₦871m	29%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	3,289	31	₦319m	₦319m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	2,624	1,535	₦10.3bn	₦9.86bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	2,344	1,027	₦10.5bn	₦10.5bn	39%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	791	303	₦3.69bn	₦3.69bn	39%	2.9 yr
Unknown	483	142	₦1.66bn	₦1.66bn	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial	375	76	₦1.16bn	₦1.16bn	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	327	93	₦8.22bn	₦8.19bn	33%	3.4 yr
Apartment	280	0	₦11.4m	₦11.4m	29%	3.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	131,684	26,566	₦58.5bn	₦57.5bn
Industrial	495	280	₦2.17bn	₦2.17bn
Commercial	188	113	₦461m	₦461m
Farmland	185	57	₦203m	₦198m
Retail	141	136	₦86.3m	₦86.3m
Orchard	4	0	₦127k	₦127k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	128,262	25,461	₦32.8bn	₦31.8bn	29%	3.9 yr
SME High	3,515	1,439	₦16.1bn	₦16bn	39%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	920	252	₦12.6bn	₦12.5bn	45%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	48,512	7,703	₦26.6bn	₦26.4bn
3.0	35,142	7,548	₦17.8bn	₦17.2bn
2.0	27,849	6,262	₦1.48bn	₦1.42bn
0.0	10,514	3,103	₦351m	₦351m
1.0	7,909	1,367	₦145m	₦145m
5.0	2,053	823	₦5.93bn	₦5.89bn
6.0	718	346	₦9.07bn	₦9.06bn