Kaduna State

Rooftop solar in Kubau, Kaduna: what the roofs are worth

Kubau has 196,075 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.75 GWp of roof capacity. 9% run a generator, and together they spend ₦30bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

196,075

Usable roof area

7.88 km²

1.75 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦30bn/yr

25.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

8.6 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kubau

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦30bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦29.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.63tn

NPV₦248bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback8.6 yr

Unlocked energy29.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity166 MWp

Capex₦176bn

Year-one energy value₦185bn

Lifetime energy value₦8.78tn

NPV₦1.51tn

Median IRR105%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Kubau's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 166 MWp
Capital cost: ₦176bn
Year 1 savings: ₦185bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.51tn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kubau pays back quickly

Of the 193,088 buildings in Kubau with a modelled payback, 34.3% pay back inside five years and 10.9% inside three.

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How much of Kubau's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kubau consume 53.3 GWh/yr but want 83 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kubau

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kubau actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 193,088 buildings with a modelled result out of 196,075 in Kubau. 84,714 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years21,084 (11%)

Under 5 years66,263 (34%)

Under 7 years84,912 (44%)

Under 10 years112,459 (58%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%104,889 (53%)

Above 15%84,714 (43%)

Above 20%71,289 (36%)

Above 25%58,048 (30%)

CO₂ avoided

58.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

14.1 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

29.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

525k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kubau.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Kubau

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	74,474	6,892	₦12bn	₦12bn	9%	13.1 yr
E	67,063	5,326	₦8.14bn	₦8.11bn	9%	13.4 yr
C	54,452	6,218	₦9.83bn	₦9.6bn	21%	4.9 yr
B	86	2	₦68m	₦68m	11%	7.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	190,596	16,135	₦22bn	₦21.8bn	11%	8.9 yr
Commercial General	2,437	1,000	₦5.36bn	₦5.34bn	39%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	2,356	745	₦315m	₦315m	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	577	472	₦2.24bn	₦2.24bn	83%	1.4 yr
Worship	95	82	₦86.3m	₦86.3m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	13	4	₦7m	₦7m	41%	2.6 yr
Mall Retail	1	0	₦67k	₦67k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	91,003	4,539	₦693m	₦693m	5%	16.9 yr
30 50m2	41,636	3,779	₦1.2bn	₦1.2bn	11%	8.6 yr
50 100m2	38,910	4,864	₦4.16bn	₦4.14bn	27%	3.9 yr
100 250m2	20,233	4,102	₦11.3bn	₦11.2bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	4,224	1,133	₦10.7bn	₦10.5bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	69	21	₦2.02bn	₦2bn	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	83,941	2,379	₦8.45bn	₦8.24bn	5%	16.1 yr
Rural	54,911	6,071	₦10.3bn	₦10.3bn	11%	8.4 yr
Dense Urban	36,935	4,009	₦5.13bn	₦5.13bn	23%	4.6 yr
Urban	20,288	5,979	₦6.08bn	₦6.05bn	21%	5.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	111,574	5,859	₦877m	₦877m	7%	15.4 yr
Residential Small	44,386	6,331	₦4.51bn	₦4.5bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential	17,030	3,794	₦16.1bn	₦15.9bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Informal	11,765	151	₦390m	₦390m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Formal	5,709	0	₦127m	₦118m	17%	6.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,356	745	₦315m	₦315m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	1,322	451	₦3.09bn	₦3.06bn	39%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	797	304	₦1.74bn	₦1.74bn	39%	2.9 yr
Institutional	331	267	₦1.52bn	₦1.52bn	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	267	221	₦272m	₦272m	89%	1.1 yr
School	170	135	₦129m	₦129m	87%	1.1 yr
Apartment	95	0	₦2.51m	₦2.51m	29%	3.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	196,071	18,438	₦30bn	₦29.7bn
Farmland	4	0	₦9.65k	₦9.65k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	193,368	17,207	₦22.9bn	₦22.7bn	11%	8.9 yr
SME High	2,120	755	₦4.83bn	₦4.8bn	39%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	587	476	₦2.25bn	₦2.25bn	83%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	111,547	5,863	₦877m	₦877m
3.0	35,101	7,216	₦20.1bn	₦19.9bn
2.0	28,326	3,632	₦3.68bn	₦3.68bn
1.0	10,016	1,252	₦1bn	₦993m
4.0	9,804	225	₦2.11bn	₦2.1bn
5.0	1,085	189	₦1.47bn	₦1.44bn
6.0	196	61	₦765m	₦765m