Kaduna State

Rooftop solar in Soba, Kaduna: what the roofs are worth

Soba has 176,141 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.62 GWp of roof capacity. 11% run a generator, and together they spend ₦31bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

176,141

Usable roof area

7.29 km²

1.62 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦31bn/yr

27.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

8.6 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Soba

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦31bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦30.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.65tn

NPV₦258bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback8.6 yr

Unlocked energy25.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity149 MWp

Capex₦160bn

Year-one energy value₦176bn

Lifetime energy value₦8.43tn

NPV₦1.46tn

Median IRR109%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Soba's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 149 MWp
Capital cost: ₦160bn
Year 1 savings: ₦176bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.46tn
Median IRR: 109%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Soba pays back quickly

Of the 167,751 buildings in Soba with a modelled payback, 35.9% pay back inside five years and 11.5% inside three.

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How much of Soba's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Soba consume 47.3 GWh/yr but want 73 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Soba

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Soba actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 167,751 buildings with a modelled result out of 176,141 in Soba. 75,005 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years19,239 (11%)

Under 5 years60,195 (36%)

Under 7 years75,152 (45%)

Under 10 years97,278 (58%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%90,517 (51%)

Above 15%75,005 (43%)

Above 20%64,456 (37%)

Above 25%52,484 (30%)

CO₂ avoided

57.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

15.9 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

25.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

553k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Soba.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Soba

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	77,940	8,076	₦12.1bn	₦12bn	9%	9.6 yr
E	65,526	7,921	₦13bn	₦12.8bn	9%	8.9 yr
C	32,675	2,683	₦5.95bn	₦5.88bn	19%	5.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	173,374	16,722	₦24.8bn	₦24.5bn	11%	8.9 yr
Commercial General	1,112	787	₦4bn	₦4bn	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	763	371	₦167m	₦167m	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	543	477	₦1.67bn	₦1.67bn	87%	1.1 yr
Worship	335	309	₦283m	₦283m	67%	1.6 yr
Industrial	14	14	₦26.2m	₦26.2m	73%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	81,770	5,144	₦792m	₦757m	5%	16.6 yr
30 50m2	35,897	3,661	₦1.1bn	₦1.1bn	11%	8.9 yr
50 100m2	34,918	4,627	₦3.98bn	₦3.98bn	27%	4.1 yr
100 250m2	19,206	4,014	₦12.7bn	₦12.5bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	4,318	1,223	₦11.4bn	₦11.3bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	32	11	₦1.08bn	₦1.08bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	68,243	1,980	₦4.31bn	₦4.28bn	5%	16.4 yr
Urban	46,931	12,533	₦17.8bn	₦17.7bn	21%	5.1 yr
Rural	46,395	3,044	₦7.62bn	₦7.46bn	13%	8.1 yr
Dense Urban	14,572	1,123	₦1.27bn	₦1.27bn	21%	4.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	95,397	5,709	₦825m	₦825m	7%	15.4 yr
Residential Small	43,826	5,719	₦4.51bn	₦4.51bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential	20,847	4,025	₦18.3bn	₦18bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Informal	8,902	835	₦909m	₦909m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	4,206	386	₦266m	₦232m	23%	4.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	763	371	₦167m	₦167m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	408	147	₦1.2bn	₦1.2bn	39%	2.9 yr
Commercial	404	377	₦2.34bn	₦2.34bn	67%	1.6 yr
Institutional	396	352	₦1.26bn	₦1.26bn	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	232	199	₦268m	₦268m	91%	1.1 yr
School	181	160	₦142m	₦142m	89%	1.1 yr
Apartment	140	38	₦20m	₦20m	31%	3.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	176,141	18,680	₦31bn	₦30.7bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	174,786	17,676	₦25.8bn	₦25.5bn	11%	8.9 yr
SME High	812	524	₦3.53bn	₦3.53bn	61%	1.6 yr
Enterprise	543	480	₦1.69bn	₦1.69bn	85%	1.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	95,086	5,727	₦824m	₦824m
3.0	34,670	6,532	₦21.5bn	₦21.3bn
2.0	28,806	4,226	₦4.34bn	₦4.22bn
1.0	10,001	1,330	₦839m	₦839m
4.0	7,300	764	₦2.6bn	₦2.57bn
5.0	258	91	₦794m	₦794m
6.0	20	10	₦135m	₦135m