Kaduna State

Rooftop solar in Chikun, Kaduna: what the roofs are worth

Chikun has 348,622 buildings with a viable rooftop and 5.7 GWp of roof capacity. 22% run a generator, and together they spend ₦113bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

348,622

Usable roof area

25.4 km²

5.7 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦113bn/yr

89.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Chikun

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦113bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦112bn

Lifetime cash saved₦6.3tn

NPV₦910bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy129 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity463 MWp

Capex₦457bn

Year-one energy value₦330bn

Lifetime energy value₦15.6tn

NPV₦2.54tn

Median IRR77%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Chikun's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 463 MWp
Capital cost: ₦457bn
Year 1 savings: ₦330bn/yr
NPV: ₦2.54tn
Median IRR: 77%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Chikun pays back quickly

Of the 340,079 buildings in Chikun with a modelled payback, 58.7% pay back inside five years and 21.5% inside three.

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How much of Chikun's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Chikun consume 264 GWh/yr but want 393 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Chikun

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Chikun actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 340,079 buildings with a modelled result out of 348,622 in Chikun. 246,694 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years73,177 (22%)

Under 5 years199,724 (59%)

Under 7 years246,943 (73%)

Under 10 years277,443 (82%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%271,430 (78%)

Above 15%246,694 (71%)

Above 20%213,637 (61%)

Above 25%173,553 (50%)

CO₂ avoided

231 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

41 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

129 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

611k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Chikun.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Chikun

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	136,580	42,696	₦59bn	₦58.6bn	29%	3.6 yr
A	100,586	13,823	₦27.6bn	₦27.3bn	25%	4.1 yr
C	39,732	11,613	₦13.3bn	₦13.2bn	27%	3.9 yr
D	38,053	3,982	₦5.47bn	₦5.47bn	7%	13.9 yr
E	33,671	3,149	₦7.34bn	₦7.16bn	9%	13.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	331,040	68,358	₦53.3bn	₦52.4bn	23%	4.4 yr
Commercial Retail	7,808	2,701	₦869m	₦869m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial General	7,627	3,231	₦21.7bn	₦21.6bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	1,294	592	₦35.7bn	₦35.6bn	47%	2.4 yr
Worship	717	343	₦467m	₦467m	37%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	55	9	₦187m	₦187m	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial	51	25	₦591m	₦591m	41%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	15	2	₦14.4m	₦14.4m	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	8	1	₦1.56m	₦1.56m	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	4	0	₦3.69m	₦3.69m	37%	2.9 yr
Automotive	3	1	₦5.52m	₦5.52m	33%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	108,885	18,015	₦1.89bn	₦1.89bn	7%	13.1 yr
100 250m2	99,583	27,467	₦36.2bn	₦35.9bn	29%	3.6 yr
50 100m2	74,374	15,346	₦7.19bn	₦6.66bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	49,974	9,161	₦1.76bn	₦1.76bn	19%	5.9 yr
250 1000m2	15,305	5,009	₦25.9bn	₦25.9bn	31%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	501	265	₦39.8bn	₦39.7bn	41%	2.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	221,011	51,861	₦65bn	₦64.9bn	27%	3.9 yr
Unclassified	58,375	5,269	₦24.4bn	₦23.6bn	7%	13.6 yr
Urban	28,659	10,323	₦14.7bn	₦14.5bn	29%	3.6 yr
Dense Urban	25,135	6,077	₦6.21bn	₦6.21bn	21%	4.9 yr
Rural	15,442	1,733	₦2.53bn	₦2.53bn	11%	8.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	89,963	11,280	₦4.35bn	₦4.34bn	21%	4.9 yr
Shed	81,457	14,738	₦1.79bn	₦1.79bn	9%	13.1 yr
Residential Informal	65,995	7,458	₦4.17bn	₦4.16bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	47,886	17,521	₦7.96bn	₦7.24bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	32,836	15,220	₦34.2bn	₦34bn	31%	3.6 yr
Apartment	9,666	1,563	₦646m	₦646m	29%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	7,809	2,700	₦867m	₦867m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	4,225	2,002	₦13.6bn	₦13.6bn	37%	2.9 yr
Duplex	3,237	578	₦218m	₦218m	29%	3.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	2,498	888	₦6.65bn	₦6.65bn	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	863	435	₦35bn	₦34.9bn	35%	3.1 yr
Educational Facility	469	215	₦505m	₦505m	47%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	344,395	73,770	₦91.8bn	₦90.8bn
Industrial	2,587	1,092	₦19.9bn	₦19.8bn
Farmland	1,631	401	₦1.08bn	₦1.08bn
Commercial	7	0	₦614k	₦614k
Orchard	2	0	₦11.3k	₦11.3k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	340,547	71,763	₦56.2bn	₦55.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	6,775	2,900	₦20.4bn	₦20.3bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	1,300	600	₦36.2bn	₦36.1bn	47%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	131,874	17,249	₦30.6bn	₦30.5bn
3.0	81,855	30,701	₦58.7bn	₦58.4bn
0.0	77,004	14,273	₦1.71bn	₦1.71bn
2.0	38,423	8,749	₦4.99bn	₦4.53bn
1.0	15,372	2,690	₦938m	₦842m
5.0	3,489	1,311	₦8.28bn	₦8.28bn
6.0	605	290	₦7.55bn	₦7.51bn