Kaduna State

Rooftop solar in Ikara, Kaduna: what the roofs are worth

Ikara has 138,220 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.11 GWp of roof capacity. 12% run a generator, and together they spend ₦24.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

138,220

Usable roof area

5.02 km²

1.11 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦24.1bn/yr

19.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

7.6 yr

Median IRR 13% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ikara

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦24.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦23.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.28tn

NPV₦200bn

Median IRR13%

Median payback7.6 yr

Unlocked energy24.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity134 MWp

Capex₦144bn

Year-one energy value₦157bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.48tn

NPV₦1.29tn

Median IRR111%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Ikara's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 134 MWp
Capital cost: ₦144bn
Year 1 savings: ₦157bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.29tn
Median IRR: 111%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ikara pays back quickly

Of the 137,150 buildings in Ikara with a modelled payback, 39.4% pay back inside five years and 13.9% inside three.

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How much of Ikara's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ikara consume 39.9 GWh/yr but want 64.3 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ikara

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ikara actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 137,150 buildings with a modelled result out of 138,220 in Ikara. 66,460 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years19,090 (14%)

Under 5 years54,075 (39%)

Under 7 years66,596 (49%)

Under 10 years87,334 (64%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%80,168 (58%)

Above 15%66,460 (48%)

Above 20%57,659 (42%)

Above 25%48,282 (35%)

CO₂ avoided

47.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

12 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

24.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

470k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ikara.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Ikara

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	54,844	5,035	₦7.43bn	₦7.26bn	9%	9.4 yr
E	43,819	5,901	₦7.74bn	₦7.68bn	11%	9.4 yr
C	35,632	4,599	₦7.49bn	₦7.48bn	21%	4.9 yr
B	3,925	798	₦1.47bn	₦1.47bn	27%	3.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	132,908	15,019	₦20.2bn	₦19.9bn	11%	8.4 yr
Commercial Retail	3,024	357	₦152m	₦152m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	1,639	428	₦1.27bn	₦1.27bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	432	374	₦2.43bn	₦2.43bn	87%	1.1 yr
Worship	178	133	₦85.5m	₦85.5m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	26	9	₦19.4m	₦19.4m	41%	2.6 yr
Productive Use	8	8	₦5.65m	₦5.65m	75%	1.4 yr
Filling Station	5	5	₦8.17m	₦8.17m	75%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	62,098	5,346	₦702m	₦697m	7%	14.9 yr
30 50m2	35,004	3,645	₦1.27bn	₦1.27bn	11%	8.4 yr
50 100m2	27,106	4,019	₦4.51bn	₦4.5bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	12,184	2,766	₦9.51bn	₦9.27bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	1,764	527	₦5.82bn	₦5.82bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	64	30	₦2.32bn	₦2.32bn	33%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	83,268	12,859	₦16.8bn	₦16.5bn	13%	7.9 yr
Unclassified	28,134	558	₦3.18bn	₦3.17bn	7%	14.4 yr
Dense Urban	19,789	2,552	₦3.38bn	₦3.38bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	7,029	364	₦814m	₦792m	9%	9.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	73,314	6,024	₦693m	₦693m	7%	14.1 yr
Residential Small	32,274	5,698	₦5.44bn	₦5.43bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	15,415	3,013	₦13.7bn	₦13.4bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Informal	8,064	283	₦325m	₦325m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	3,768	0	₦42.5m	₦42.5m	15%	6.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	3,031	364	₦156m	₦156m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	1,097	96	₦523m	₦523m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	309	148	₦331m	₦331m	39%	2.9 yr
Institutional	290	239	₦2.04bn	₦2.04bn	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	183	164	₦254m	₦254m	93%	1.1 yr
School	138	119	₦163m	₦163m	91%	1.1 yr
Place Of Worship	61	46	₦11m	₦11m	69%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	138,220	16,333	₦24.1bn	₦23.9bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	136,374	15,709	₦20.8bn	₦20.6bn	13%	8.1 yr
SME High	1,412	250	₦878m	₦878m	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	434	374	₦2.42bn	₦2.42bn	87%	1.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	73,275	6,034	₦695m	₦695m
2.0	25,181	3,611	₦4.67bn	₦4.51bn
3.0	23,918	5,051	₦16.7bn	₦16.6bn
1.0	9,940	1,488	₦1.08bn	₦1.08bn
4.0	4,990	145	₦522m	₦522m
5.0	851	4	₦339m	₦339m
6.0	65	0	₦105m	₦105m