Kaduna State

Rooftop solar in Lere, Kaduna: what the roofs are worth

Lere has 195,344 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.89 GWp of roof capacity. 7% run a generator, and together they spend ₦20.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

195,344

Usable roof area

8.51 km²

1.89 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦20.8bn/yr

16.3 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

6.6 yr

Median IRR 15% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Lere

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦20.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦20.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.15tn

NPV₦170bn

Median IRR15%

Median payback6.6 yr

Unlocked energy26.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity166 MWp

Capex₦177bn

Year-one energy value₦190bn

Lifetime energy value₦9.06tn

NPV₦1.56tn

Median IRR109%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Lere's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 166 MWp
Capital cost: ₦177bn
Year 1 savings: ₦190bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.56tn
Median IRR: 109%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Lere pays back quickly

Of the 189,399 buildings in Lere with a modelled payback, 39.2% pay back inside five years and 8.2% inside three.

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How much of Lere's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Lere consume 42.2 GWh/yr but want 68.9 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Lere

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Lere actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 189,399 buildings with a modelled result out of 195,344 in Lere. 97,295 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years15,614 (8%)

Under 5 years74,254 (39%)

Under 7 years97,509 (51%)

Under 10 years124,570 (66%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%116,393 (60%)

Above 15%97,295 (50%)

Above 20%80,663 (41%)

Above 25%63,074 (32%)

CO₂ avoided

43.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

8.8 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

26.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

617k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Lere.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Lere

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	74,172	5,132	₦7.07bn	₦6.92bn	11%	9.1 yr
E	63,640	3,345	₦4.98bn	₦4.82bn	11%	8.9 yr
C	44,185	5,110	₦8.52bn	₦8.51bn	23%	4.6 yr
B	13,347	7	₦251m	₦251m	17%	6.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	190,413	11,281	₦15.1bn	₦14.8bn	13%	6.9 yr
Commercial Retail	1,907	624	₦209m	₦209m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	1,905	839	₦3bn	₦3bn	39%	2.9 yr
Anchor	695	507	₦2.09bn	₦2.09bn	75%	1.4 yr
Worship	406	338	₦382m	₦382m	67%	1.6 yr
Industrial	9	2	₦6.08m	₦6.08m	39%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	4	2	₦28.7m	₦28.7m	37%	1.9 yr
Mall Retail	4	0	₦2.77m	₦2.77m	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	1	1	₦239k	₦239k	71%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	75,136	3,611	₦536m	₦535m	5%	15.9 yr
50 100m2	48,535	3,678	₦3.49bn	₦3.47bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	42,979	2,599	₦865m	₦864m	11%	8.9 yr
100 250m2	25,274	3,035	₦9bn	₦8.82bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	3,391	661	₦5.6bn	₦5.49bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	29	10	₦1.33bn	₦1.33bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	65,381	1,554	₦4.94bn	₦4.74bn	7%	14.1 yr
Urban	43,996	5,328	₦5.42bn	₦5.31bn	19%	5.9 yr
Rural	38,108	2,431	₦3.21bn	₦3.21bn	15%	6.6 yr
Dense Urban	29,392	2,870	₦4.15bn	₦4.15bn	19%	5.4 yr
Urban Centre	18,467	1,411	₦3.1bn	₦3.1bn	21%	4.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	94,597	4,244	₦607m	₦607m	7%	14.6 yr
Residential Small	54,216	4,205	₦3.71bn	₦3.69bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential	19,260	2,244	₦10bn	₦9.76bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	11,184	3	₦218m	₦217m	21%	5.1 yr
Residential Informal	10,594	585	₦492m	₦492m	17%	5.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,907	625	₦209m	₦209m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	1,074	377	₦1.47bn	₦1.47bn	39%	2.9 yr
Institutional	494	364	₦1.77bn	₦1.77bn	61%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	407	186	₦1.04bn	₦1.04bn	39%	2.9 yr
Apartment	385	0	₦11.4m	₦11.4m	29%	3.6 yr
Educational Facility	309	224	₦326m	₦326m	87%	1.1 yr
School	219	164	₦171m	₦171m	87%	1.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	195,332	13,594	₦20.8bn	₦20.5bn
Farmland	12	0	₦399k	₦399k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	193,161	12,524	₦16.2bn	₦15.9bn	15%	6.9 yr
SME High	1,488	564	₦2.54bn	₦2.54bn	39%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	695	506	₦2.06bn	₦2.06bn	75%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	94,530	4,272	₦609m	₦609m
3.0	40,521	4,760	₦13.4bn	₦13.1bn
2.0	34,661	2,954	₦3.34bn	₦3.32bn
4.0	14,114	340	₦1.71bn	₦1.71bn
1.0	10,613	1,116	₦806m	₦799m
5.0	813	137	₦697m	₦697m
6.0	92	15	₦281m	₦281m