Kaduna State

Rooftop solar in Zaria, Kaduna: what the roofs are worth

Zaria has 205,711 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.8 GWp of roof capacity. 18% run a generator, and together they spend ₦69.6bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

205,711

Usable roof area

12.6 km²

2.8 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦69.6bn/yr

57.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Zaria

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦69.6bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦68.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.77tn

NPV₦569bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy70.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity252 MWp

Capex₦256bn

Year-one energy value₦215bn

Lifetime energy value₦10.2tn

NPV₦1.7tn

Median IRR79%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Zaria's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 252 MWp
Capital cost: ₦256bn
Year 1 savings: ₦215bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.7tn
Median IRR: 79%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Zaria pays back quickly

Of the 203,825 buildings in Zaria with a modelled payback, 65.1% pay back inside five years and 20.0% inside three.

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How much of Zaria's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Zaria consume 143 GWh/yr but want 214 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Zaria

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Zaria actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 203,825 buildings with a modelled result out of 205,711 in Zaria. 166,720 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years40,708 (20%)

Under 5 years132,633 (65%)

Under 7 years167,025 (82%)

Under 10 years186,212 (91%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%183,133 (89%)

Above 15%166,720 (81%)

Above 20%143,023 (70%)

Above 25%113,044 (55%)

CO₂ avoided

136 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

28.6 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

70.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

526k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Zaria.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Zaria

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	126,764	21,897	₦36.9bn	₦36.2bn	29%	3.9 yr
A	35,218	1,492	₦1.64bn	₦1.64bn	21%	5.1 yr
C	20,773	6,329	₦18.4bn	₦18.1bn	31%	3.6 yr
D	13,323	5,027	₦8.96bn	₦8.96bn	31%	3.6 yr
E	9,633	2,647	₦3.76bn	₦3.76bn	23%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	195,328	33,050	₦41.8bn	₦40.9bn	25%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	5,426	2,333	₦19.1bn	₦19bn	39%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	4,145	1,672	₦821m	₦821m	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	621	247	₦7.73bn	₦7.72bn	49%	2.1 yr
Worship	116	69	₦70m	₦70m	41%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	33	8	₦63.2m	₦63.2m	39%	2.9 yr
Industrial	17	8	₦11.9m	₦11.9m	41%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	10	1	₦6.48m	₦6.48m	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	9	3	₦11.8m	₦11.8m	39%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	5	0	₦1.62m	₦1.62m	37%	2.9 yr
Automotive	1	1	₦1.02m	₦1.02m	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	61,317	9,655	₦1.34bn	₦1.34bn	15%	6.4 yr
50 100m2	54,907	10,063	₦8.79bn	₦8.75bn	29%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	45,173	9,897	₦26.2bn	₦25.5bn	31%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	37,299	5,905	₦2bn	₦1.9bn	23%	4.9 yr
250 1000m2	6,875	1,808	₦21.8bn	₦21.6bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	140	64	₦9.58bn	₦9.55bn	39%	2.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	160,244	24,225	₦42.3bn	₦41.7bn	27%	4.1 yr
Urban	30,880	10,962	₦20.9bn	₦20.7bn	31%	3.6 yr
Unclassified	10,548	1,178	₦5.16bn	₦4.88bn	29%	3.6 yr
Rural	4,039	1,027	₦1.33bn	₦1.33bn	25%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	80,100	5,004	₦4.06bn	₦4.06bn	23%	4.6 yr
Shed	41,494	7,421	₦877m	₦877m	19%	5.4 yr
Residential Formal	33,546	6,505	₦2.6bn	₦2.59bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential Small	26,521	9,465	₦9.4bn	₦8.89bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	11,254	4,009	₦24.7bn	₦24.3bn	31%	3.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	4,142	1,672	₦821m	₦821m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	3,277	1,552	₦13.8bn	₦13.7bn	39%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,678	619	₦4.63bn	₦4.62bn	39%	2.9 yr
Apartment	1,347	311	₦120m	₦120m	31%	3.6 yr
Duplex	1,066	335	₦102m	₦102m	31%	3.6 yr
Institutional	309	150	₦7.03bn	₦7.03bn	35%	3.1 yr
Educational Facility	213	93	₦266m	₦266m	49%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	204,539	37,119	₦69.3bn	₦68.3bn
Farmland	1,117	273	₦323m	₦323m
Industrial	55	0	₦1.32m	₦1.32m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	200,095	34,963	₦43.5bn	₦42.6bn	27%	4.1 yr
SME High	4,995	2,180	₦18.4bn	₦18.4bn	39%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	621	249	₦7.73bn	₦7.72bn	49%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	59,700	8,423	₦11.8bn	₦11.7bn
3.0	52,643	11,667	₦38.1bn	₦37.3bn
2.0	41,865	7,096	₦6.33bn	₦6.2bn
0.0	33,969	7,212	₦801m	₦801m
1.0	14,470	1,863	₦1.17bn	₦1.14bn
5.0	2,645	951	₦6.39bn	₦6.37bn
6.0	419	180	₦5.1bn	₦5.08bn