Kaduna State

Rooftop solar in Kagarko, Kaduna: what the roofs are worth

Kagarko has 117,323 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.11 GWp of roof capacity. 9% run a generator, and together they spend ₦39.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

117,323

Usable roof area

5 km²

1.11 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦39.5bn/yr

40.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

6.9 yr

Median IRR 13% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kagarko

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦39.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦38.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2tn

NPV₦312bn

Median IRR13%

Median payback6.9 yr

Unlocked energy24.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity152 MWp

Capex₦157bn

Year-one energy value₦151bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.14tn

NPV₦1.22tn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Kagarko's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 152 MWp
Capital cost: ₦157bn
Year 1 savings: ₦151bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.22tn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kagarko pays back quickly

Of the 112,779 buildings in Kagarko with a modelled payback, 39.1% pay back inside five years and 9.7% inside three.

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How much of Kagarko's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kagarko consume 65.2 GWh/yr but want 90.1 GWh/yr. The 28% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kagarko

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kagarko actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 112,779 buildings with a modelled result out of 117,323 in Kagarko. 56,572 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years10,977 (10%)

Under 5 years44,070 (39%)

Under 7 years56,617 (50%)

Under 10 years70,782 (63%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%66,940 (57%)

Above 15%56,572 (48%)

Above 20%47,639 (41%)

Above 25%37,736 (32%)

CO₂ avoided

65.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

18.1 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

24.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

366k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kagarko.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kagarko

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	38,563	4,152	₦10.6bn	₦10.3bn	11%	8.6 yr
D	37,027	2,542	₦8.3bn	₦8bn	9%	9.6 yr
C	30,960	3,292	₦6.71bn	₦6.67bn	19%	5.6 yr
B	8,631	967	₦13.7bn	₦13.5bn	19%	4.9 yr
A	2,142	39	₦176m	₦176m	21%	4.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	112,848	8,338	₦20.6bn	₦19.9bn	13%	7.6 yr
Commercial Retail	1,785	611	₦187m	₦187m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial General	1,458	958	₦3.89bn	₦3.88bn	51%	2.1 yr
Anchor	747	632	₦14.3bn	₦14.3bn	83%	1.4 yr
Worship	469	440	₦421m	₦421m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	13	11	₦52m	₦52m	75%	1.4 yr
Hospitality	2	2	₦1.32m	₦1.32m	55%	1.4 yr
Filling Station	1	0	₦332k	₦332k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	50,345	2,647	₦493m	₦475m	5%	16.1 yr
50 100m2	29,046	3,214	₦4.07bn	₦4.06bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	22,368	1,808	₦852m	₦805m	11%	8.6 yr
100 250m2	13,864	2,687	₦10.3bn	₦9.92bn	29%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	1,590	565	₦9.51bn	₦9.25bn	29%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	110	71	₦14.2bn	₦14.2bn	61%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	51,125	2,619	₦14.4bn	₦14.2bn	7%	13.9 yr
Rural	30,101	3,312	₦7.43bn	₦7.01bn	19%	5.6 yr
Urban	18,973	2,957	₦14.1bn	₦13.9bn	17%	5.6 yr
Dense Urban	16,961	1,974	₦3.12bn	₦3.12bn	21%	5.1 yr
Urban Centre	163	130	₦432m	₦432m	53%	2.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	53,218	2,500	₦375m	₦375m	7%	15.4 yr
Residential Small	34,681	3,674	₦4.91bn	₦4.84bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	16,149	1,964	₦15.1bn	₦14.4bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Formal	6,213	0	₦83.9m	₦68.2m	11%	7.1 yr
Residential Informal	2,497	200	₦183m	₦183m	23%	4.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,785	611	₦187m	₦187m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	747	401	₦1.95bn	₦1.94bn	45%	2.4 yr
Institutional	586	513	₦13.6bn	₦13.6bn	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	306	253	₦389m	₦389m	87%	1.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	288	227	₦1.35bn	₦1.35bn	63%	1.6 yr
School	243	204	₦223m	₦223m	87%	1.1 yr
Worship Center	156	145	₦74.9m	₦74.9m	69%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	117,266	10,992	₦39.4bn	₦38.6bn
Farmland	44	0	₦2.35m	₦2.35m
Industrial	13	0	₦69.6m	₦69.6m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	115,530	9,723	₦21.8bn	₦21.1bn	13%	7.1 yr
SME High	1,037	629	₦3.3bn	₦3.29bn	51%	2.1 yr
Enterprise	756	640	₦14.3bn	₦14.3bn	81%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	53,285	2,536	₦379m	₦379m
3.0	23,786	3,982	₦30.6bn	₦30.1bn
2.0	23,304	2,729	₦4.67bn	₦4.52bn
1.0	10,718	1,432	₦997m	₦995m
4.0	6,206	294	₦1.94bn	₦1.92bn
5.0	23	19	₦840m	₦833m
6.0	1	0	₦339k	₦339k