Kaduna State

Rooftop solar in Birnin Gwari, Kaduna: what the roofs are worth

Birnin Gwari has 121,923 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.03 GWp of roof capacity. 11% run a generator, and together they spend ₦17.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

121,923

Usable roof area

4.67 km²

1.03 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦17.1bn/yr

14.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

7.4 yr

Median IRR 13% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Birnin Gwari

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦17.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦16.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦915bn

NPV₦138bn

Median IRR13%

Median payback7.4 yr

Unlocked energy17 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity107 MWp

Capex₦114bn

Year-one energy value₦120bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.72tn

NPV₦985bn

Median IRR109%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Birnin Gwari's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 107 MWp
Capital cost: ₦114bn
Year 1 savings: ₦120bn/yr
NPV: ₦985bn
Median IRR: 109%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Birnin Gwari pays back quickly

Of the 120,406 buildings in Birnin Gwari with a modelled payback, 38.2% pay back inside five years and 11.1% inside three.

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How much of Birnin Gwari's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Birnin Gwari consume 29.9 GWh/yr but want 47 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Birnin Gwari

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Birnin Gwari actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 120,406 buildings with a modelled result out of 121,923 in Birnin Gwari. 58,995 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years13,415 (11%)

Under 5 years46,013 (38%)

Under 7 years59,070 (49%)

Under 10 years77,179 (64%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%71,474 (59%)

Above 15%58,995 (48%)

Above 20%49,822 (41%)

Above 25%39,222 (32%)

CO₂ avoided

33.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

8.05 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

17 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

362k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Birnin Gwari.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Birnin Gwari

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	57,461	5,578	₦6.27bn	₦6.1bn	11%	8.9 yr
E	42,850	4,438	₦5.71bn	₦5.64bn	11%	8.9 yr
B	15,411	2,096	₦3.23bn	₦3.23bn	23%	4.6 yr
C	6,201	1,353	₦1.92bn	₦1.91bn	21%	5.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	118,869	10,901	₦13.1bn	₦12.9bn	13%	7.9 yr
Commercial Retail	1,540	1,281	₦298m	₦298m	67%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	916	813	₦2.02bn	₦2.02bn	63%	1.6 yr
Anchor	433	348	₦1.63bn	₦1.58bn	83%	1.4 yr
Worship	142	109	₦54.6m	₦54.6m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	18	13	₦26.8m	₦26.8m	73%	1.4 yr
Hospitality	4	0	₦196k	₦196k	31%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	1	0	₦311k	₦311k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	51,373	4,178	₦572m	₦572m	7%	15.1 yr
30 50m2	29,138	3,130	₦939m	₦937m	11%	8.6 yr
50 100m2	28,242	3,464	₦2.99bn	₦2.99bn	27%	3.9 yr
100 250m2	11,492	2,185	₦6.55bn	₦6.35bn	29%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	1,652	496	₦5.02bn	₦4.96bn	31%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	26	12	₦1.06bn	₦1.06bn	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	49,155	1,958	₦5.14bn	₦5.1bn	9%	13.6 yr
Rural	36,981	3,914	₦4.39bn	₦4.24bn	11%	8.4 yr
Urban Centre	14,952	2,133	₦2.93bn	₦2.93bn	23%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	13,561	3,530	₦2.59bn	₦2.53bn	23%	4.9 yr
Urban	7,274	1,930	₦2.08bn	₦2.07bn	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	61,657	4,293	₦569m	₦569m	7%	14.1 yr
Residential Small	31,052	4,213	₦3.29bn	₦3.29bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential	11,251	1,544	₦8.58bn	₦8.39bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential Informal	8,759	683	₦502m	₦502m	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	6,082	149	₦147m	₦147m	21%	5.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,540	1,281	₦298m	₦298m	67%	1.6 yr
Commercial	340	302	₦819m	₦819m	71%	1.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	329	317	₦629m	₦629m	69%	1.6 yr
Institutional	284	224	₦1.26bn	₦1.26bn	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	198	155	₦241m	₦241m	87%	1.1 yr
School	130	105	₦108m	₦108m	87%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	53	44	₦313m	₦304m	57%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	121,916	13,465	₦17.1bn	₦16.9bn
Commercial	6	0	₦595k	₦595k
Farmland	1	0	₦1.66k	₦1.66k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	120,804	12,486	₦14bn	₦13.8bn	13%	7.6 yr
SME High	671	620	₦1.49bn	₦1.49bn	71%	1.4 yr
Enterprise	448	359	₦1.66bn	₦1.6bn	83%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	61,663	4,315	₦571m	₦571m
3.0	22,292	4,411	₦11.4bn	₦11.3bn
2.0	20,946	2,560	₦2.72bn	₦2.55bn
1.0	9,160	1,568	₦827m	₦827m
4.0	7,775	551	₦1.49bn	₦1.49bn
5.0	78	55	₦92.3m	₦92.3m
6.0	9	5	₦17.9m	₦17.9m