Kaduna State

Rooftop solar in Sanga, Kaduna: what the roofs are worth

Sanga has 78,595 buildings with a viable rooftop and 729 MWp of roof capacity. 11% run a generator, and together they spend ₦15.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

78,595

Usable roof area

3.28 km²

729 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦15.5bn/yr

13.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

6.1 yr

Median IRR 15% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Sanga

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦15.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦15bn

Lifetime cash saved₦807bn

NPV₦123bn

Median IRR15%

Median payback6.1 yr

Unlocked energy14.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity108 MWp

Capex₦114bn

Year-one energy value₦117bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.56tn

NPV₦955bn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Sanga's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 108 MWp
Capital cost: ₦114bn
Year 1 savings: ₦117bn/yr
NPV: ₦955bn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Sanga pays back quickly

Of the 76,044 buildings in Sanga with a modelled payback, 45.6% pay back inside five years and 11.7% inside three.

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How much of Sanga's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Sanga consume 25.9 GWh/yr but want 40.9 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Sanga

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Sanga actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 76,044 buildings with a modelled result out of 78,595 in Sanga. 39,666 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years8,868 (12%)

Under 5 years34,706 (46%)

Under 7 years39,673 (52%)

Under 10 years49,102 (65%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%45,951 (58%)

Above 15%39,666 (50%)

Above 20%36,308 (46%)

Above 25%31,115 (40%)

CO₂ avoided

29 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

7.29 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

14.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

318k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Sanga.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Sanga

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	36,733	4,386	₦7.66bn	₦7.32bn	17%	5.6 yr
E	31,876	3,055	₦5.92bn	₦5.79bn	11%	8.4 yr
C	9,986	1,413	₦1.9bn	₦1.9bn	17%	5.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	74,317	5,364	₦11.4bn	₦11.2bn	11%	7.4 yr
Commercial Retail	2,001	1,573	₦236m	₦236m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	1,528	1,253	₦1.88bn	₦1.88bn	61%	1.6 yr
Anchor	537	456	₦1.75bn	₦1.54bn	79%	1.4 yr
Worship	202	199	₦178m	₦178m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	10	9	₦29.2m	₦29.2m	65%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	31,888	2,477	₦320m	₦320m	5%	15.4 yr
50 100m2	20,058	2,423	₦3.03bn	₦3.03bn	27%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	14,987	1,706	₦565m	₦565m	11%	8.9 yr
100 250m2	10,980	2,003	₦7.45bn	₦7.21bn	29%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	676	242	₦3.37bn	₦3.37bn	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	6	3	₦743m	₦535m	33%	1.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	30,239	1,411	₦4.6bn	₦4.48bn	9%	13.1 yr
Urban	17,623	4,939	₦6.52bn	₦6.21bn	27%	4.1 yr
Rural	17,448	1,355	₦2.58bn	₦2.56bn	21%	5.1 yr
Dense Urban	13,285	1,149	₦1.78bn	₦1.78bn	19%	5.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	37,453	2,182	₦288m	₦288m	7%	14.6 yr
Residential Small	22,313	1,988	₦3.17bn	₦3.17bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential	8,689	1,117	₦7.84bn	₦7.6bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Formal	5,765	75	₦107m	₦107m	19%	5.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,001	1,573	₦236m	₦236m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial	707	644	₦675m	₦675m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	509	353	₦571m	₦571m	63%	1.6 yr
Institutional	356	307	₦742m	₦742m	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	223	196	₦359m	₦359m	85%	1.1 yr
School	152	137	₦155m	₦155m	85%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	88	69	₦1.04bn	₦834m	55%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	70	69	₦38.1m	₦38.1m	67%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	78,570	8,854	₦15.5bn	₦15bn
Industrial	25	0	₦1.68m	₦1.68m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	76,837	7,396	₦12.5bn	₦12.2bn	13%	6.4 yr
SME High	1,216	997	₦1.25bn	₦1.25bn	61%	1.6 yr
Enterprise	542	461	₦1.77bn	₦1.56bn	79%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	37,480	2,204	₦291m	₦291m
3.0	15,625	2,722	₦9.86bn	₦9.51bn
2.0	14,423	1,922	₦3.8bn	₦3.69bn
1.0	5,512	1,553	₦724m	₦724m
4.0	5,255	185	₦591m	₦591m
5.0	293	261	₦191m	₦191m
6.0	7	7	₦24.3m	₦24.3m