Kaduna State

Rooftop solar in Kaura, Kaduna: what the roofs are worth

Kaura has 53,174 buildings with a viable rooftop and 648 MWp of roof capacity. 16% run a generator, and together they spend ₦19.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

53,174

Usable roof area

2.9 km²

648 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦19.2bn/yr

16.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kaura

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦19.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦19.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.02tn

NPV₦159bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy17.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity88.8 MWp

Capex₦92.6bn

Year-one energy value₦94.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.51tn

NPV₦774bn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Kaura's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 88.8 MWp
Capital cost: ₦92.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦94.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦774bn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kaura pays back quickly

Of the 52,834 buildings in Kaura with a modelled payback, 55.3% pay back inside five years and 17.1% inside three.

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How much of Kaura's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kaura consume 32.2 GWh/yr but want 49.6 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kaura

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kaura actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 52,834 buildings with a modelled result out of 53,174 in Kaura. 34,458 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years9,058 (17%)

Under 5 years29,211 (55%)

Under 7 years34,480 (65%)

Under 10 years38,962 (74%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%37,367 (70%)

Above 15%34,458 (65%)

Above 20%30,574 (57%)

Above 25%26,741 (50%)

CO₂ avoided

36.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

9.31 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

17.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

264k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kaura.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kaura

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	19,612	3,913	₦9.23bn	₦9.21bn	29%	3.6 yr
D	17,765	2,538	₦5.55bn	₦5.49bn	23%	4.9 yr
E	13,942	1,756	₦4.16bn	₦4.1bn	19%	5.4 yr
B	1,855	269	₦254m	₦254m	23%	4.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	50,858	7,166	₦13.8bn	₦13.8bn	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial General	1,056	540	₦3.54bn	₦3.54bn	39%	2.6 yr
Commercial Retail	842	395	₦128m	₦128m	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	249	227	₦1.49bn	₦1.38bn	81%	1.4 yr
Worship	158	142	₦179m	₦179m	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial	11	6	₦4.71m	₦4.71m	47%	2.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	18,564	2,564	₦317m	₦305m	7%	14.6 yr
50 100m2	14,019	2,015	₦2.13bn	₦2.13bn	29%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	10,101	2,168	₦7.84bn	₦7.83bn	29%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	9,007	1,177	₦345m	₦345m	11%	8.4 yr
250 1000m2	1,457	535	₦7.2bn	₦7.2bn	31%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	26	17	₦1.36bn	₦1.24bn	69%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	27,530	5,320	₦10.5bn	₦10.5bn	27%	4.1 yr
Dense Urban	12,305	2,311	₦6.44bn	₦6.43bn	29%	3.9 yr
Unclassified	9,038	286	₦1.42bn	₦1.31bn	9%	9.4 yr
Urban Centre	2,489	485	₦516m	₦516m	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	1,812	74	₦303m	₦303m	11%	7.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	23,054	2,800	₦296m	₦296m	9%	13.6 yr
Residential Small	17,034	2,368	₦2.34bn	₦2.33bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	8,944	1,980	₦11.1bn	₦11.1bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential Informal	1,826	18	₦101m	₦101m	29%	3.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	842	395	₦128m	₦128m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	529	234	₦2.49bn	₦2.48bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	397	186	₦624m	₦624m	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	184	170	₦1.35bn	₦1.24bn	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	86	81	₦178m	₦178m	87%	1.1 yr
School	80	75	₦128m	₦128m	87%	1.1 yr
Worship Center	54	48	₦29m	₦29m	67%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	50	45	₦17.4m	₦17.4m	69%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	53,127	8,476	₦19.2bn	₦19.1bn
Farmyard	28	0	₦1.43m	₦1.43m
Farmland	19	0	₦689k	₦689k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	51,998	7,828	₦14.6bn	₦14.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	926	420	₦3.11bn	₦3.11bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	250	228	₦1.49bn	₦1.38bn	79%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	23,044	2,807	₦296m	₦296m
3.0	13,976	2,969	₦12.5bn	₦12.4bn
2.0	11,126	1,810	₦2.7bn	₦2.69bn
1.0	3,632	477	₦440m	₦440m
4.0	692	98	₦573m	₦571m
5.0	623	265	₦1.3bn	₦1.3bn
6.0	81	50	₦1.34bn	₦1.33bn