Kaduna State

Rooftop solar in Kudan, Kaduna: what the roofs are worth

Kudan has 64,728 buildings with a viable rooftop and 643 MWp of roof capacity. 22% run a generator, and together they spend ₦18.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

64,728

Usable roof area

2.89 km²

643 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦18.5bn/yr

15.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.9 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kudan

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦18.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦18.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦973bn

NPV₦155bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.9 yr

Unlocked energy15.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity71.4 MWp

Capex₦76.5bn

Year-one energy value₦83.8bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.99tn

NPV₦691bn

Median IRR109%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Kudan's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 71.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦76.5bn
Year 1 savings: ₦83.8bn/yr
NPV: ₦691bn
Median IRR: 109%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kudan pays back quickly

Of the 63,931 buildings in Kudan with a modelled payback, 51.5% pay back inside five years and 22.1% inside three.

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How much of Kudan's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kudan consume 27.4 GWh/yr but want 42.8 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kudan

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kudan actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 63,931 buildings with a modelled result out of 64,728 in Kudan. 40,676 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years14,114 (22%)

Under 5 years32,938 (52%)

Under 7 years40,753 (64%)

Under 10 years48,025 (75%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%45,813 (71%)

Above 15%40,676 (63%)

Above 20%35,034 (54%)

Above 25%29,404 (45%)

CO₂ avoided

34.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

9.77 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

15.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

239k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kudan.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kudan

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	25,394	4,138	₦5.09bn	₦5.09bn	23%	4.6 yr
D	20,524	5,216	₦6.67bn	₦6.66bn	21%	5.1 yr
E	18,810	4,641	₦6.72bn	₦6.66bn	17%	6.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	63,478	13,147	₦15.9bn	₦15.8bn	21%	4.9 yr
Commercial Retail	589	346	₦61.9m	₦61.9m	43%	2.4 yr
Commercial General	383	280	₦871m	₦871m	63%	1.6 yr
Anchor	218	180	₦1.6bn	₦1.6bn	65%	1.6 yr
Worship	50	41	₦22.3m	₦22.3m	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial	9	1	₦3.54m	₦3.54m	41%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	1	0	₦284k	₦284k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	27,620	4,890	₦520m	₦520m	9%	13.1 yr
50 100m2	13,627	3,166	₦2.75bn	₦2.75bn	31%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	13,301	2,732	₦663m	₦663m	19%	5.4 yr
100 250m2	8,656	2,633	₦8.09bn	₦8.01bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	1,511	565	₦5.18bn	₦5.18bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	13	9	₦1.27bn	₦1.27bn	63%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	37,039	10,912	₦13.5bn	₦13.4bn	27%	4.1 yr
Dense Urban	17,332	2,239	₦1.87bn	₦1.87bn	21%	4.9 yr
Unclassified	8,536	747	₦2.69bn	₦2.69bn	9%	13.1 yr
Rural	1,821	97	₦429m	₦429m	9%	12.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	31,112	5,390	₦555m	₦555m	9%	9.6 yr
Residential Small	13,393	3,908	₦3.27bn	₦3.27bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Informal	11,057	1,257	₦655m	₦655m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	7,916	2,592	₦11.4bn	₦11.4bn	31%	3.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	589	346	₦61.9m	₦61.9m	43%	2.4 yr
Institutional	137	111	₦1.07bn	₦1.07bn	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	129	127	₦420m	₦420m	71%	1.4 yr
Commercial	122	54	₦266m	₦266m	39%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	69	58	₦128m	₦128m	93%	1.1 yr
School	62	49	₦63.9m	₦63.9m	91%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	44	37	₦307m	₦307m	61%	1.6 yr
Clinic	37	32	₦225m	₦225m	61%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	64,728	13,995	₦18.5bn	₦18.4bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	64,255	13,634	₦16.2bn	₦16.1bn	21%	4.9 yr
SME High	252	181	₦686m	₦686m	71%	1.4 yr
Enterprise	221	180	₦1.6bn	₦1.6bn	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	31,125	5,397	₦555m	₦555m
3.0	14,578	4,369	₦13.8bn	₦13.7bn
2.0	12,959	2,686	₦2.55bn	₦2.55bn
1.0	3,591	993	₦481m	₦481m
4.0	2,425	544	₦841m	₦841m
5.0	42	3	₦106m	₦106m
6.0	8	3	₦162m	₦162m