Kaduna State

Rooftop solar in Jema'A, Kaduna: what the roofs are worth

Jema'A has 95,084 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.22 GWp of roof capacity. 22% run a generator, and together they spend ₦44.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

95,084

Usable roof area

5.48 km²

1.22 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦44.3bn/yr

39.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Jema'A

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦44.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦43.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.3tn

NPV₦359bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy34 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity173 MWp

Capex₦181bn

Year-one energy value₦181bn

Lifetime energy value₦8.58tn

NPV₦1.47tn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Jema'A's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 173 MWp
Capital cost: ₦181bn
Year 1 savings: ₦181bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.47tn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Jema'A pays back quickly

Of the 93,877 buildings in Jema'A with a modelled payback, 58.3% pay back inside five years and 21.8% inside three.

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How much of Jema'A's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Jema'A consume 66.9 GWh/yr but want 101 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Jema'A

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Jema'A actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 93,877 buildings with a modelled result out of 95,084 in Jema'A. 63,503 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years20,504 (22%)

Under 5 years54,724 (58%)

Under 7 years63,530 (68%)

Under 10 years73,413 (78%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%70,533 (74%)

Above 15%63,503 (67%)

Above 20%57,220 (60%)

Above 25%49,829 (52%)

CO₂ avoided

79.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

22.5 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

34 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

473k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Jema'A.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Jema'A

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	30,957	5,200	₦14.2bn	₦13.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	30,079	5,546	₦16.3bn	₦16bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	22,203	6,452	₦8.08bn	₦8.08bn	27%	3.9 yr
C	11,845	3,406	₦5.71bn	₦5.54bn	29%	3.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	92,045	17,970	₦34.7bn	₦33.8bn	25%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	1,252	1,088	₦3.56bn	₦3.56bn	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	655	610	₦137m	₦137m	65%	1.6 yr
Anchor	568	469	₦5.32bn	₦5.26bn	77%	1.4 yr
Worship	524	437	₦516m	₦516m	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial	31	26	₦32m	₦31.9m	71%	1.4 yr
Hospitality	5	2	₦9.29m	₦9.29m	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	3	1	₦72m	₦72m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	1	1	₦948k	₦948k	67%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	30,284	5,343	₦634m	₦628m	7%	13.9 yr
50 100m2	25,830	5,155	₦6.57bn	₦6.38bn	29%	3.9 yr
100 250m2	19,155	5,644	₦18.7bn	₦18.1bn	29%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	17,101	3,263	₦1.01bn	₦1.01bn	15%	7.1 yr
250 1000m2	2,652	1,160	₦12.5bn	₦12.5bn	29%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	62	39	₦4.9bn	₦4.84bn	61%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	25,015	6,399	₦16.4bn	₦16.3bn	29%	3.9 yr
Urban Centre	23,277	7,348	₦8.61bn	₦8.61bn	27%	3.9 yr
Rural	17,938	2,194	₦6.09bn	₦6.09bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	17,675	1,322	₦5.89bn	₦5.33bn	9%	9.4 yr
Dense Urban	11,179	3,341	₦7.35bn	₦7.13bn	29%	3.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	33,554	5,446	₦600m	₦600m	9%	13.1 yr
Residential Small	30,781	6,806	₦8.06bn	₦7.76bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential	12,190	3,937	₦24.4bn	₦23.8bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Informal	10,707	1,022	₦1.07bn	₦1.07bn	21%	4.9 yr
Residential Formal	4,465	668	₦528m	₦528m	27%	4.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	656	610	₦137m	₦137m	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	539	473	₦1.05bn	₦1.05bn	67%	1.6 yr
Institutional	479	409	₦4.32bn	₦4.32bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial	335	329	₦1.45bn	₦1.45bn	69%	1.6 yr
Apartment	259	65	₦51.5m	₦51.5m	29%	3.9 yr
Educational Facility	220	188	₦529m	₦529m	85%	1.1 yr
Worship Center	190	156	₦139m	₦139m	65%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	95,084	20,604	₦44.3bn	₦43.4bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	93,619	19,316	₦36.4bn	₦35.6bn	25%	4.1 yr
SME High	881	805	₦2.58bn	₦2.58bn	67%	1.6 yr
Enterprise	584	483	₦5.33bn	₦5.27bn	75%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	33,408	5,456	₦600m	₦600m
3.0	30,566	8,579	₦32.6bn	₦32.4bn
2.0	17,427	3,619	₦6.15bn	₦5.49bn
4.0	8,720	1,528	₦2.89bn	₦2.88bn
1.0	4,697	1,185	₦1.01bn	₦908m
5.0	232	203	₦724m	₦724m
6.0	34	34	₦412m	₦412m