Kaduna State

Rooftop solar in Zangon Kataf, Kaduna: what the roofs are worth

Zangon Kataf has 110,949 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.26 GWp of roof capacity. 16% run a generator, and together they spend ₦29.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

110,949

Usable roof area

5.65 km²

1.26 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦29.9bn/yr

28.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.9 yr

Median IRR 21% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Zangon Kataf

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦29.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦29.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.59tn

NPV₦250bn

Median IRR21%

Median payback4.9 yr

Unlocked energy27.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity148 MWp

Capex₦156bn

Year-one energy value₦166bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.93tn

NPV₦1.37tn

Median IRR113%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Zangon Kataf's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 148 MWp
Capital cost: ₦156bn
Year 1 savings: ₦166bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.37tn
Median IRR: 113%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Zangon Kataf pays back quickly

Of the 108,847 buildings in Zangon Kataf with a modelled payback, 51.0% pay back inside five years and 16.6% inside three.

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How much of Zangon Kataf's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Zangon Kataf consume 47.1 GWh/yr but want 74.5 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Zangon Kataf

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Zangon Kataf actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 108,847 buildings with a modelled result out of 110,949 in Zangon Kataf. 61,605 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years18,074 (17%)

Under 5 years55,562 (51%)

Under 7 years61,644 (57%)

Under 10 years72,038 (66%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%67,898 (61%)

Above 15%61,605 (56%)

Above 20%57,637 (52%)

Above 25%50,721 (46%)

CO₂ avoided

55.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

14.8 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

27.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

438k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Zangon Kataf.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Zangon Kataf

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	45,980	6,605	₦11bn	₦10.9bn	17%	5.6 yr
E	41,582	5,942	₦11.2bn	₦11.1bn	17%	5.6 yr
C	22,286	4,885	₦7.23bn	₦7.23bn	27%	3.9 yr
B	1,101	733	₦563m	₦563m	61%	1.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	107,602	15,096	₦20.8bn	₦20.7bn	21%	5.1 yr
Commercial General	1,365	1,265	₦5.27bn	₦5.27bn	67%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	860	747	₦230m	₦230m	69%	1.6 yr
Anchor	727	683	₦3.14bn	₦3.13bn	89%	1.1 yr
Worship	387	369	₦411m	₦411m	67%	1.6 yr
Industrial	5	3	₦9.17m	₦9.17m	67%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	2	1	₦28.7m	₦28.7m	31%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	1	1	₦4.73m	₦4.73m	61%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	40,351	4,537	₦552m	₦552m	5%	15.9 yr
50 100m2	27,657	4,609	₦3.84bn	₦3.8bn	29%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	20,814	2,643	₦732m	₦732m	11%	9.1 yr
100 250m2	19,730	5,285	₦13.4bn	₦13.3bn	29%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	2,360	1,068	₦9.74bn	₦9.67bn	31%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	37	23	₦1.68bn	₦1.68bn	65%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	42,728	1,641	₦4.6bn	₦4.5bn	7%	13.9 yr
Urban	42,378	10,928	₦17.3bn	₦17.2bn	27%	4.1 yr
Rural	17,050	2,413	₦3.96bn	₦3.96bn	25%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	6,192	1,474	₦2.11bn	₦2.11bn	29%	3.6 yr
Urban Centre	2,601	1,709	₦2bn	₦2bn	63%	1.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	52,860	4,967	₦579m	₦579m	7%	14.9 yr
Residential Small	34,766	5,471	₦4.31bn	₦4.26bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential	17,128	4,061	₦15.5bn	₦15.4bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	1,822	271	₦104m	₦104m	29%	3.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	860	747	₦230m	₦230m	69%	1.6 yr
Residential Informal	784	290	₦284m	₦284m	29%	3.6 yr
Commercial	766	695	₦3.54bn	₦3.54bn	71%	1.4 yr
Institutional	519	489	₦2.08bn	₦2.08bn	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	347	321	₦778m	₦778m	91%	1.1 yr
School	261	247	₦436m	₦436m	89%	1.1 yr
Apartment	194	32	₦10.7m	₦10.7m	29%	3.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	193	192	₦680m	₦680m	73%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	110,949	18,165	₦29.9bn	₦29.8bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	109,258	16,592	₦22.5bn	₦22.4bn	21%	4.9 yr
SME High	961	889	₦4.24bn	₦4.24bn	71%	1.4 yr
Enterprise	730	684	₦3.14bn	₦3.14bn	89%	1.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	52,891	4,994	₦582m	₦582m
3.0	26,014	7,143	₦20.5bn	₦20.4bn
2.0	20,603	3,666	₦4.66bn	₦4.65bn
1.0	8,863	1,643	₦1.03bn	₦989m
4.0	2,395	594	₦2.25bn	₦2.25bn
5.0	167	114	₦843m	₦843m
6.0	16	11	₦55.5m	₦55.5m