Kaduna State

Rooftop solar in Makarfi, Kaduna: what the roofs are worth

Makarfi has 91,004 buildings with a viable rooftop and 865 MWp of roof capacity. 15% run a generator, and together they spend ₦16.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

91,004

Usable roof area

3.89 km²

865 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦16.1bn/yr

12.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.1 yr

Median IRR 21% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Makarfi

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦16.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦15.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦870bn

NPV₦134bn

Median IRR21%

Median payback5.1 yr

Unlocked energy19 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity89.3 MWp

Capex₦94.4bn

Year-one energy value₦98.4bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.68tn

NPV₦806bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Makarfi's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 89.3 MWp
Capital cost: ₦94.4bn
Year 1 savings: ₦98.4bn/yr
NPV: ₦806bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Makarfi pays back quickly

Of the 89,876 buildings in Makarfi with a modelled payback, 47.4% pay back inside five years and 16.6% inside three.

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How much of Makarfi's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Makarfi consume 29.5 GWh/yr but want 48.6 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Makarfi

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Makarfi actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 89,876 buildings with a modelled result out of 91,004 in Makarfi. 54,984 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years14,906 (17%)

Under 5 years42,602 (47%)

Under 7 years55,085 (61%)

Under 10 years66,382 (74%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%63,213 (69%)

Above 15%54,984 (60%)

Above 20%46,289 (51%)

Above 25%37,342 (41%)

CO₂ avoided

32.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

7.41 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

19 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

288k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Makarfi.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Makarfi

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	39,659	5,529	₦7.09bn	₦7.01bn	23%	4.6 yr
E	23,074	4,044	₦4.13bn	₦4.01bn	11%	8.6 yr
D	20,652	3,097	₦4.14bn	₦4.1bn	11%	8.9 yr
B	7,416	651	₦607m	₦597m	19%	5.4 yr
A	203	56	₦155m	₦155m	17%	6.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	86,718	11,635	₦12.4bn	₦12.1bn	19%	5.4 yr
Commercial Retail	2,263	672	₦202m	₦202m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	1,402	572	₦1.73bn	₦1.73bn	39%	2.9 yr
Anchor	388	300	₦1.69bn	₦1.67bn	69%	1.6 yr
Worship	222	192	₦142m	₦142m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	11	6	₦6.98m	₦6.98m	71%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	37,395	4,417	₦542m	₦539m	9%	13.6 yr
50 100m2	20,488	3,189	₦2.9bn	₦2.8bn	31%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	20,332	2,831	₦857m	₦801m	17%	6.1 yr
100 250m2	11,107	2,464	₦6.51bn	₦6.44bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	1,640	456	₦4.11bn	₦4.1bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	42	20	₦1.2bn	₦1.2bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	55,958	11,074	₦12.4bn	₦12.3bn	21%	5.1 yr
Dense Urban	19,047	1,790	₦2.05bn	₦2bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	13,774	493	₦1.58bn	₦1.5bn	9%	12.9 yr
Rural	2,225	20	₦92.2m	₦92.2m	13%	7.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	42,100	4,708	₦495m	₦495m	9%	12.9 yr
Residential Small	25,933	4,098	₦3.43bn	₦3.27bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential	10,856	2,344	₦8.15bn	₦8.08bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential Informal	7,829	485	₦274m	₦274m	21%	5.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,263	672	₦202m	₦202m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	793	206	₦663m	₦663m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	394	210	₦781m	₦781m	41%	2.6 yr
Institutional	282	226	₦1.17bn	₦1.17bn	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	157	124	₦224m	₦224m	89%	1.1 yr
School	119	90	₦89.9m	₦89.9m	83%	1.1 yr
Worship Center	74	63	₦31.8m	₦31.8m	69%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	72	63	₦15.4m	₦15.4m	69%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	91,000	13,376	₦16.1bn	₦15.9bn
Farmland	4	1	₦691k	₦691k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	89,425	12,660	₦13bn	₦12.8bn	19%	5.4 yr
SME High	1,188	416	₦1.44bn	₦1.44bn	39%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	391	301	₦1.69bn	₦1.67bn	69%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	42,112	4,725	₦496m	₦496m
3.0	20,216	4,104	₦10.3bn	₦10.2bn
2.0	18,347	2,829	₦3.02bn	₦2.85bn
1.0	5,805	1,365	₦699m	₦678m
4.0	3,910	293	₦1.09bn	₦1.09bn
5.0	548	53	₦374m	₦374m
6.0	66	8	₦165m	₦165m