Kaduna State

Rooftop solar in Kauru, Kaduna: what the roofs are worth

Kauru has 114,944 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.06 GWp of roof capacity. 12% run a generator, and together they spend ₦23.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

114,944

Usable roof area

4.79 km²

1.06 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦23.1bn/yr

20 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

8.4 yr

Median IRR 11% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kauru

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦23.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦23bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.24tn

NPV₦193bn

Median IRR11%

Median payback8.4 yr

Unlocked energy19 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity132 MWp

Capex₦142bn

Year-one energy value₦160bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.62tn

NPV₦1.32tn

Median IRR113%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Kauru's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 132 MWp
Capital cost: ₦142bn
Year 1 savings: ₦160bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.32tn
Median IRR: 113%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kauru pays back quickly

Of the 113,397 buildings in Kauru with a modelled payback, 42.6% pay back inside five years and 12.4% inside three.

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How much of Kauru's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kauru consume 35 GWh/yr but want 54 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kauru

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kauru actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 113,397 buildings with a modelled result out of 114,944 in Kauru. 53,603 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years14,007 (12%)

Under 5 years48,264 (43%)

Under 7 years53,644 (47%)

Under 10 years67,570 (60%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%62,706 (55%)

Above 15%53,603 (47%)

Above 20%50,138 (44%)

Above 25%44,220 (38%)

CO₂ avoided

43 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

12 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

19 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

473k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kauru.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kauru

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	51,045	5,015	₦9.76bn	₦9.67bn	9%	9.4 yr
E	46,716	5,294	₦8.56bn	₦8.56bn	11%	9.1 yr
C	17,183	3,686	₦4.82bn	₦4.82bn	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	113,152	12,343	₦19.4bn	₦19.4bn	11%	8.6 yr
Worship	914	867	₦816m	₦816m	67%	1.6 yr
Anchor	462	429	₦2.1bn	₦2.1bn	89%	1.1 yr
Commercial General	351	318	₦734m	₦734m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	37	18	₦4.72m	₦4.72m	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial	28	20	₦39.9m	₦39.9m	69%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	48,267	3,294	₦469m	₦469m	5%	16.6 yr
50 100m2	26,163	3,826	₦3.49bn	₦3.49bn	29%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	24,647	2,720	₦904m	₦904m	11%	8.9 yr
100 250m2	13,755	3,253	₦9.58bn	₦9.49bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	2,092	893	₦7.45bn	₦7.45bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	20	9	₦1.24bn	₦1.24bn	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	64,473	3,512	₦9.48bn	₦9.39bn	7%	13.6 yr
Rural	37,370	5,096	₦7.95bn	₦7.95bn	21%	5.4 yr
Urban	7,229	3,327	₦3.95bn	₦3.95bn	31%	3.6 yr
Dense Urban	5,872	2,060	₦1.76bn	₦1.76bn	29%	3.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	64,301	3,994	₦606m	₦606m	7%	15.1 yr
Residential Small	33,530	5,005	₦4.28bn	₦4.28bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	13,241	2,727	₦14.3bn	₦14.2bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Informal	2,080	617	₦285m	₦285m	29%	3.6 yr
Institutional	560	522	₦1.57bn	₦1.57bn	63%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	312	296	₦155m	₦155m	71%	1.4 yr
Place Of Worship	294	280	₦89.1m	₦89.1m	69%	1.4 yr
Educational Facility	230	211	₦328m	₦328m	91%	1.1 yr
School	137	127	₦113m	₦113m	91%	1.1 yr
Commercial	84	75	₦199m	₦199m	69%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	52	50	₦913m	₦913m	61%	1.6 yr
Clinic	39	37	₦264m	₦264m	61%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	114,944	13,995	₦23.1bn	₦23bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	114,385	13,479	₦20.8bn	₦20.7bn	11%	8.6 yr
Enterprise	474	440	₦2.11bn	₦2.11bn	89%	1.1 yr
SME High	85	76	₦200m	₦200m	69%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	64,333	4,044	₦611m	₦611m
3.0	22,519	5,416	₦16.9bn	₦16.9bn
2.0	19,208	3,212	₦4.38bn	₦4.34bn
1.0	8,226	1,085	₦877m	₦877m
4.0	653	234	₦340m	₦340m
5.0	3	2	₦4.86m	₦4.86m
6.0	2	2	₦24.5m	₦24.5m