Kaduna State

Rooftop solar in Kajuru, Kaduna: what the roofs are worth

Kajuru has 73,815 buildings with a viable rooftop and 535 MWp of roof capacity. 6% run a generator, and together they spend ₦5.09bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

73,815

Usable roof area

2.43 km²

535 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦5.09bn/yr

3.86 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.6 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kajuru

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦5.09bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦5.09bn

Lifetime cash saved₦293bn

NPV₦41.4bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback9.6 yr

Unlocked energy8.35 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity57.1 MWp

Capex₦60.3bn

Year-one energy value₦61.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.95tn

NPV₦506bn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Kajuru's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 57.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦60.3bn
Year 1 savings: ₦61.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦506bn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kajuru pays back quickly

Of the 72,704 buildings in Kajuru with a modelled payback, 32.5% pay back inside five years and 8.1% inside three.

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How much of Kajuru's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kajuru consume 11.9 GWh/yr but want 20.2 GWh/yr. The 41% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kajuru

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kajuru actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 72,704 buildings with a modelled result out of 73,815 in Kajuru. 29,780 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years5,880 (8%)

Under 5 years23,624 (32%)

Under 7 years29,817 (41%)

Under 10 years39,282 (54%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%35,372 (48%)

Above 15%29,780 (40%)

Above 20%25,493 (35%)

Above 25%20,312 (28%)

CO₂ avoided

11.7 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

1.9 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

8.35 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

187k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kajuru.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kajuru

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	30,612	1,490	₦2.12bn	₦2.12bn	9%	9.9 yr
E	24,066	1,600	₦1.31bn	₦1.31bn	9%	13.4 yr
C	18,910	1,492	₦1.58bn	₦1.58bn	17%	5.9 yr
B	227	48	₦76.7m	₦76.7m	31%	3.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	70,072	3,048	₦3.14bn	₦3.14bn	9%	9.9 yr
Commercial Retail	1,747	611	₦156m	₦156m	35%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	1,279	402	₦862m	₦862m	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	384	297	₦652m	₦652m	83%	1.4 yr
Worship	328	269	₦277m	₦277m	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial	2	1	₦1.47m	₦1.47m	39%	1.4 yr
Mall Retail	2	2	₦916k	₦916k	69%	1.4 yr
Hospitality	1	0	₦153k	₦153k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	34,525	1,376	₦218m	₦218m	5%	15.9 yr
30 50m2	18,430	948	₦330m	₦330m	11%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	14,674	1,201	₦1.11bn	₦1.11bn	29%	3.9 yr
100 250m2	5,664	955	₦2.04bn	₦2.04bn	29%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	508	144	₦1.12bn	₦1.12bn	31%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	14	6	₦279m	₦279m	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	31,988	505	₦1.24bn	₦1.24bn	7%	14.1 yr
Rural	18,360	920	₦1.32bn	₦1.32bn	9%	9.6 yr
Urban	15,069	2,128	₦1.55bn	₦1.55bn	15%	6.6 yr
Dense Urban	8,398	1,077	₦989m	₦989m	25%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	43,058	1,188	₦189m	₦189m	7%	14.9 yr
Residential Small	17,701	1,173	₦1.05bn	₦1.05bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	6,436	687	₦1.85bn	₦1.85bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential Informal	2,877	0	₦51m	₦51m	19%	5.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,747	611	₦156m	₦156m	35%	2.9 yr
Commercial	688	141	₦370m	₦370m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	377	99	₦232m	₦232m	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	316	252	₦681m	₦681m	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	168	128	₦135m	₦135m	87%	1.1 yr
School	142	108	₦91.8m	₦91.8m	85%	1.1 yr
Worship Center	114	94	₦48.6m	₦48.6m	67%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	104	85	₦15.9m	₦15.9m	65%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	73,815	4,630	₦5.09bn	₦5.09bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	72,369	4,094	₦3.84bn	₦3.83bn	9%	9.6 yr
SME High	1,067	242	₦603m	₦603m	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	379	294	₦653m	₦653m	83%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	43,080	1,205	₦191m	₦191m
2.0	13,126	1,127	₦1.08bn	₦1.08bn
3.0	9,865	1,482	₦2.97bn	₦2.97bn
1.0	5,623	674	₦333m	₦332m
4.0	1,419	50	₦185m	₦185m
5.0	675	88	₦270m	₦270m
6.0	27	4	₦64.9m	₦64.9m