Kaduna State

Rooftop solar in Jaba, Kaduna: what the roofs are worth

Jaba has 33,730 buildings with a viable rooftop and 481 MWp of roof capacity. 30% run a generator, and together they spend ₦29.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

33,730

Usable roof area

2.15 km²

481 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦29.5bn/yr

26.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

3.9 yr

Median IRR 29% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Jaba

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦29.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦28.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.48tn

NPV₦239bn

Median IRR29%

Median payback3.9 yr

Unlocked energy18.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity83.8 MWp

Capex₦88.6bn

Year-one energy value₦91.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.36tn

NPV₦749bn

Median IRR113%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Jaba's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 83.8 MWp
Capital cost: ₦88.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦91.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦749bn
Median IRR: 113%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Jaba pays back quickly

Of the 33,360 buildings in Jaba with a modelled payback, 69.6% pay back inside five years and 30.5% inside three.

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How much of Jaba's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Jaba consume 39.2 GWh/yr but want 58.1 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Jaba

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Jaba actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 33,360 buildings with a modelled result out of 33,730 in Jaba. 26,055 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years10,168 (30%)

Under 5 years23,223 (70%)

Under 7 years26,062 (78%)

Under 10 years29,000 (87%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%28,148 (83%)

Above 15%26,055 (77%)

Above 20%24,074 (71%)

Above 25%21,676 (64%)

CO₂ avoided

50.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

15.9 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

18.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

221k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Jaba.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Jaba

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	11,602	3,032	₦7.08bn	₦6.9bn	29%	3.9 yr
E	10,260	3,768	₦11.2bn	₦10.7bn	29%	3.9 yr
C	9,032	3,172	₦10.9bn	₦10.6bn	29%	3.6 yr
B	2,836	178	₦305m	₦305m	23%	4.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	32,572	9,077	₦25.5bn	₦24.8bn	29%	3.9 yr
Worship	382	358	₦621m	₦621m	67%	1.6 yr
Anchor	330	299	₦1.92bn	₦1.76bn	85%	1.1 yr
Commercial General	322	297	₦1.34bn	₦1.34bn	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	112	112	₦47.5m	₦47.5m	71%	1.4 yr
Industrial	10	7	₦7.16m	₦7.16m	47%	1.9 yr
Mall Retail	2	0	₦1.09m	₦1.09m	35%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
50 100m2	9,823	2,796	₦3.74bn	₦3.74bn	29%	3.9 yr
Under 30m2	8,822	2,193	₦328m	₦328m	9%	9.6 yr
100 250m2	8,444	2,982	₦13.8bn	₦13.6bn	29%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	5,583	1,601	₦624m	₦624m	21%	5.1 yr
250 1000m2	1,036	563	₦9.58bn	₦8.99bn	63%	1.6 yr
Over 1000m2	22	15	₦1.42bn	₦1.27bn	65%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	9,496	5,388	₦13.8bn	₦13.3bn	65%	1.6 yr
Rural	9,067	1,939	₦4.6bn	₦4.6bn	27%	4.1 yr
Dense Urban	8,277	1,810	₦5.46bn	₦5.46bn	29%	3.9 yr
Unclassified	6,890	1,013	₦5.66bn	₦5.16bn	27%	3.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	13,579	4,053	₦5.3bn	₦5.29bn	29%	3.9 yr
Shed	10,094	2,635	₦294m	₦294m	11%	9.1 yr
Residential	6,939	2,389	₦19.9bn	₦19.2bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	1,935	0	₦41.9m	₦41.9m	21%	5.1 yr
Institutional	312	284	₦1.86bn	₦1.71bn	61%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	131	123	₦122m	₦122m	71%	1.4 yr
Educational Facility	125	115	₦340m	₦340m	91%	1.1 yr
Place Of Worship	125	117	₦60.7m	₦60.7m	69%	1.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	112	112	₦47.5m	₦47.5m	71%	1.4 yr
School	106	97	₦224m	₦224m	91%	1.1 yr
Commercial	104	104	₦571m	₦571m	73%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	52	46	₦537m	₦535m	59%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	33,723	10,150	₦29.5bn	₦28.6bn
Farmland	7	0	₦5.07m	₦5.07m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	33,275	9,729	₦27bn	₦26.2bn	29%	3.9 yr
Enterprise	337	305	₦1.92bn	₦1.77bn	85%	1.1 yr
SME High	118	116	₦566m	₦566m	73%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	13,251	4,767	₦24.4bn	₦23.5bn
0.0	10,100	2,639	₦295m	₦295m
2.0	6,901	2,194	₦4.09bn	₦4.08bn
4.0	1,828	14	₦222m	₦222m
1.0	1,648	534	₦378m	₦376m
5.0	2	2	₦108m	₦108m