Nigeria rooftop solar data

Rooftop solar in Sokoto State: buildings, spend and payback

2,443,013 buildings in Sokoto State carry a viable rooftop. Together they spend ₦285bn a year on grid power and generator fuel, and 8% of them run a generator.

Viable buildings

2,443,013

Usable roof area

72 km²

16 GWp of roof capacity

Current energy spend

₦285bn/yr

220 GWh/yr from generators

Median payback

13.4 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Sokoto

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦285bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦276bn

Lifetime cash saved₦15.2tn

NPV₦2.22tn

Median IRR9%

Median payback13.4 yr

Unlocked energy321 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity1.68 GWp

Capex₦1.79tn

Year-one energy value₦1.79tn

Lifetime energy value₦84.8tn

NPV₦14.5tn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Sokoto State's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 1.68 GWp
Capital cost: ₦1.79tn
Year 1 savings: ₦1.79tn/yr
NPV: ₦14.5tn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Sokoto State pays back quickly

Of the 2,415,311 buildings in Sokoto State with a modelled payback, 27.8% pay back inside five years and 7.4% inside three.

Payback under 5 years

27.8%

Payback under 3 years

7.4%

IRR above 20%

29.7%

Under 3 years · 7%3 – 5 years · 20%5 – 7 years · 9%7 – 10 years · 11%Over 10 years · 53%

Coverage: 99% of buildings in Sokoto State produced a payback figure. Buildings with no viable scenario are excluded rather than counted as zero.

How much of Sokoto State's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Sokoto State consume 591 GWh/yr but want 912 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Met today · 65%Suppressed · 35%

Energy wanted

912 GWh/yr

Energy consumed

591 GWh/yr

Unmet demand

321 GWh/yr

Modelled latent demand, not metered consumption. It is the load buildings would run given affordable, available supply.

How many rooftops in Sokoto State actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 2,415,311 buildings with a modelled result out of 2,443,013 in Sokoto State. 888,860 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years178,850 (7%)

Under 5 years671,675 (28%)

Under 7 years891,463 (37%)

Under 10 years1,145,436 (47%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%1,066,244 (44%)

Above 15%888,860 (36%)

Above 20%724,505 (30%)

Above 25%579,037 (24%)

Electricity billing bands in Sokoto State

Loading band economics…

What a delivered unit costs, by DisCo

Grid tariff plus the generator running that fills the gap, blended across every building the DisCo serves. Ranked most expensive first — the higher the all-in rate, the stronger the case for solar.

Loading the league table…

Ikeja and Eko are reported together as Lagos. Rates are modelled blends of billed grid energy and generator running, not published tariffs.

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Sokoto State.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Where the opportunity sits

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	919,048	42,321	₦62.8bn	₦59.3bn	7%	15.1 yr
E	754,042	29,806	₦44.4bn	₦42.7bn	7%	15.1 yr
C	388,042	48,359	₦87.9bn	₦85.1bn	15%	6.6 yr
B	259,044	47,704	₦57.9bn	₦56.9bn	23%	4.6 yr
A	122,837	18,450	₦32.5bn	₦32.1bn	21%	5.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	2,401,914	163,921	₦201bn	₦194bn	9%	13.6 yr
Commercial Retail	17,679	8,763	₦1.72bn	₦1.72bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	15,684	8,101	₦41bn	₦40.9bn	39%	2.6 yr
Anchor	5,619	4,248	₦40.4bn	₦38bn	63%	1.6 yr
Worship	1,821	1,474	₦560m	₦560m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	172	88	₦469m	₦469m	43%	2.4 yr
Hospitality	71	26	₦590m	₦560m	37%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	24	11	₦38.8m	₦38.8m	39%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	23	6	₦170m	₦170m	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	5	2	₦701k	₦701k	37%	2.9 yr
Automotive	1	0	₦162k	₦162k	31%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	1,448,367	73,267	₦9.22bn	₦9.12bn	5%	16.4 yr
30 50m2	442,448	30,892	₦9.84bn	₦9.72bn	11%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	382,152	40,269	₦42.1bn	₦41.4bn	29%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	142,547	31,900	₦81.9bn	₦78.7bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	26,760	9,886	₦98bn	₦95.2bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	739	426	₦44.4bn	₦42bn	45%	2.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	819,065	52,252	₦79.5bn	₦75.9bn	7%	14.4 yr
Unclassified	490,848	13,672	₦48.5bn	₦46.1bn	5%	16.1 yr
Rural	469,814	14,303	₦21.4bn	₦20.9bn	7%	15.1 yr
Urban Centre	339,410	61,446	₦78.5bn	₦77.2bn	23%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	323,876	44,967	₦57.6bn	₦56.1bn	17%	6.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	1,505,822	59,578	₦7.02bn	₦7.02bn	5%	15.9 yr
Residential Small	385,596	40,670	₦45.8bn	₦45bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential Informal	254,714	34,647	₦25.4bn	₦25.3bn	23%	4.4 yr
Residential	218,089	25,376	₦120bn	₦114bn	17%	5.9 yr
Residential Formal	36,567	3,173	₦1.82bn	₦1.82bn	17%	5.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	17,679	8,761	₦1.72bn	₦1.72bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	7,292	3,199	₦24.1bn	₦24bn	39%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	4,249	1,886	₦11.1bn	₦11.1bn	39%	2.9 yr
Institutional	3,506	2,706	₦26.6bn	₦26.5bn	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	2,053	1,579	₦2.07bn	₦2.07bn	83%	1.4 yr
School	1,625	1,208	₦1.01bn	₦1.01bn	79%	1.4 yr
Apartment	871	363	₦158m	₦158m	31%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	2,440,480	186,216	₦281bn	₦272bn
Farmland	1,762	190	₦927m	₦927m
Industrial	642	221	₦2.95bn	₦2.95bn
Retail	79	0	₦443k	₦443k
Commercial	38	5	₦37m	₦37m
Farmyard	12	8	₦106m	₦106m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	2,425,714	177,249	₦209bn	₦202bn	9%	13.4 yr
SME High	11,603	5,105	₦35.6bn	₦35.5bn	39%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	5,696	4,286	₦40.7bn	₦38.3bn	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	1,488,922	57,842	₦6.82bn	₦6.82bn
2.0	377,536	39,142	₦39.7bn	₦38.3bn
3.0	257,978	47,187	₦165bn	₦158bn
1.0	198,307	21,603	₦10.8bn	₦10.6bn
4.0	113,809	19,043	₦35.6bn	₦35.5bn
5.0	5,098	1,299	₦11.6bn	₦11.6bn
6.0	1,363	524	₦15.8bn	₦15.7bn