Sokoto State

Rooftop solar in Dange Shuni, Sokoto: what the roofs are worth

Dange Shuni has 167,814 buildings with a viable rooftop and 987 MWp of roof capacity. 4% run a generator, and together they spend ₦16.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

167,814

Usable roof area

4.42 km²

987 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦16.1bn/yr

11.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

15.1 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Dange Shuni

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦16.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦14.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦840bn

NPV₦118bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback15.1 yr

Unlocked energy19.8 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity121 MWp

Capex₦130bn

Year-one energy value₦132bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.28tn

NPV₦1.08tn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Dange Shuni's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 121 MWp
Capital cost: ₦130bn
Year 1 savings: ₦132bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.08tn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Dange Shuni pays back quickly

Of the 165,160 buildings in Dange Shuni with a modelled payback, 24.4% pay back inside five years and 4.3% inside three.

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How much of Dange Shuni's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Dange Shuni consume 36 GWh/yr but want 55.9 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Dange Shuni

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Dange Shuni actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 165,160 buildings with a modelled result out of 167,814 in Dange Shuni. 50,948 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years7,030 (4%)

Under 5 years40,248 (24%)

Under 7 years51,111 (31%)

Under 10 years64,496 (39%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%60,374 (36%)

Above 15%50,948 (30%)

Above 20%42,567 (25%)

Above 25%36,304 (22%)

CO₂ avoided

32.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.96 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

19.8 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

551k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Dange Shuni.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Dange Shuni

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	61,813	1,063	₦2.32bn	₦2.05bn	5%	16.6 yr
E	48,473	882	₦1.74bn	₦1.74bn	5%	16.6 yr
C	36,553	1,595	₦1.97bn	₦1.95bn	11%	8.6 yr
B	14,636	2,181	₦9.24bn	₦8.36bn	27%	3.9 yr
A	6,339	632	₦788m	₦788m	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	165,096	5,169	₦12.1bn	₦11.8bn	7%	15.1 yr
Commercial Retail	1,208	561	₦84.5m	₦84.5m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	1,160	391	₦1.39bn	₦1.39bn	39%	2.9 yr
Anchor	217	145	₦2.46bn	₦1.6bn	57%	1.9 yr
Worship	98	65	₦17.3m	₦17.3m	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	27	18	₦11.1m	₦11.1m	65%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	6	2	₦5.3m	₦5.3m	37%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	2	2	₦3.43m	₦3.43m	55%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	109,980	2,671	₦437m	₦435m	5%	17.1 yr
30 50m2	24,020	843	₦437m	₦437m	9%	9.6 yr
50 100m2	23,143	1,102	₦2.45bn	₦2.38bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	9,093	1,250	₦4.46bn	₦4.23bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	1,542	468	₦5.1bn	₦5.1bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	36	19	₦3.17bn	₦2.3bn	39%	2.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	102,150	1,816	₦3.28bn	₦3.22bn	5%	16.1 yr
Dense Urban	26,638	1,663	₦1.91bn	₦1.91bn	11%	9.1 yr
Urban Centre	19,322	2,383	₦8.92bn	₦8.05bn	27%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	14,327	480	₦1.87bn	₦1.64bn	5%	17.9 yr
Rural	5,377	11	₦75.2m	₦75.2m	5%	18.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	115,219	2,090	₦366m	₦366m	5%	16.9 yr
Residential Small	23,824	1,238	₦2.79bn	₦2.73bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	13,155	1,217	₦8.15bn	₦7.92bn	23%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	10,054	134	₦271m	₦267m	19%	5.4 yr
Residential Formal	2,483	352	₦408m	₦408m	31%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,208	561	₦84.5m	₦84.5m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	578	240	₦878m	₦878m	39%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	431	64	₦408m	₦408m	37%	2.9 yr
Apartment	294	115	₦73.9m	₦73.9m	31%	3.4 yr
Institutional	147	99	₦226m	₦226m	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	88	59	₦46.6m	₦46.6m	81%	1.4 yr
Duplex	67	23	₦14.5m	₦14.5m	31%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	167,814	6,353	₦16.1bn	₦14.9bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	166,579	5,898	₦12.3bn	₦12bn	7%	15.1 yr
SME High	1,014	308	₦1.29bn	₦1.29bn	39%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	221	147	₦2.46bn	₦1.6bn	57%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	115,176	2,122	₦367m	₦367m
2.0	21,314	982	₦2.01bn	₦1.81bn
3.0	14,583	1,787	₦11.2bn	₦10.2bn
1.0	9,742	834	₦585m	₦582m
4.0	6,430	531	₦982m	₦980m
5.0	465	76	₦446m	₦446m
6.0	104	21	₦465m	₦465m