Sokoto State

Rooftop solar in Illela, Sokoto: what the roofs are worth

Illela has 191,962 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.03 GWp of roof capacity. 3% run a generator, and together they spend ₦8.09bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

191,962

Usable roof area

4.67 km²

1.03 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦8.09bn/yr

6.12 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

13.6 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Illela

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦8.09bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦8.03bn

Lifetime cash saved₦448bn

NPV₦60.9bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback13.6 yr

Unlocked energy11.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity72.2 MWp

Capex₦80.7bn

Year-one energy value₦83.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.98tn

NPV₦684bn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Illela's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 72.2 MWp
Capital cost: ₦80.7bn
Year 1 savings: ₦83.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦684bn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Illela pays back quickly

Of the 190,901 buildings in Illela with a modelled payback, 17.1% pay back inside five years and 3.0% inside three.

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How much of Illela's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Illela consume 17.5 GWh/yr but want 28.7 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Illela

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Illela actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 190,901 buildings with a modelled result out of 191,962 in Illela. 54,587 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years5,691 (3%)

Under 5 years32,637 (17%)

Under 7 years54,983 (29%)

Under 10 years87,636 (46%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%80,247 (42%)

Above 15%54,587 (28%)

Above 20%36,545 (19%)

Above 25%27,251 (14%)

CO₂ avoided

17.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.27 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

11.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

324k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Illela.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Illela

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	61,077	748	₦2.23bn	₦2.18bn	5%	15.9 yr
E	47,587	1,063	₦1.75bn	₦1.73bn	5%	16.4 yr
C	46,330	2,530	₦3.81bn	₦3.81bn	13%	7.6 yr
A	22,649	222	₦143m	₦143m	13%	8.1 yr
B	14,319	1,063	₦161m	₦161m	17%	6.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	191,359	5,280	₦6.07bn	₦6.01bn	9%	13.6 yr
Anchor	302	205	₦1.76bn	₦1.76bn	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	182	105	₦250m	₦250m	53%	2.1 yr
Commercial Retail	80	14	₦5.36m	₦5.36m	37%	2.9 yr
Worship	30	21	₦1.59m	₦1.59m	45%	2.4 yr
Hospitality	3	0	₦757k	₦757k	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial	3	1	₦641k	₦641k	41%	2.6 yr
Mall Retail	3	0	₦330k	₦330k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	124,287	2,374	₦455m	₦455m	5%	16.1 yr
30 50m2	33,993	1,087	₦395m	₦395m	11%	8.9 yr
50 100m2	24,732	1,120	₦1.36bn	₦1.34bn	27%	4.1 yr
100 250m2	7,794	771	₦1.9bn	₦1.85bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	1,096	247	₦2.1bn	₦2.1bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	60	27	₦1.89bn	₦1.89bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	70,282	2,013	₦2.06bn	₦2.04bn	11%	9.1 yr
Rural	51,612	668	₦1.48bn	₦1.45bn	5%	15.9 yr
Urban	44,683	1,711	₦2.12bn	₦2.1bn	7%	15.6 yr
Urban Centre	22,264	1,234	₦2.41bn	₦2.41bn	17%	5.9 yr
Dense Urban	3,121	0	₦24m	₦24m	13%	7.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	134,902	2,634	₦478m	₦478m	7%	15.6 yr
Residential Small	23,381	1,356	₦1.52bn	₦1.5bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential	15,420	1,169	₦3.78bn	₦3.73bn	15%	6.6 yr
Residential Informal	14,563	121	₦273m	₦273m	17%	6.4 yr
Residential Formal	3,092	0	₦18.5m	₦18.5m	13%	7.6 yr
Institutional	165	109	₦1.45bn	₦1.45bn	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	98	68	₦68.7m	₦68.7m	81%	1.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	80	14	₦5.36m	₦5.36m	37%	2.9 yr
School	80	54	₦27.1m	₦27.1m	75%	1.4 yr
Clinic	49	32	₦155m	₦155m	51%	2.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	48	31	₦63.8m	₦63.8m	53%	2.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	28	5	₦67.6m	₦67.6m	37%	2.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	191,933	5,614	₦7.99bn	₦7.92bn
Farmland	18	4	₦1.54m	₦1.54m
Farmyard	11	8	₦106m	₦106m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	191,617	5,409	₦6.18bn	₦6.12bn	9%	13.6 yr
Enterprise	305	206	₦1.76bn	₦1.76bn	57%	1.9 yr
SME High	40	11	₦148m	₦148m	37%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	134,895	2,646	₦478m	₦478m
2.0	25,827	1,222	₦1.24bn	₦1.24bn
3.0	15,579	1,280	₦5.66bn	₦5.61bn
1.0	11,493	426	₦395m	₦380m
4.0	4,164	48	₦203m	₦203m
5.0	4	4	₦115m	₦115m