Sokoto State

Rooftop solar in Wurno, Sokoto: what the roofs are worth

Wurno has 92,703 buildings with a viable rooftop and 588 MWp of roof capacity. 6% run a generator, and together they spend ₦9.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

92,703

Usable roof area

2.65 km²

588 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦9.5bn/yr

7.18 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.6 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Wurno

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦9.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦9.16bn

Lifetime cash saved₦491bn

NPV₦74.2bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback9.6 yr

Unlocked energy9.57 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity61.1 MWp

Capex₦66.9bn

Year-one energy value₦74.4bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.53tn

NPV₦612bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Wurno's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 61.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦66.9bn
Year 1 savings: ₦74.4bn/yr
NPV: ₦612bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Wurno pays back quickly

Of the 91,098 buildings in Wurno with a modelled payback, 26.5% pay back inside five years and 5.6% inside three.

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How much of Wurno's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Wurno consume 16.5 GWh/yr but want 26 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Wurno

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Wurno actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 91,098 buildings with a modelled result out of 92,703 in Wurno. 34,851 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years5,100 (6%)

Under 5 years24,170 (27%)

Under 7 years35,016 (38%)

Under 10 years47,581 (52%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%44,236 (48%)

Above 15%34,851 (38%)

Above 20%26,489 (29%)

Above 25%20,268 (22%)

CO₂ avoided

18.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.51 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

9.57 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

306k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Wurno.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Wurno

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	36,068	1,566	₦4bn	₦3.76bn	7%	14.1 yr
C	27,816	1,906	₦3.87bn	₦3.84bn	17%	6.4 yr
E	24,735	1,656	₦1.6bn	₦1.53bn	7%	14.6 yr
B	4,084	0	₦32.1m	₦32.1m	13%	7.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	91,948	4,524	₦8.68bn	₦8.34bn	9%	9.6 yr
Anchor	228	161	₦502m	₦502m	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	203	169	₦47.5m	₦47.5m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	159	153	₦10.6m	₦10.6m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	154	115	₦255m	₦255m	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	11	6	₦3.69m	₦3.69m	65%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	52,123	2,273	₦320m	₦278m	5%	16.1 yr
30 50m2	18,405	883	₦319m	₦310m	11%	8.9 yr
50 100m2	16,178	1,025	₦1.68bn	₦1.66bn	27%	3.9 yr
100 250m2	5,293	741	₦3.77bn	₦3.58bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	699	203	₦3.01bn	₦2.94bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	5	3	₦400m	₦400m	61%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	53,605	3,246	₦5.85bn	₦5.52bn	9%	13.4 yr
Dense Urban	21,670	1,347	₦1.71bn	₦1.71bn	15%	6.6 yr
Unclassified	9,031	468	₦1.63bn	₦1.62bn	7%	14.9 yr
Rural	8,397	67	₦306m	₦303m	7%	14.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	50,959	2,331	₦244m	₦244m	7%	15.4 yr
Residential Small	18,244	1,343	₦1.98bn	₦1.94bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential	12,702	734	₦6.31bn	₦6bn	15%	6.9 yr
Residential Informal	10,043	116	₦147m	₦147m	17%	6.1 yr
Institutional	195	149	₦282m	₦282m	55%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	159	153	₦10.6m	₦10.6m	63%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	87	61	₦64.2m	₦64.2m	81%	1.4 yr
School	80	54	₦44.8m	₦44.8m	75%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	70	58	₦7.11m	₦7.11m	63%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	65	54	₦5.45m	₦5.45m	59%	1.9 yr
Healthcare Facility	30	23	₦75m	₦75m	53%	1.9 yr
Clinic	27	21	₦286m	₦286m	53%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	92,703	5,128	₦9.5bn	₦9.16bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	92,447	4,944	₦8.97bn	₦8.64bn	9%	9.6 yr
Enterprise	238	166	₦506m	₦506m	63%	1.6 yr
SME High	18	18	₦16.2m	₦16.2m	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	50,994	2,360	₦245m	₦245m
2.0	19,685	905	₦1.6bn	₦1.59bn
3.0	12,352	1,275	₦7.12bn	₦6.84bn
1.0	8,451	508	₦414m	₦372m
4.0	1,221	80	₦111m	₦111m