Sokoto State

Rooftop solar in Sabon Birni, Sokoto: what the roofs are worth

Sabon Birni has 127,527 buildings with a viable rooftop and 670 MWp of roof capacity. 6% run a generator, and together they spend ₦11.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

127,527

Usable roof area

3.05 km²

670 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦11.8bn/yr

8.97 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.1 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Sabon Birni

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦11.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦11.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦631bn

NPV₦93.7bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.1 yr

Unlocked energy11.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity78.1 MWp

Capex₦85.9bn

Year-one energy value₦97.2bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.62tn

NPV₦803bn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Sabon Birni's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 78.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦85.9bn
Year 1 savings: ₦97.2bn/yr
NPV: ₦803bn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Sabon Birni pays back quickly

Of the 126,917 buildings in Sabon Birni with a modelled payback, 25.8% pay back inside five years and 6.5% inside three.

Create a free account

How much of Sabon Birni's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Sabon Birni consume 20.3 GWh/yr but want 31.5 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Create a free account

Electricity billing bands in Sabon Birni

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Sabon Birni actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 126,917 buildings with a modelled result out of 127,527 in Sabon Birni. 41,713 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years8,205 (6%)

Under 5 years32,754 (26%)

Under 7 years41,813 (33%)

Under 10 years53,369 (42%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%48,997 (38%)

Above 15%41,713 (33%)

Above 20%34,941 (27%)

Above 25%28,741 (23%)

CO₂ avoided

23.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.8 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

11.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

377k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Sabon Birni.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Sabon Birni

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	63,608	2,858	₦3.47bn	₦3.36bn	7%	14.4 yr
E	49,240	1,983	₦1.88bn	₦1.88bn	7%	14.9 yr
C	14,679	3,356	₦6.45bn	₦6.45bn	23%	4.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	126,384	7,197	₦10.8bn	₦10.7bn	7%	14.1 yr
Commercial Retail	448	411	₦40m	₦40m	65%	1.6 yr
Anchor	282	244	₦631m	₦630m	77%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	259	217	₦287m	₦287m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	151	126	₦29.7m	₦29.7m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	2	2	₦697k	₦697k	43%	1.4 yr
Mall Retail	1	0	₦17.2k	₦17.2k	31%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	80,683	3,267	₦421m	₦420m	5%	16.4 yr
30 50m2	23,506	1,607	₦567m	₦564m	9%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	17,545	1,890	₦2.3bn	₦2.3bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	5,102	1,127	₦4.05bn	₦4.01bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	673	297	₦3.83bn	₦3.78bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	18	9	₦641m	₦618m	35%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	58,941	3,649	₦8.92bn	₦8.85bn	7%	14.4 yr
Rural	36,188	1,076	₦827m	₦781m	7%	14.9 yr
Urban	18,193	1,059	₦708m	₦708m	7%	14.4 yr
Dense Urban	14,205	2,413	₦1.35bn	₦1.35bn	19%	5.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	81,501	2,280	₦338m	₦338m	5%	16.1 yr
Residential	19,819	1,873	₦7.52bn	₦7.41bn	15%	6.6 yr
Residential Small	19,525	1,756	₦2.49bn	₦2.49bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Informal	5,539	1,288	₦474m	₦474m	31%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	448	411	₦40m	₦40m	65%	1.6 yr
Institutional	239	197	₦552m	₦552m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	106	92	₦85.5m	₦85.5m	83%	1.1 yr
School	106	90	₦49m	₦49m	85%	1.1 yr
Place Of Worship	67	59	₦5.39m	₦5.39m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	53	47	₦28.3m	₦28.3m	69%	1.6 yr
Clinic	36	33	₦58.1m	₦57.9m	57%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	34	27	₦5.56m	₦5.56m	63%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	126,755	8,011	₦10.9bn	₦10.8bn
Farmland	772	186	₦909m	₦909m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	127,172	7,892	₦11.1bn	₦11bn	7%	14.1 yr
Enterprise	284	246	₦632m	₦631m	77%	1.4 yr
SME High	71	59	₦39.3m	₦39.3m	69%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	81,529	2,305	₦340m	₦340m
2.0	22,847	2,625	₦2.95bn	₦2.91bn
1.0	13,820	1,421	₦778m	₦777m
3.0	8,752	1,724	₦7.47bn	₦7.4bn
4.0	579	122	₦269m	₦269m