Sokoto State

Rooftop solar in Goronyo, Sokoto: what the roofs are worth

Goronyo has 109,274 buildings with a viable rooftop and 569 MWp of roof capacity. 7% run a generator, and together they spend ₦12.6bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

109,274

Usable roof area

2.58 km²

569 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦12.6bn/yr

9.84 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.4 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Goronyo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦12.6bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦12.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦656bn

NPV₦101bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.4 yr

Unlocked energy12.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity75.5 MWp

Capex₦82.6bn

Year-one energy value₦94.6bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.48tn

NPV₦781bn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Goronyo's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 75.5 MWp
Capital cost: ₦82.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦94.6bn/yr
NPV: ₦781bn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Goronyo pays back quickly

Of the 108,284 buildings in Goronyo with a modelled payback, 25.3% pay back inside five years and 6.8% inside three.

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How much of Goronyo's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Goronyo consume 20.1 GWh/yr but want 32.3 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Goronyo

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Goronyo actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 108,284 buildings with a modelled result out of 109,274 in Goronyo. 32,834 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years7,353 (7%)

Under 5 years27,437 (25%)

Under 7 years32,942 (30%)

Under 10 years44,845 (41%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%40,905 (37%)

Above 15%32,834 (30%)

Above 20%28,673 (26%)

Above 25%24,732 (23%)

CO₂ avoided

24.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

6.37 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

12.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

386k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Goronyo.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Goronyo

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	47,771	3,222	₦5.47bn	₦5.2bn	7%	15.1 yr
E	43,187	1,107	₦3.99bn	₦3.96bn	7%	15.1 yr
C	18,316	2,980	₦3.17bn	₦3.14bn	17%	6.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	108,012	6,214	₦11.8bn	₦11.5bn	7%	14.4 yr
Commercial Retail	546	529	₦47.7m	₦47.7m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	297	246	₦241m	₦241m	63%	1.6 yr
Anchor	290	208	₦510m	₦510m	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	127	110	₦33.4m	₦33.4m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	2	2	₦4.92m	₦4.92m	51%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	69,259	2,879	₦373m	₦373m	5%	16.6 yr
30 50m2	20,036	1,316	₦462m	₦462m	9%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	15,413	1,687	₦2.96bn	₦2.96bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	4,033	1,178	₦4.73bn	₦4.41bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	527	245	₦3.9bn	₦3.9bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	6	4	₦205m	₦205m	61%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Rural	49,561	2,057	₦4.34bn	₦4.33bn	7%	14.9 yr
Unclassified	21,518	347	₦2.07bn	₦1.8bn	5%	17.4 yr
Dense Urban	21,296	2,831	₦3.13bn	₦3.1bn	15%	6.9 yr
Urban	16,899	2,074	₦3.08bn	₦3.08bn	9%	13.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	73,145	2,563	₦305m	₦305m	5%	16.1 yr
Residential Small	18,779	2,124	₦3.83bn	₦3.8bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	10,714	1,212	₦7.41bn	₦7.13bn	17%	6.1 yr
Residential Informal	5,374	315	₦240m	₦240m	23%	4.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	546	529	₦47.7m	₦47.7m	63%	1.6 yr
Institutional	191	143	₦249m	₦249m	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	124	123	₦100m	₦100m	65%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	120	83	₦90.8m	₦90.8m	81%	1.4 yr
School	91	58	₦32.5m	₦32.5m	75%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	43	38	₦6.6m	₦6.6m	63%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	41	35	₦4.05m	₦4.05m	61%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	40	33	₦93.2m	₦93.2m	57%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	108,545	7,309	₦12.6bn	₦12.3bn
Farmland	729	0	₦12.7m	₦12.7m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	108,840	6,960	₦12bn	₦11.7bn	7%	14.4 yr
Enterprise	292	210	₦515m	₦515m	61%	1.6 yr
SME High	142	139	₦129m	₦129m	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	73,172	2,588	₦307m	₦307m
2.0	18,044	1,615	₦2.9bn	₦2.85bn
1.0	9,019	1,003	₦495m	₦495m
3.0	8,556	1,975	₦8.72bn	₦8.44bn
4.0	481	127	₦198m	₦198m
5.0	2	1	₦8.91m	₦8.91m