Sokoto State

Rooftop solar in Gada, Sokoto: what the roofs are worth

Gada has 163,660 buildings with a viable rooftop and 843 MWp of roof capacity. 2% run a generator, and together they spend ₦4.11bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

163,660

Usable roof area

3.84 km²

843 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦4.11bn/yr

2.42 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.9 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Gada

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦4.11bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦4.06bn

Lifetime cash saved₦239bn

NPV₦28.7bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.9 yr

Unlocked energy7.43 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity70.3 MWp

Capex₦78.7bn

Year-one energy value₦89.8bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.28tn

NPV₦744bn

Median IRR109%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Gada's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 70.3 MWp
Capital cost: ₦78.7bn
Year 1 savings: ₦89.8bn/yr
NPV: ₦744bn
Median IRR: 109%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Gada pays back quickly

Of the 162,515 buildings in Gada with a modelled payback, 19.0% pay back inside five years and 1.8% inside three.

Create a free account

How much of Gada's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Gada consume 10.6 GWh/yr but want 18 GWh/yr. The 41% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Create a free account

Electricity billing bands in Gada

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Gada actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 162,515 buildings with a modelled result out of 163,660 in Gada. 40,005 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years2,912 (2%)

Under 5 years30,858 (19%)

Under 7 years40,098 (25%)

Under 10 years55,126 (34%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%48,212 (29%)

Above 15%40,005 (24%)

Above 20%33,689 (21%)

Above 25%24,892 (15%)

CO₂ avoided

10.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

1.42 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

7.43 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

353k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Gada.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Gada

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	82,993	877	₦2.02bn	₦2bn	7%	14.9 yr
E	65,096	269	₦1.06bn	₦1.03bn	7%	15.1 yr
C	15,571	1,788	₦1.03bn	₦1.03bn	9%	9.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	163,119	2,502	₦3.61bn	₦3.56bn	7%	14.9 yr
Anchor	274	225	₦317m	₦317m	75%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	171	138	₦164m	₦164m	57%	1.9 yr
Worship	82	63	₦14.6m	₦14.6m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	12	5	₦841k	₦841k	29%	3.1 yr
Industrial	2	1	₦783k	₦783k	41%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	100,523	1,000	₦246m	₦246m	5%	16.9 yr
30 50m2	33,188	601	₦280m	₦280m	9%	9.9 yr
50 100m2	24,390	714	₦1.13bn	₦1.13bn	27%	3.9 yr
100 250m2	5,036	497	₦1.24bn	₦1.19bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	506	114	₦945m	₦945m	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	17	8	₦273m	₦273m	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Rural	59,528	181	₦772m	₦754m	7%	15.6 yr
Urban	47,484	503	₦1.14bn	₦1.14bn	7%	14.6 yr
Unclassified	38,807	454	₦1.17bn	₦1.14bn	7%	15.4 yr
Dense Urban	17,841	1,796	₦1.03bn	₦1.03bn	13%	7.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	111,927	1,205	₦275m	₦275m	5%	16.1 yr
Residential Small	33,632	703	₦1.33bn	₦1.32bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential	15,016	444	₦1.94bn	₦1.9bn	13%	7.4 yr
Residential Informal	2,544	150	₦68.2m	₦68.2m	19%	5.6 yr
Institutional	186	153	₦311m	₦311m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	111	88	₦64.3m	₦64.3m	83%	1.4 yr
School	91	74	₦15m	₦15m	81%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	33	29	₦45m	₦45m	57%	1.9 yr
Clinic	33	28	₦37.7m	₦37.7m	57%	1.9 yr
Place Of Worship	29	22	₦4m	₦4m	61%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	24	18	₦3.45m	₦3.45m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial	16	11	₦10.6m	₦10.6m	69%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	163,660	2,934	₦4.11bn	₦4.06bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	163,374	2,702	₦3.78bn	₦3.73bn	7%	14.9 yr
Enterprise	276	226	₦318m	₦318m	75%	1.4 yr
SME High	10	6	₦7.96m	₦7.96m	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	111,939	1,213	₦275m	₦275m
2.0	25,880	709	₦1.13bn	₦1.09bn
1.0	12,748	293	₦340m	₦340m
3.0	12,727	670	₦2.32bn	₦2.3bn
4.0	366	49	₦49.2m	₦49.2m