Sokoto State

Rooftop solar in Gwadabawa, Sokoto: what the roofs are worth

Gwadabawa has 142,665 buildings with a viable rooftop and 723 MWp of roof capacity. 5% run a generator, and together they spend ₦8.79bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

142,665

Usable roof area

3.29 km²

723 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦8.79bn/yr

6.78 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.6 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Gwadabawa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦8.79bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦8.66bn

Lifetime cash saved₦470bn

NPV₦67.9bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.6 yr

Unlocked energy8.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity68.7 MWp

Capex₦76.1bn

Year-one energy value₦85bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.05tn

NPV₦702bn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Gwadabawa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 68.7 MWp
Capital cost: ₦76.1bn
Year 1 savings: ₦85bn/yr
NPV: ₦702bn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Gwadabawa pays back quickly

Of the 141,620 buildings in Gwadabawa with a modelled payback, 20.1% pay back inside five years and 4.8% inside three.

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How much of Gwadabawa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Gwadabawa consume 15.6 GWh/yr but want 24.5 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Gwadabawa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Gwadabawa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 141,620 buildings with a modelled result out of 142,665 in Gwadabawa. 36,539 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years6,745 (5%)

Under 5 years28,510 (20%)

Under 7 years36,622 (26%)

Under 10 years52,404 (37%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%45,867 (32%)

Above 15%36,539 (26%)

Above 20%30,521 (21%)

Above 25%24,384 (17%)

CO₂ avoided

17.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.18 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

8.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

303k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Gwadabawa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Gwadabawa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	64,347	1,663	₦1.67bn	₦1.66bn	7%	14.6 yr
D	60,723	2,697	₦3.52bn	₦3.41bn	7%	15.1 yr
C	17,595	2,344	₦3.6bn	₦3.59bn	13%	7.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	141,341	5,478	₦7.73bn	₦7.61bn	7%	14.6 yr
Commercial Retail	625	620	₦44m	₦44m	61%	1.6 yr
Anchor	298	252	₦709m	₦708m	75%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	249	220	₦247m	₦247m	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	149	131	₦50.7m	₦50.7m	59%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	2	2	₦2.78m	₦2.78m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	1	1	₦158k	₦158k	69%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	90,733	3,145	₦428m	₦428m	5%	16.4 yr
30 50m2	27,211	1,108	₦406m	₦406m	9%	9.6 yr
50 100m2	19,366	1,301	₦1.7bn	₦1.69bn	29%	3.9 yr
100 250m2	4,818	902	₦3.27bn	₦3.14bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	526	241	₦2.49bn	₦2.49bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	11	7	₦508m	₦508m	85%	1.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	55,921	2,073	₦2.89bn	₦2.89bn	7%	14.6 yr
Dense Urban	38,145	2,987	₦3.78bn	₦3.76bn	9%	9.9 yr
Rural	33,399	1,151	₦850m	₦841m	7%	15.4 yr
Unclassified	15,200	493	₦1.27bn	₦1.17bn	5%	16.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	94,790	2,059	₦324m	₦324m	5%	15.9 yr
Residential Small	22,083	1,903	₦2.09bn	₦2.09bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	16,134	1,516	₦5.27bn	₦5.14bn	13%	7.1 yr
Residential Informal	4,860	0	₦36.3m	₦36.3m	13%	7.1 yr
Residential Formal	3,472	0	₦21.5m	₦21.5m	13%	7.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	625	620	₦44m	₦44m	61%	1.6 yr
Institutional	202	173	₦514m	₦514m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	114	92	₦103m	₦103m	83%	1.1 yr
Commercial	98	93	₦97.6m	₦97.6m	69%	1.6 yr
School	90	74	₦26.1m	₦26.1m	81%	1.4 yr
Place Of Worship	50	43	₦5.54m	₦5.54m	61%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	49	43	₦6.81m	₦6.81m	61%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	142,547	6,704	₦8.79bn	₦8.66bn
Farmland	118	0	₦1.29m	₦1.29m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	142,271	6,356	₦7.98bn	₦7.85bn	7%	14.6 yr
Enterprise	299	253	₦709m	₦708m	75%	1.4 yr
SME High	95	95	₦100m	₦100m	69%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	94,814	2,094	₦326m	₦326m
2.0	20,679	1,501	₦1.96bn	₦1.84bn
1.0	12,762	1,384	₦565m	₦564m
3.0	11,184	1,713	₦5.84bn	₦5.84bn
4.0	3,226	12	₦91.2m	₦91.2m