Sokoto State

Rooftop solar in Bodinga, Sokoto: what the roofs are worth

Bodinga has 124,266 buildings with a viable rooftop and 795 MWp of roof capacity. 9% run a generator, and together they spend ₦20.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

124,266

Usable roof area

3.58 km²

795 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦20.5bn/yr

19.3 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

13.1 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Bodinga

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦20.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦20bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.07tn

NPV₦161bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback13.1 yr

Unlocked energy17 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity99.5 MWp

Capex₦106bn

Year-one energy value₦108bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.15tn

NPV₦884bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Bodinga's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 99.5 MWp
Capital cost: ₦106bn
Year 1 savings: ₦108bn/yr
NPV: ₦884bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Bodinga pays back quickly

Of the 119,928 buildings in Bodinga with a modelled payback, 29.7% pay back inside five years and 10.6% inside three.

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How much of Bodinga's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Bodinga consume 38 GWh/yr but want 55 GWh/yr. The 31% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Bodinga

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Bodinga actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 119,928 buildings with a modelled result out of 124,266 in Bodinga. 46,076 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years12,760 (11%)

Under 5 years35,649 (30%)

Under 7 years46,209 (39%)

Under 10 years57,919 (48%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%54,153 (44%)

Above 15%46,076 (37%)

Above 20%38,008 (31%)

Above 25%31,985 (26%)

CO₂ avoided

36.7 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

8.83 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

17 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

377k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Bodinga.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Bodinga

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	46,761	4,489	₦3.24bn	₦3.23bn	7%	14.9 yr
E	36,986	1,650	₦1.97bn	₦1.77bn	7%	15.4 yr
C	23,115	3,178	₦11.5bn	₦11.3bn	17%	6.4 yr
B	17,404	2,071	₦3.78bn	₦3.76bn	17%	5.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	121,306	10,361	₦11.6bn	₦11.1bn	7%	13.4 yr
Commercial Retail	1,539	394	₦111m	₦111m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	1,040	363	₦2.12bn	₦2.12bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	257	178	₦6.68bn	₦6.6bn	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	109	84	₦38.2m	₦38.2m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	15	8	₦12.3m	₦12.3m	55%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	73,509	5,617	₦523m	₦523m	5%	16.4 yr
30 50m2	21,708	1,982	₦565m	₦565m	11%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	21,537	2,139	₦3.14bn	₦3.03bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	6,428	1,200	₦4.53bn	₦4.23bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	1,031	404	₦4.36bn	₦4.3bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	53	46	₦7.41bn	₦7.38bn	77%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	83,370	8,135	₦11bn	₦10.7bn	7%	14.4 yr
Dense Urban	28,834	2,804	₦4.35bn	₦4.25bn	17%	5.9 yr
Unclassified	9,753	389	₦5.05bn	₦4.98bn	5%	16.9 yr
Rural	2,309	60	₦128m	₦128m	5%	17.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	79,198	6,263	₦521m	₦521m	5%	15.9 yr
Residential Small	22,913	2,703	₦3.38bn	₦3.26bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	10,810	1,395	₦7.61bn	₦7.31bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Informal	4,773	0	₦36m	₦36m	13%	7.1 yr
Residential Formal	3,611	0	₦19.1m	₦19.1m	13%	7.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,539	394	₦111m	₦111m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	816	244	₦1.38bn	₦1.37bn	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	162	119	₦5.82bn	₦5.82bn	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	103	74	₦159m	₦159m	83%	1.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	67	18	₦176m	₦176m	37%	2.9 yr
School	65	43	₦54.6m	₦54.6m	77%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	37	23	₦286m	₦235m	53%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	124,233	11,388	₦20.5bn	₦20bn
Commercial	33	0	₦611k	₦611k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	123,122	10,948	₦12.3bn	₦11.9bn	9%	13.4 yr
SME High	882	261	₦1.55bn	₦1.54bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	262	179	₦6.69bn	₦6.6bn	59%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	79,224	6,309	₦523m	₦523m
2.0	19,649	2,021	₦2.82bn	₦2.79bn
3.0	11,998	1,872	₦14.8bn	₦14.5bn
1.0	9,422	1,085	₦980m	₦877m
4.0	3,450	38	₦270m	₦270m
5.0	484	54	₦746m	₦746m
6.0	39	9	₦349m	₦342m