Sokoto State

Rooftop solar in Tambuwal, Sokoto: what the roofs are worth

Tambuwal has 119,582 buildings with a viable rooftop and 840 MWp of roof capacity. 14% run a generator, and together they spend ₦21.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

119,582

Usable roof area

3.8 km²

840 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦21.2bn/yr

18.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.6 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Tambuwal

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦21.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦20.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.09tn

NPV₦171bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback9.6 yr

Unlocked energy17.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity93.9 MWp

Capex₦102bn

Year-one energy value₦111bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.26tn

NPV₦911bn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Tambuwal's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 93.9 MWp
Capital cost: ₦102bn
Year 1 savings: ₦111bn/yr
NPV: ₦911bn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Tambuwal pays back quickly

Of the 118,400 buildings in Tambuwal with a modelled payback, 34.1% pay back inside five years and 13.8% inside three.

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How much of Tambuwal's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Tambuwal consume 32.2 GWh/yr but want 49.6 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Tambuwal

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Tambuwal actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 118,400 buildings with a modelled result out of 119,582 in Tambuwal. 49,541 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years16,383 (14%)

Under 5 years40,346 (34%)

Under 7 years49,636 (42%)

Under 10 years63,149 (53%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%58,045 (49%)

Above 15%49,541 (41%)

Above 20%42,583 (36%)

Above 25%36,048 (30%)

CO₂ avoided

39.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

10.9 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

17.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

366k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Tambuwal.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Tambuwal

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	50,085	5,146	₦8.17bn	₦8.12bn	9%	13.4 yr
E	44,624	4,825	₦5.7bn	₦5.55bn	9%	12.9 yr
C	17,231	5,180	₦5.68bn	₦5.51bn	21%	5.1 yr
B	7,642	1,388	₦1.63bn	₦1.63bn	17%	5.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	118,750	15,849	₦17.7bn	₦17.5bn	9%	9.6 yr
Anchor	364	295	₦2.46bn	₦2.35bn	77%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	326	269	₦950m	₦950m	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	111	109	₦22.5m	₦22.5m	49%	2.1 yr
Industrial	16	9	₦33.7m	₦33.7m	67%	1.6 yr
Worship	15	8	₦4.81m	₦4.81m	55%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	61,917	6,425	₦675m	₦675m	7%	15.6 yr
30 50m2	25,333	2,879	₦844m	₦844m	11%	9.1 yr
50 100m2	23,947	4,157	₦4.11bn	₦3.99bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	7,252	2,486	₦6.41bn	₦6.34bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	1,103	572	₦6.98bn	₦6.92bn	39%	2.9 yr
Over 1000m2	30	20	₦2.16bn	₦2.06bn	65%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	55,746	8,335	₦10.8bn	₦10.6bn	9%	9.9 yr
Dense Urban	23,990	4,935	₦3.84bn	₦3.84bn	17%	5.9 yr
Rural	22,030	2,424	₦3.75bn	₦3.69bn	9%	9.9 yr
Unclassified	17,816	845	₦2.76bn	₦2.7bn	7%	15.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	63,615	6,444	₦579m	₦579m	7%	15.1 yr
Residential Small	27,115	5,953	₦5.01bn	₦4.89bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	13,619	3,191	₦11.8bn	₦11.7bn	21%	4.9 yr
Residential Formal	10,718	170	₦177m	₦177m	15%	6.9 yr
Residential Informal	3,634	85	₦120m	₦112m	15%	6.4 yr
Institutional	193	154	₦1.04bn	₦1.04bn	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	137	106	₦156m	₦156m	83%	1.4 yr
School	113	86	₦90.4m	₦90.4m	83%	1.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	111	109	₦22.5m	₦22.5m	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	65	63	₦401m	₦401m	53%	2.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	53	48	₦818m	₦713m	59%	1.9 yr
Clinic	50	46	₦570m	₦564m	57%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	119,582	16,539	₦21.2bn	₦20.8bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	119,104	16,139	₦18bn	₦17.8bn	9%	9.6 yr
Enterprise	370	296	₦2.46bn	₦2.35bn	77%	1.4 yr
SME High	108	104	₦684m	₦684m	53%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	63,596	6,449	₦580m	₦580m
2.0	22,248	3,782	₦4.07bn	₦3.9bn
3.0	14,292	4,698	₦14.6bn	₦14.5bn
4.0	10,259	397	₦862m	₦854m
1.0	9,170	1,198	₦792m	₦792m
5.0	15	13	₦199m	₦199m
6.0	2	2	₦46.7m	₦46.7m