Sokoto State

Rooftop solar in Kware, Sokoto: what the roofs are worth

Kware has 134,616 buildings with a viable rooftop and 811 MWp of roof capacity. 5% run a generator, and together they spend ₦16.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

134,616

Usable roof area

3.66 km²

811 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦16.1bn/yr

12.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.4 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kware

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦16.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦14.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦769bn

NPV₦115bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.4 yr

Unlocked energy14.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity82.2 MWp

Capex₦87.7bn

Year-one energy value₦88.5bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.2tn

NPV₦720bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Kware's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 82.2 MWp
Capital cost: ₦87.7bn
Year 1 savings: ₦88.5bn/yr
NPV: ₦720bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kware pays back quickly

Of the 133,389 buildings in Kware with a modelled payback, 23.1% pay back inside five years and 6.5% inside three.

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How much of Kware's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kware consume 29.2 GWh/yr but want 44.1 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kware

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kware actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 133,389 buildings with a modelled result out of 134,616 in Kware. 40,843 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years8,639 (6%)

Under 5 years30,773 (23%)

Under 7 years40,973 (31%)

Under 10 years53,493 (40%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%49,104 (36%)

Above 15%40,843 (30%)

Above 20%33,029 (25%)

Above 25%26,968 (20%)

CO₂ avoided

28.7 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

6.5 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

14.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

294k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kware.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kware

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	59,163	1,961	₦3.39bn	₦2.35bn	7%	15.4 yr
E	42,402	1,176	₦1.96bn	₦1.96bn	7%	15.4 yr
C	30,817	3,954	₦10.7bn	₦9.84bn	17%	6.1 yr
B	2,234	47	₦91.9m	₦91.9m	13%	7.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	130,711	5,704	₦12.5bn	₦10.6bn	7%	14.6 yr
Commercial Retail	2,277	748	₦152m	₦152m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	1,290	421	₦2.08bn	₦2.08bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	231	176	₦1.34bn	₦1.34bn	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	102	87	₦38.1m	₦38.1m	59%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	3	1	₦1.2m	₦1.2m	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial	2	1	₦2.36m	₦2.36m	39%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	80,201	2,837	₦384m	₦384m	5%	16.9 yr
30 50m2	25,567	1,149	₦465m	₦374m	9%	9.9 yr
50 100m2	21,145	1,478	₦1.59bn	₦1.59bn	29%	3.9 yr
100 250m2	6,654	1,272	₦4.4bn	₦3.93bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	1,033	389	₦7.97bn	₦6.67bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	16	13	₦1.3bn	₦1.3bn	61%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	100,892	3,797	₦9.72bn	₦7.96bn	7%	14.9 yr
Unclassified	12,863	405	₦1.56bn	₦1.47bn	5%	16.1 yr
Urban Centre	9,366	2,163	₦3.37bn	₦3.37bn	29%	3.9 yr
Dense Urban	8,202	756	₦1.41bn	₦1.41bn	15%	6.9 yr
Rural	3,293	17	₦50.2m	₦50.2m	7%	15.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	90,191	2,540	₦336m	₦336m	5%	16.1 yr
Residential Small	27,971	1,803	₦1.96bn	₦1.87bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential	8,564	1,205	₦9.85bn	₦8.08bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Informal	3,958	156	₦353m	₦348m	21%	5.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,277	748	₦152m	₦152m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	820	317	₦1.77bn	₦1.77bn	39%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	347	11	₦94.9m	₦94.9m	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	156	124	₦889m	₦889m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	84	64	₦68.2m	₦68.2m	83%	1.4 yr
School	57	42	₦21.3m	₦21.3m	79%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	43	34	₦476m	₦476m	55%	1.9 yr
Clinic	39	29	₦121m	₦121m	55%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	134,595	7,117	₦15.7bn	₦13.8bn
Industrial	16	16	₦421m	₦421m
Commercial	5	5	₦36.4m	₦36.4m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	133,214	6,633	₦12.9bn	₦11bn	7%	14.4 yr
SME High	1,170	329	₦1.87bn	₦1.87bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	232	176	₦1.34bn	₦1.34bn	59%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	89,659	2,574	₦335m	₦335m
2.0	19,366	1,260	₦1.43bn	₦1.34bn
3.0	14,256	2,173	₦11.8bn	₦10bn
1.0	8,332	846	₦290m	₦290m
4.0	2,185	97	₦617m	₦612m
5.0	689	137	₦506m	₦506m
6.0	129	51	₦1.16bn	₦1.16bn