Sokoto State

Rooftop solar in Tangaza, Sokoto: what the roofs are worth

Tangaza has 94,526 buildings with a viable rooftop and 415 MWp of roof capacity. 7% run a generator, and together they spend ₦5.63bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

94,526

Usable roof area

1.9 km²

415 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦5.63bn/yr

4.91 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

15.4 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Tangaza

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦5.63bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦5.32bn

Lifetime cash saved₦283bn

NPV₦41.2bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback15.4 yr

Unlocked energy5.51 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity40.4 MWp

Capex₦45bn

Year-one energy value₦50.4bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.4tn

NPV₦416bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Tangaza's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 40.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦45bn
Year 1 savings: ₦50.4bn/yr
NPV: ₦416bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Tangaza pays back quickly

Of the 94,360 buildings in Tangaza with a modelled payback, 17.8% pay back inside five years and 6.7% inside three.

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How much of Tangaza's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Tangaza consume 10 GWh/yr but want 15.6 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Tangaza

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Tangaza actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 94,360 buildings with a modelled result out of 94,526 in Tangaza. 20,217 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years6,351 (7%)

Under 5 years16,755 (18%)

Under 7 years20,262 (21%)

Under 10 years28,720 (30%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%25,340 (27%)

Above 15%20,217 (21%)

Above 20%17,698 (19%)

Above 25%15,038 (16%)

CO₂ avoided

10.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.5 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

5.51 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

170k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Tangaza.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Tangaza

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	49,043	1,540	₦1.58bn	₦1.58bn	7%	15.6 yr
E	31,778	775	₦686m	₦686m	5%	16.4 yr
C	13,615	4,049	₦3.36bn	₦3.05bn	17%	6.1 yr
B	90	0	₦1.57m	₦1.57m	19%	5.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	94,042	5,909	₦4.14bn	₦4.14bn	7%	15.4 yr
Anchor	213	202	₦1.27bn	₦954m	77%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	138	125	₦183m	₦183m	57%	1.9 yr
Worship	88	85	₦38.2m	₦38.2m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	43	43	₦3.33m	₦3.33m	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial	2	0	₦413k	₦413k	41%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	66,662	2,536	₦322m	₦322m	5%	16.9 yr
30 50m2	15,898	1,237	₦345m	₦345m	9%	9.9 yr
50 100m2	9,410	1,549	₦1.07bn	₦1.07bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	2,277	903	₦1.94bn	₦1.94bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	275	136	₦1.11bn	₦1.09bn	35%	3.1 yr
Over 1000m2	4	3	₦845m	₦548m	67%	1.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	40,162	267	₦629m	₦629m	5%	17.1 yr
Rural	40,038	1,115	₦1.41bn	₦1.41bn	7%	14.6 yr
Urban	7,939	1,502	₦1.03bn	₦1.03bn	9%	13.1 yr
Dense Urban	6,387	3,480	₦2.56bn	₦2.24bn	47%	2.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	72,870	2,116	₦272m	₦272m	5%	16.4 yr
Residential Small	13,520	2,650	₦1.41bn	₦1.41bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	7,652	1,143	₦2.45bn	₦2.45bn	17%	6.4 yr
Institutional	136	128	₦215m	₦215m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	80	75	₦94.3m	₦94.3m	87%	1.1 yr
School	60	59	₦34.9m	₦34.9m	85%	1.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	43	43	₦3.33m	₦3.33m	37%	2.9 yr
Healthcare Facility	35	32	₦932m	₦634m	61%	1.6 yr
Clinic	34	32	₦56m	₦56m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial	31	26	₦60.4m	₦60.4m	41%	2.6 yr
Worship Center	30	29	₦6.04m	₦6.04m	63%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	29	28	₦3.78m	₦3.78m	63%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	94,425	6,364	₦5.63bn	₦5.32bn
Retail	79	0	₦443k	₦443k
Farmland	22	0	₦396k	₦396k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	94,281	6,136	₦4.3bn	₦4.3bn	7%	15.4 yr
Enterprise	213	201	₦1.26bn	₦948m	77%	1.4 yr
SME High	32	27	₦66.2m	₦66.2m	41%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	72,885	2,130	₦273m	₦273m
2.0	9,974	1,798	₦1.42bn	₦1.42bn
1.0	6,458	820	₦362m	₦362m
3.0	5,198	1,608	₦3.53bn	₦3.22bn
4.0	11	8	₦44.5m	₦44.5m