Sokoto State

Rooftop solar in Wamakko, Sokoto: what the roofs are worth

Wamakko has 204,071 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.17 GWp of roof capacity. 13% run a generator, and together they spend ₦40.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

204,071

Usable roof area

9.71 km²

2.17 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦40.8bn/yr

30.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

6.4 yr

Median IRR 15% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Wamakko

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦40.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦40.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.36tn

NPV₦335bn

Median IRR15%

Median payback6.4 yr

Unlocked energy59.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity202 MWp

Capex₦198bn

Year-one energy value₦144bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.8tn

NPV₦1.11tn

Median IRR85%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Wamakko's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 202 MWp
Capital cost: ₦198bn
Year 1 savings: ₦144bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.11tn
Median IRR: 85%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Wamakko pays back quickly

Of the 198,669 buildings in Wamakko with a modelled payback, 37.3% pay back inside five years and 12.9% inside three.

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How much of Wamakko's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Wamakko consume 113 GWh/yr but want 172 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Wamakko

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Wamakko actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 198,669 buildings with a modelled result out of 204,071 in Wamakko. 106,447 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years25,646 (13%)

Under 5 years74,131 (37%)

Under 7 years106,855 (54%)

Under 10 years134,581 (68%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%128,272 (63%)

Above 15%106,447 (52%)

Above 20%81,948 (40%)

Above 25%61,422 (30%)

CO₂ avoided

90.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

11.7 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

59.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

268k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Wamakko.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Wamakko

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	61,713	8,725	₦19.3bn	₦19bn	21%	4.9 yr
B	48,296	11,138	₦15bn	₦15bn	21%	4.9 yr
C	32,229	2,185	₦3.99bn	₦3.99bn	15%	7.1 yr
D	31,655	1,768	₦1.33bn	₦1.33bn	7%	14.9 yr
E	30,178	1,726	₦1.17bn	₦1.17bn	7%	14.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	195,492	21,974	₦12bn	₦11.9bn	15%	6.6 yr
Commercial Retail	4,236	1,605	₦532m	₦532m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial General	3,737	1,636	₦17bn	₦17bn	39%	2.9 yr
Anchor	454	246	₦10.4bn	₦10.2bn	49%	2.1 yr
Worship	65	51	₦26m	₦26m	51%	2.1 yr
Industrial	46	16	₦366m	₦366m	41%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	31	12	₦441m	₦410m	39%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	5	0	₦5.11m	₦5.11m	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	4	2	₦32.6m	₦32.6m	37%	2.4 yr
Productive Use	1	0	₦70.2k	₦70.2k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	98,710	9,001	₦1.03bn	₦1.03bn	7%	13.9 yr
30 50m2	38,499	3,849	₦893m	₦886m	15%	7.1 yr
50 100m2	35,435	4,767	₦2.36bn	₦2.34bn	23%	4.4 yr
100 250m2	24,157	5,420	₦6.56bn	₦6.55bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	6,998	2,363	₦16bn	₦15.9bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	272	142	₦13.9bn	₦13.8bn	41%	2.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	108,225	17,863	₦25.2bn	₦24.9bn	21%	5.1 yr
Urban	50,720	4,033	₦5.73bn	₦5.72bn	7%	13.9 yr
Dense Urban	20,782	2,796	₦5.21bn	₦5.19bn	17%	6.1 yr
Rural	12,313	48	₦124m	₦124m	7%	15.4 yr
Unclassified	12,031	802	₦4.55bn	₦4.54bn	7%	14.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	101,396	7,569	₦851m	₦851m	9%	13.1 yr
Residential Informal	46,912	5,262	₦2.27bn	₦2.26bn	19%	5.1 yr
Residential Small	28,226	4,339	₦2.05bn	₦2.03bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	13,901	3,117	₦6.59bn	₦6.5bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Formal	4,638	1,497	₦215m	₦215m	25%	4.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	4,237	1,605	₦532m	₦532m	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	2,191	908	₦11.4bn	₦11.4bn	39%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,178	564	₦4.76bn	₦4.76bn	39%	2.6 yr
Apartment	348	157	₦22.5m	₦22.5m	31%	3.6 yr
Institutional	260	139	₦9.35bn	₦9.24bn	37%	2.9 yr
Unknown	141	48	₦331m	₦331m	33%	3.1 yr
Educational Facility	122	63	₦124m	₦124m	53%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	203,443	25,337	₦38.3bn	₦37.9bn
Industrial	626	205	₦2.53bn	₦2.53bn
Farmland	2	0	₦1.17m	₦1.17m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	200,218	23,817	₦13.8bn	₦13.7bn	15%	6.6 yr
SME High	3,385	1,474	₦16.3bn	₦16.3bn	39%	2.6 yr
Enterprise	468	251	₦10.7bn	₦10.5bn	49%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	100,036	7,434	₦830m	₦830m
3.0	35,093	7,029	₦15.3bn	₦15bn
2.0	32,793	4,311	₦1.83bn	₦1.81bn
4.0	21,100	4,269	₦8.53bn	₦8.5bn
1.0	12,765	1,674	₦441m	₦436m
5.0	1,599	527	₦5.7bn	₦5.7bn
6.0	685	298	₦8.19bn	₦8.15bn