Sokoto State

Rooftop solar in Tureta, Sokoto: what the roofs are worth

Tureta has 51,305 buildings with a viable rooftop and 240 MWp of roof capacity. 8% run a generator, and together they spend ₦7.12bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

51,305

Usable roof area

1.09 km²

240 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦7.12bn/yr

6.31 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

16.1 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Tureta

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦7.12bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦6.82bn

Lifetime cash saved₦362bn

NPV₦55.2bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback16.1 yr

Unlocked energy6.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity43.5 MWp

Capex₦47.1bn

Year-one energy value₦53.6bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.52tn

NPV₦440bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Tureta's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 43.5 MWp
Capital cost: ₦47.1bn
Year 1 savings: ₦53.6bn/yr
NPV: ₦440bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Tureta pays back quickly

Of the 51,036 buildings in Tureta with a modelled payback, 21.6% pay back inside five years and 7.9% inside three.

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How much of Tureta's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Tureta consume 11.9 GWh/yr but want 18.2 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Tureta

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Tureta actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 51,036 buildings with a modelled result out of 51,305 in Tureta. 12,760 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years4,013 (8%)

Under 5 years11,035 (22%)

Under 7 years12,776 (25%)

Under 10 years14,504 (28%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%13,550 (26%)

Above 15%12,760 (25%)

Above 20%11,471 (22%)

Above 25%10,478 (20%)

CO₂ avoided

13 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.31 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

6.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

225k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Tureta.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Tureta

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	23,632	1,057	₦1.26bn	₦1.26bn	5%	16.4 yr
D	22,724	1,226	₦2.41bn	₦2.26bn	5%	16.6 yr
C	4,949	1,700	₦3.45bn	₦3.29bn	21%	5.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	50,289	3,220	₦5.36bn	₦5.21bn	5%	16.4 yr
Commercial Retail	674	465	₦61m	₦61m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	182	146	₦299m	₦299m	59%	1.9 yr
Anchor	142	137	₦1.38bn	₦1.22bn	77%	1.4 yr
Worship	15	12	₦16.3m	₦16.3m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	3	3	₦8.65m	₦8.65m	47%	2.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	36,159	1,928	₦232m	₦232m	5%	17.6 yr
30 50m2	7,942	694	₦290m	₦290m	9%	13.1 yr
50 100m2	5,543	744	₦1.1bn	₦1.1bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	1,337	451	₦1.72bn	₦1.65bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	303	155	₦2.26bn	₦2.17bn	59%	1.9 yr
Over 1000m2	21	11	₦1.52bn	₦1.37bn	49%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	25,806	922	₦3.27bn	₦3.04bn	5%	16.4 yr
Unclassified	12,340	129	₦1.1bn	₦1.04bn	5%	17.9 yr
Rural	8,750	1,246	₦636m	₦636m	7%	15.4 yr
Dense Urban	4,409	1,686	₦2.12bn	₦2.11bn	29%	3.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	40,713	1,800	₦176m	₦176m	5%	17.1 yr
Residential Small	6,332	870	₦1.31bn	₦1.31bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	2,381	462	₦3.8bn	₦3.66bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Informal	863	88	₦67.4m	₦67.4m	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	674	465	₦61m	₦61m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial	94	64	₦49.6m	₦49.6m	63%	1.6 yr
Institutional	84	78	₦808m	₦808m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	55	51	₦127m	₦127m	87%	1.1 yr
School	37	36	₦34.8m	₦34.8m	81%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	25	25	₦469m	₦315m	57%	1.9 yr
Clinic	18	18	₦142m	₦142m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	9	9	₦9.02m	₦9.02m	71%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	51,305	3,983	₦7.12bn	₦6.82bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	51,057	3,770	₦5.67bn	₦5.53bn	5%	16.1 yr
Enterprise	145	140	₦1.39bn	₦1.23bn	77%	1.4 yr
SME High	103	73	₦58.6m	₦58.6m	69%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	40,737	1,815	₦177m	₦177m
2.0	3,973	661	₦1.09bn	₦1.05bn
1.0	3,558	709	₦517m	₦517m
3.0	2,952	786	₦5.28bn	₦5.01bn
4.0	85	12	₦62.6m	₦62.6m