Sokoto State

Rooftop solar in Rabah, Sokoto: what the roofs are worth

Rabah has 79,986 buildings with a viable rooftop and 405 MWp of roof capacity. 3% run a generator, and together they spend ₦6.94bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

79,986

Usable roof area

1.83 km²

405 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦6.94bn/yr

5.54 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.1 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Rabah

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦6.94bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦6.27bn

Lifetime cash saved₦338bn

NPV₦50bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.1 yr

Unlocked energy7.42 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity52.4 MWp

Capex₦57.1bn

Year-one energy value₦63.8bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.01tn

NPV₦524bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Rabah's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 52.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦57.1bn
Year 1 savings: ₦63.8bn/yr
NPV: ₦524bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Rabah pays back quickly

Of the 79,315 buildings in Rabah with a modelled payback, 22.9% pay back inside five years and 3.5% inside three.

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How much of Rabah's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Rabah consume 13.4 GWh/yr but want 20.8 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Rabah

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Rabah actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 79,315 buildings with a modelled result out of 79,986 in Rabah. 26,905 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years2,811 (4%)

Under 5 years18,147 (23%)

Under 7 years26,990 (34%)

Under 10 years34,191 (43%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%31,645 (40%)

Above 15%26,905 (34%)

Above 20%20,041 (25%)

Above 25%15,897 (20%)

CO₂ avoided

13 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.74 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

7.42 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

259k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Rabah.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Rabah

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	38,671	971	₦2.31bn	₦2.28bn	7%	14.9 yr
E	28,531	337	₦2.47bn	₦1.9bn	7%	14.6 yr
C	12,784	1,482	₦2.16bn	₦2.1bn	15%	7.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	79,182	2,045	₦5.37bn	₦4.71bn	7%	14.1 yr
Commercial Retail	281	281	₦60.5m	₦60.5m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	263	241	₦603m	₦603m	65%	1.6 yr
Anchor	209	173	₦892m	₦883m	77%	1.4 yr
Worship	47	47	₦12m	₦12m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	4	3	₦3.74m	₦3.74m	67%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	51,743	1,222	₦218m	₦218m	5%	16.6 yr
30 50m2	13,446	457	₦227m	₦227m	11%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	11,779	609	₦1.1bn	₦1.07bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	2,681	398	₦2.07bn	₦1.91bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	325	99	₦2.19bn	₦1.82bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	12	5	₦1.14bn	₦1.03bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Rural	25,570	172	₦1.45bn	₦1.25bn	7%	15.1 yr
Dense Urban	20,040	1,588	₦1.82bn	₦1.81bn	17%	5.9 yr
Unclassified	17,951	127	₦1.7bn	₦1.25bn	5%	17.4 yr
Urban	16,425	903	₦1.97bn	₦1.96bn	7%	14.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	53,679	947	₦175m	₦175m	5%	16.1 yr
Residential Small	12,526	659	₦1.08bn	₦1.05bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	8,328	439	₦3.9bn	₦3.28bn	13%	7.4 yr
Residential Informal	4,649	0	₦207m	₦205m	31%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	281	281	₦60.5m	₦60.5m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	157	155	₦509m	₦509m	65%	1.6 yr
Institutional	118	98	₦165m	₦165m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	86	71	₦97.7m	₦97.7m	83%	1.1 yr
School	60	45	₦49.5m	₦49.5m	81%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	30	28	₦226m	₦222m	57%	1.9 yr
Clinic	28	26	₦148m	₦148m	55%	1.9 yr
Place Of Worship	16	16	₦1.99m	₦1.99m	63%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	79,986	2,790	₦6.94bn	₦6.27bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	79,615	2,458	₦5.53bn	₦4.88bn	7%	14.1 yr
Enterprise	213	176	₦896m	₦887m	77%	1.4 yr
SME High	158	156	₦509m	₦509m	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	53,687	954	₦175m	₦175m
2.0	12,242	642	₦1.2bn	₦1.14bn
1.0	6,611	557	₦341m	₦341m
3.0	6,536	601	₦4.8bn	₦4.21bn
4.0	909	35	₦385m	₦385m
5.0	1	1	₦28.8m	₦28.8m