Sokoto State

Rooftop solar in Sokoto North, Sokoto: what the roofs are worth

Sokoto North has 80,897 buildings with a viable rooftop and 968 MWp of roof capacity. 12% run a generator, and together they spend ₦9.96bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

80,897

Usable roof area

4.34 km²

968 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦9.96bn/yr

6.37 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Sokoto North

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦9.96bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦9.84bn

Lifetime cash saved₦574bn

NPV₦79.4bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy15.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity52.8 MWp

Capex₦54.1bn

Year-one energy value₦37.6bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.77tn

NPV₦286bn

Median IRR75%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Sokoto North's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 52.8 MWp
Capital cost: ₦54.1bn
Year 1 savings: ₦37.6bn/yr
NPV: ₦286bn
Median IRR: 75%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Sokoto North pays back quickly

Of the 79,589 buildings in Sokoto North with a modelled payback, 56.0% pay back inside five years and 8.6% inside three.

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How much of Sokoto North's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Sokoto North consume 27.9 GWh/yr but want 43.5 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Sokoto North

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Sokoto North actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 79,589 buildings with a modelled result out of 80,897 in Sokoto North. 63,710 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years6,825 (9%)

Under 5 years44,545 (56%)

Under 7 years63,881 (80%)

Under 10 years74,342 (93%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%73,203 (90%)

Above 15%63,710 (79%)

Above 20%50,295 (62%)

Above 25%33,929 (42%)

CO₂ avoided

23 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.96 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

15.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

107k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Sokoto North.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Sokoto North

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	67,980	8,209	₦7.08bn	₦7.04bn	23%	4.6 yr
A	12,724	1,565	₦2.14bn	₦2.1bn	21%	5.4 yr
C	193	150	₦737m	₦703m	63%	1.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	78,058	9,478	₦5.35bn	₦5.27bn	23%	4.9 yr
Commercial Retail	1,318	113	₦86.2m	₦86.2m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial General	1,299	273	₦2.91bn	₦2.9bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	167	43	₦1.48bn	₦1.45bn	45%	2.4 yr
Worship	27	8	₦5.89m	₦5.89m	37%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	13	7	₦88.3m	₦88.3m	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial	6	0	₦2.13m	₦2.13m	39%	2.6 yr
Mall Retail	5	1	₦36m	₦36m	37%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	2	0	₦988k	₦988k	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	2	1	₦239k	₦239k	37%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	28,263	3,256	₦325m	₦292m	17%	5.9 yr
50 100m2	21,535	2,440	₦798m	₦798m	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	15,870	1,797	₦295m	₦293m	23%	4.9 yr
100 250m2	12,542	1,754	₦2.4bn	₦2.37bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	2,610	627	₦3.77bn	₦3.73bn	31%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	77	50	₦2.37bn	₦2.36bn	49%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	80,181	9,773	₦9.62bn	₦9.53bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	670	145	₦334m	₦300m	27%	3.9 yr
Urban	46	6	₦10.6m	₦10.6m	17%	5.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	55,172	7,168	₦3.21bn	₦3.15bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	18,979	1,580	₦194m	₦194m	19%	5.4 yr
Residential Small	2,942	502	₦220m	₦217m	21%	4.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,317	111	₦83m	₦83m	35%	3.1 yr
Residential	965	228	₦1.72bn	₦1.71bn	31%	3.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	732	165	₦1.27bn	₦1.27bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	365	44	₦1.13bn	₦1.12bn	37%	2.9 yr
Unknown	100	35	₦329m	₦329m	33%	3.4 yr
Institutional	80	22	₦1.21bn	₦1.21bn	33%	3.4 yr
School	51	11	₦25.5m	₦25.5m	47%	2.4 yr
Educational Facility	45	13	₦39.3m	₦39.3m	49%	2.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	23	4	₦112m	₦112m	31%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	80,897	9,924	₦9.96bn	₦9.84bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	79,612	9,662	₦6.01bn	₦5.94bn	23%	4.6 yr
SME High	1,114	219	₦2.47bn	₦2.46bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	171	43	₦1.48bn	₦1.45bn	45%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	24,191	3,130	₦3.11bn	₦3.06bn
4.0	20,594	2,678	₦4.69bn	₦4.63bn
2.0	14,896	2,079	₦296m	₦295m
0.0	10,915	758	₦98.9m	₦98.9m
1.0	9,590	1,146	₦151m	₦151m
5.0	662	119	₦1.21bn	₦1.2bn
6.0	49	14	₦405m	₦405m