Sokoto State

Rooftop solar in Shagari, Sokoto: what the roofs are worth

Shagari has 84,182 buildings with a viable rooftop and 483 MWp of roof capacity. 7% run a generator, and together they spend ₦5.07bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

84,182

Usable roof area

2.19 km²

483 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦5.07bn/yr

3.76 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

13.9 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Shagari

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦5.07bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦5.07bn

Lifetime cash saved₦285bn

NPV₦40.2bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback13.9 yr

Unlocked energy7.63 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity58.2 MWp

Capex₦63.4bn

Year-one energy value₦70.6bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.36tn

NPV₦582bn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Shagari's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 58.2 MWp
Capital cost: ₦63.4bn
Year 1 savings: ₦70.6bn/yr
NPV: ₦582bn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Shagari pays back quickly

Of the 83,044 buildings in Shagari with a modelled payback, 28.2% pay back inside five years and 7.0% inside three.

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How much of Shagari's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Shagari consume 11.1 GWh/yr but want 18.8 GWh/yr. The 41% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Shagari

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Shagari actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 83,044 buildings with a modelled result out of 84,182 in Shagari. 28,270 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years5,840 (7%)

Under 5 years23,448 (28%)

Under 7 years28,340 (34%)

Under 10 years35,921 (43%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%32,599 (39%)

Above 15%28,270 (34%)

Above 20%24,758 (29%)

Above 25%20,700 (25%)

CO₂ avoided

11.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.05 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

7.63 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

297k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Shagari.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Shagari

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	35,893	2,946	₦1.94bn	₦1.94bn	7%	14.4 yr
E	35,021	1,722	₦1.54bn	₦1.54bn	7%	14.4 yr
C	13,268	1,058	₦1.59bn	₦1.59bn	13%	7.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	82,541	4,313	₦3.84bn	₦3.84bn	7%	14.1 yr
Commercial General	1,036	922	₦631m	₦631m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	369	292	₦37.3m	₦37.3m	49%	2.1 yr
Anchor	215	185	₦562m	₦562m	79%	1.4 yr
Worship	17	11	₦1.81m	₦1.81m	51%	2.1 yr
Hospitality	2	2	₦1.45m	₦1.45m	59%	1.4 yr
Mall Retail	1	0	₦26.6k	₦26.6k	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	1	1	₦215k	₦215k	69%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	47,284	2,538	₦303m	₦303m	5%	16.6 yr
30 50m2	18,140	1,131	₦424m	₦424m	9%	9.9 yr
50 100m2	15,320	1,348	₦1.67bn	₦1.67bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	3,066	575	₦1.29bn	₦1.29bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	363	129	₦1.24bn	₦1.24bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	9	5	₦145m	₦145m	57%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	52,250	4,628	₦3.19bn	₦3.19bn	9%	13.6 yr
Unclassified	12,063	125	₦289m	₦289m	5%	16.4 yr
Dense Urban	10,687	896	₦1.36bn	₦1.36bn	15%	6.9 yr
Rural	9,182	77	₦232m	₦232m	7%	14.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	54,572	1,775	₦218m	₦218m	5%	16.1 yr
Residential Small	17,665	1,407	₦1.84bn	₦1.84bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	8,774	1,131	₦1.75bn	₦1.75bn	19%	5.6 yr
Residential Informal	1,530	0	₦27.1m	₦27.1m	17%	6.1 yr
Market	526	520	₦50.3m	₦50.3m	61%	1.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	370	293	₦37.5m	₦37.5m	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial	325	237	₦324m	₦324m	63%	1.6 yr
Institutional	114	101	₦190m	₦190m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	81	70	₦86.7m	₦86.7m	85%	1.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	68	62	₦61.1m	₦61.1m	49%	2.1 yr
School	60	50	₦32.7m	₦32.7m	81%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	38	33	₦89.6m	₦89.6m	55%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	84,181	5,726	₦5.07bn	₦5.07bn
Farmyard	1	0	₦71.6k	₦71.6k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	83,573	5,241	₦4.12bn	₦4.12bn	7%	13.9 yr
SME High	394	300	₦386m	₦386m	51%	2.1 yr
Enterprise	215	185	₦562m	₦562m	79%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	54,586	1,786	₦219m	₦219m
2.0	14,635	1,529	₦1.42bn	₦1.42bn
1.0	9,245	1,366	₦651m	₦651m
3.0	5,475	1,014	₦2.61bn	₦2.61bn
4.0	241	31	₦175m	₦175m