Sokoto State

Rooftop solar in Gudu, Sokoto: what the roofs are worth

Gudu has 86,477 buildings with a viable rooftop and 321 MWp of roof capacity. 1% run a generator, and together they spend ₦3.97bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

86,477

Usable roof area

1.48 km²

321 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦3.97bn/yr

3.33 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

17.1 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Gudu

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦3.97bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦3.88bn

Lifetime cash saved₦207bn

NPV₦29.4bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback17.1 yr

Unlocked energy3.85 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity29 MWp

Capex₦32.7bn

Year-one energy value₦36.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.74tn

NPV₦303bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Gudu's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 29 MWp
Capital cost: ₦32.7bn
Year 1 savings: ₦36.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦303bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Gudu pays back quickly

Of the 86,218 buildings in Gudu with a modelled payback, 7.1% pay back inside five years and 1.3% inside three.

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How much of Gudu's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Gudu consume 6.82 GWh/yr but want 10.7 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Gudu

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Gudu actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 86,218 buildings with a modelled result out of 86,477 in Gudu. 7,638 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years1,158 (1%)

Under 5 years6,083 (7%)

Under 7 years7,675 (9%)

Under 10 years13,420 (16%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%11,479 (13%)

Above 15%7,638 (9%)

Above 20%6,304 (7%)

Above 25%5,603 (6%)

CO₂ avoided

7.59 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

1.88 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

3.85 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

157k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Gudu.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Gudu

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	50,016	966	₦2.17bn	₦2.17bn	5%	17.4 yr
E	29,547	173	₦1.59bn	₦1.5bn	5%	17.1 yr
C	6,914	8	₦214m	₦214m	7%	13.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	86,226	956	₦3.22bn	₦3.13bn	5%	17.1 yr
Anchor	127	98	₦561m	₦561m	71%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	70	54	₦184m	₦184m	57%	1.9 yr
Worship	51	36	₦8.7m	₦8.7m	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	3	3	₦1.82m	₦1.82m	77%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	66,553	446	₦182m	₦171m	5%	17.9 yr
30 50m2	12,616	222	₦164m	₦164m	7%	14.1 yr
50 100m2	6,064	205	₦571m	₦564m	25%	4.4 yr
100 250m2	1,090	199	₦1.26bn	₦1.18bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	149	70	₦1.16bn	₦1.16bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	5	5	₦635m	₦635m	91%	1.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	55,508	117	₦1.26bn	₦1.19bn	5%	17.4 yr
Rural	24,638	647	₦986m	₦975m	5%	16.6 yr
Urban	3,811	73	₦1.19bn	₦1.18bn	7%	15.1 yr
Dense Urban	2,520	310	₦536m	₦536m	7%	14.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	73,480	435	₦151m	₦151m	5%	17.6 yr
Residential Small	8,734	334	₦707m	₦700m	19%	5.6 yr
Residential	4,012	187	₦2.36bn	₦2.27bn	15%	6.9 yr
Institutional	82	63	₦396m	₦396m	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	50	41	₦66.3m	₦66.3m	83%	1.1 yr
School	31	25	₦33.4m	₦33.4m	83%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	25	16	₦169m	₦169m	55%	1.9 yr
Clinic	19	14	₦82m	₦82m	57%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	17	12	₦2.07m	₦2.07m	61%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	17	12	₦625k	₦625k	51%	2.1 yr
Industrial Site	3	3	₦1.82m	₦1.82m	77%	1.4 yr
Market	3	3	₦1.39m	₦1.39m	71%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	86,477	1,147	₦3.97bn	₦3.88bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	86,345	1,045	₦3.41bn	₦3.32bn	5%	17.1 yr
Enterprise	130	101	₦563m	₦563m	71%	1.4 yr
SME High	2	1	₦930k	₦930k	37%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	73,488	440	₦152m	₦152m
2.0	6,283	255	₦1.04bn	₦962m
1.0	4,045	126	₦180m	₦168m
3.0	2,661	326	₦2.6bn	₦2.6bn