Sokoto State

Rooftop solar in Silame, Sokoto: what the roofs are worth

Silame has 55,135 buildings with a viable rooftop and 242 MWp of roof capacity. 5% run a generator, and together they spend ₦8.58bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

55,135

Usable roof area

1.1 km²

242 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦8.58bn/yr

7.56 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.9 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Silame

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦8.58bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦7.75bn

Lifetime cash saved₦398bn

NPV₦62.6bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.9 yr

Unlocked energy5.53 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity39.5 MWp

Capex₦43bn

Year-one energy value₦49.4bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.32tn

NPV₦406bn

Median IRR107%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Silame's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 39.5 MWp
Capital cost: ₦43bn
Year 1 savings: ₦49.4bn/yr
NPV: ₦406bn
Median IRR: 107%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Silame pays back quickly

Of the 54,981 buildings in Silame with a modelled payback, 22.1% pay back inside five years and 5.5% inside three.

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How much of Silame's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Silame consume 13 GWh/yr but want 18.5 GWh/yr. The 30% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Silame

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Silame actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 54,981 buildings with a modelled result out of 55,135 in Silame. 15,630 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,030 (6%)

Under 5 years12,129 (22%)

Under 7 years15,669 (28%)

Under 10 years20,660 (38%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%18,971 (34%)

Above 15%15,630 (28%)

Above 20%12,996 (24%)

Above 25%10,420 (19%)

CO₂ avoided

14 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.01 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

5.53 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

203k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Silame.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Silame

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	26,627	1,101	₦1.52bn	₦1.5bn	7%	15.6 yr
E	23,507	1,636	₦2.92bn	₦2.75bn	7%	14.6 yr
C	5,001	283	₦4.14bn	₦3.5bn	19%	5.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	54,647	2,575	₦7.02bn	₦6.36bn	7%	14.9 yr
Anchor	268	244	₦1.3bn	₦1.14bn	79%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	154	139	₦237m	₦237m	57%	1.9 yr
Worship	56	53	₦12m	₦12m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	6	6	₦2.38m	₦2.38m	75%	1.4 yr
Industrial	4	3	₦5.33m	₦5.33m	69%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	38,443	1,380	₦319m	₦315m	5%	16.6 yr
30 50m2	9,339	563	₦386m	₦385m	9%	9.6 yr
50 100m2	6,026	616	₦1.4bn	₦1.4bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	1,139	356	₦2.9bn	₦2.45bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	184	102	₦2.77bn	₦2.59bn	61%	1.6 yr
Over 1000m2	4	3	₦796m	₦612m	63%	1.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	22,069	1,422	₦2.74bn	₦2.34bn	7%	14.1 yr
Unclassified	14,923	489	₦1.66bn	₦1.5bn	5%	17.1 yr
Rural	13,447	230	₦297m	₦297m	7%	14.6 yr
Dense Urban	4,696	879	₦3.88bn	₦3.61bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	35,162	887	₦118m	₦118m	5%	16.6 yr
Residential Small	10,316	1,055	₦2.04bn	₦2.04bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	9,169	633	₦4.86bn	₦4.2bn	15%	6.9 yr
Institutional	159	144	₦218m	₦218m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	103	94	₦106m	₦106m	85%	1.1 yr
School	76	68	₦49.5m	₦49.5m	83%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	41	38	₦882m	₦732m	57%	1.9 yr
Clinic	34	31	₦157m	₦142m	55%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	19	18	₦2.27m	₦2.27m	63%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	19	18	₦3.04m	₦3.04m	63%	1.6 yr
Compound University	12	11	₦1.95m	₦1.95m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial	10	10	₦79.2m	₦79.2m	77%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	55,135	3,020	₦8.58bn	₦7.75bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	54,853	2,763	₦7.19bn	₦6.53bn	7%	14.9 yr
Enterprise	272	247	₦1.31bn	₦1.14bn	79%	1.4 yr
SME High	10	10	₦79.2m	₦79.2m	77%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	35,177	901	₦119m	₦119m
2.0	9,771	897	₦1.33bn	₦1.32bn
1.0	7,225	488	₦389m	₦386m
3.0	2,958	730	₦6.68bn	₦5.87bn
4.0	4	4	₦59.1m	₦59.1m