Sokoto State

Rooftop solar in Yabo, Sokoto: what the roofs are worth

Yabo has 63,317 buildings with a viable rooftop and 389 MWp of roof capacity. 7% run a generator, and together they spend ₦5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

63,317

Usable roof area

1.76 km²

389 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦5bn/yr

4.48 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.4 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Yabo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦4.87bn

Lifetime cash saved₦260bn

NPV₦39bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.4 yr

Unlocked energy5.17 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity36 MWp

Capex₦39.1bn

Year-one energy value₦42.6bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.02tn

NPV₦351bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Yabo's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 36 MWp
Capital cost: ₦39.1bn
Year 1 savings: ₦42.6bn/yr
NPV: ₦351bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Yabo pays back quickly

Of the 61,838 buildings in Yabo with a modelled payback, 24.3% pay back inside five years and 7.1% inside three.

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How much of Yabo's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Yabo consume 8.76 GWh/yr but want 13.9 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Yabo

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Yabo actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 61,838 buildings with a modelled result out of 63,317 in Yabo. 19,322 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years4,395 (7%)

Under 5 years15,026 (24%)

Under 7 years19,380 (31%)

Under 10 years25,566 (41%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%23,385 (37%)

Above 15%19,322 (31%)

Above 20%16,008 (25%)

Above 25%13,066 (21%)

CO₂ avoided

9.51 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.27 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

5.17 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

154k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Yabo.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Yabo

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	27,960	1,792	₦1.75bn	₦1.72bn	7%	14.9 yr
E	24,617	1,819	₦2.04bn	₦1.94bn	7%	15.1 yr
C	10,740	685	₦1.21bn	₦1.21bn	13%	7.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	61,045	2,376	₦3.52bn	₦3.4bn	7%	14.6 yr
Commercial Retail	1,336	1,174	₦103m	₦103m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	738	588	₦727m	₦727m	61%	1.6 yr
Anchor	189	155	₦644m	₦644m	73%	1.4 yr
Worship	5	3	₦674k	₦674k	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial	4	0	₦162k	₦162k	39%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	35,952	1,759	₦191m	₦191m	5%	17.4 yr
30 50m2	12,631	849	₦212m	₦212m	9%	9.9 yr
50 100m2	10,971	1,039	₦957m	₦953m	27%	4.1 yr
100 250m2	3,419	523	₦1.86bn	₦1.76bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	340	123	₦1.3bn	₦1.29bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	4	3	₦473m	₦473m	67%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	31,553	2,338	₦2.3bn	₦2.27bn	7%	14.4 yr
Unclassified	14,106	283	₦1.33bn	₦1.24bn	5%	17.1 yr
Dense Urban	10,086	1,422	₦1.11bn	₦1.11bn	15%	6.1 yr
Rural	7,572	253	₦256m	₦251m	7%	13.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	38,053	679	₦116m	₦116m	5%	16.6 yr
Residential Small	12,552	1,077	₦943m	₦943m	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	5,915	620	₦2.42bn	₦2.3bn	19%	5.1 yr
Residential Formal	3,241	0	₦9.5m	₦9.5m	5%	13.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,336	1,174	₦103m	₦103m	59%	1.9 yr
Residential Informal	1,280	0	₦28.7m	₦28.7m	19%	5.4 yr
Commercial	423	368	₦464m	₦464m	63%	1.6 yr
Market	158	105	₦28.5m	₦28.5m	71%	1.4 yr
Institutional	94	76	₦519m	₦519m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	73	59	₦58.3m	₦58.3m	83%	1.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	56	38	₦41.9m	₦41.9m	59%	1.9 yr
School	56	44	₦26.5m	₦26.5m	81%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	63,225	4,296	₦4.99bn	₦4.87bn
Farmland	92	0	₦963k	₦963k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	62,649	3,735	₦3.85bn	₦3.72bn	7%	14.4 yr
SME High	479	406	₦506m	₦506m	63%	1.6 yr
Enterprise	189	155	₦644m	₦644m	73%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	38,079	709	₦117m	₦117m
2.0	10,054	890	₦804m	₦795m
3.0	6,726	1,170	₦3.36bn	₦3.25bn
1.0	5,521	1,498	₦373m	₦373m
4.0	2,936	28	₦340m	₦340m
5.0	1	1	₦3.86m	₦3.86m