Sokoto State

Rooftop solar in Isa, Sokoto: what the roofs are worth

Isa has 69,800 buildings with a viable rooftop and 417 MWp of roof capacity. 17% run a generator, and together they spend ₦18.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

69,800

Usable roof area

1.89 km²

417 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦18.3bn/yr

14.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

6.6 yr

Median IRR 15% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Isa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦18.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦17.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦922bn

NPV₦146bn

Median IRR15%

Median payback6.6 yr

Unlocked energy12.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity63.8 MWp

Capex₦69.4bn

Year-one energy value₦77.4bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.66tn

NPV₦636bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Isa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 63.8 MWp
Capital cost: ₦69.4bn
Year 1 savings: ₦77.4bn/yr
NPV: ₦636bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Isa pays back quickly

Of the 69,633 buildings in Isa with a modelled payback, 40.3% pay back inside five years and 16.8% inside three.

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How much of Isa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Isa consume 26.2 GWh/yr but want 38.4 GWh/yr. The 32% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Isa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Isa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 69,633 buildings with a modelled result out of 69,800 in Isa. 35,350 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years11,725 (17%)

Under 5 years28,059 (40%)

Under 7 years35,436 (51%)

Under 10 years41,515 (60%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%39,737 (57%)

Above 15%35,350 (51%)

Above 20%29,704 (43%)

Above 25%25,604 (37%)

CO₂ avoided

32.7 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

9.68 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

12.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

268k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Isa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Isa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	29,082	4,116	₦5.63bn	₦5.18bn	9%	13.1 yr
C	20,640	4,426	₦8.77bn	₦8.76bn	25%	4.1 yr
E	20,078	3,392	₦3.89bn	₦3.75bn	9%	13.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	69,005	11,205	₦17.6bn	₦17bn	15%	6.9 yr
Anchor	286	259	₦463m	₦463m	83%	1.4 yr
Commercial Retail	225	211	₦21.3m	₦21.3m	67%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	184	170	₦176m	₦176m	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	98	87	₦40.5m	₦40.5m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	2	2	₦651k	₦651k	53%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	43,575	5,694	₦764m	₦764m	7%	14.9 yr
30 50m2	11,134	1,892	₦751m	₦751m	21%	5.1 yr
50 100m2	10,472	2,532	₦3.25bn	₦3.24bn	31%	3.4 yr
100 250m2	3,985	1,436	₦6.55bn	₦6.24bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	628	376	₦6.82bn	₦6.54bn	61%	1.9 yr
Over 1000m2	6	4	₦156m	₦156m	47%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	23,968	7,551	₦9.23bn	₦9.23bn	29%	3.6 yr
Unclassified	18,003	491	₦2.91bn	₦2.46bn	5%	16.1 yr
Rural	17,777	2,337	₦1.75bn	₦1.75bn	9%	13.6 yr
Urban	10,052	1,555	₦4.4bn	₦4.24bn	19%	5.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	37,489	3,607	₦337m	₦337m	7%	15.4 yr
Residential Small	13,880	4,243	₦4.04bn	₦4.03bn	31%	3.4 yr
Residential	10,022	2,412	₦11.9bn	₦11.4bn	23%	4.9 yr
Residential Informal	5,560	535	₦1.08bn	₦1.08bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	1,891	357	₦174m	₦174m	31%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	225	211	₦21.3m	₦21.3m	67%	1.6 yr
Institutional	180	164	₦235m	₦235m	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	112	99	₦104m	₦104m	89%	1.1 yr
Apartment	106	33	₦10.4m	₦10.4m	31%	3.4 yr
School	99	87	₦68.8m	₦68.8m	87%	1.1 yr
Duplex	57	18	₦5.46m	₦5.46m	31%	3.4 yr
Clinic	37	36	₦82.7m	₦82.7m	57%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	69,793	11,934	₦18.3bn	₦17.7bn
Farmland	7	0	₦10k	₦10k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	69,476	11,639	₦17.8bn	₦17.2bn	15%	6.9 yr
Enterprise	287	260	₦463m	₦463m	83%	1.4 yr
SME High	37	35	₦20.2m	₦20.2m	69%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	37,473	3,623	₦337m	₦337m
2.0	14,470	3,512	₦3.7bn	₦3.39bn
3.0	8,428	2,756	₦12.7bn	₦12.4bn
1.0	6,879	1,551	₦698m	₦693m
4.0	2,550	492	₦882m	₦882m