Sokoto State

Rooftop solar in Binji, Sokoto: what the roofs are worth

Binji has 47,994 buildings with a viable rooftop and 234 MWp of roof capacity. 5% run a generator, and together they spend ₦8.28bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

47,994

Usable roof area

1.07 km²

234 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦8.28bn/yr

7.38 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

14.4 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Binji

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦8.28bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦7.52bn

Lifetime cash saved₦389bn

NPV₦59.9bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback14.4 yr

Unlocked energy5.18 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity40.5 MWp

Capex₦44bn

Year-one energy value₦50.4bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.37tn

NPV₦413bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Binji's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 40.5 MWp
Capital cost: ₦44bn
Year 1 savings: ₦50.4bn/yr
NPV: ₦413bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Binji pays back quickly

Of the 47,960 buildings in Binji with a modelled payback, 23.7% pay back inside five years and 4.7% inside three.

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How much of Binji's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Binji consume 13.4 GWh/yr but want 18.6 GWh/yr. The 28% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Binji

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Binji actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 47,960 buildings with a modelled result out of 47,994 in Binji. 14,743 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years2,238 (5%)

Under 5 years11,353 (24%)

Under 7 years14,784 (31%)

Under 10 years19,359 (40%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%17,684 (37%)

Above 15%14,743 (31%)

Above 20%12,152 (25%)

Above 25%10,349 (22%)

CO₂ avoided

13.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.76 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

5.18 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

207k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Binji.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Binji

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	21,678	637	₦1.55bn	₦1.45bn	7%	14.4 yr
D	19,536	377	₦3.19bn	₦2.56bn	7%	15.4 yr
C	6,780	1,220	₦3.54bn	₦3.52bn	19%	5.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	47,630	1,889	₦6.38bn	₦6.11bn	7%	14.6 yr
Anchor	177	169	₦1.64bn	₦1.15bn	81%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	103	98	₦242m	₦242m	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	81	77	₦18.5m	₦18.5m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	3	1	₦1.88m	₦1.88m	39%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	31,429	938	₦195m	₦195m	5%	16.4 yr
30 50m2	8,650	348	₦219m	₦219m	9%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	6,458	430	₦1.39bn	₦1.28bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	1,273	394	₦2.32bn	₦2.26bn	31%	3.4 yr
250 1000m2	182	122	₦2.95bn	₦2.84bn	69%	1.4 yr
Over 1000m2	2	2	₦1.21bn	₦725m	79%	1.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Rural	16,491	163	₦876m	₦807m	7%	14.6 yr
Urban	15,520	819	₦1.33bn	₦1.33bn	7%	14.6 yr
Unclassified	9,724	93	₦714m	₦630m	5%	17.1 yr
Dense Urban	6,259	1,159	₦5.36bn	₦4.76bn	21%	5.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	33,347	799	₦118m	₦118m	5%	16.1 yr
Residential Small	9,031	761	₦1.66bn	₦1.56bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential	4,035	329	₦4.57bn	₦4.4bn	19%	5.4 yr
Residential Informal	1,217	0	₦30m	₦30m	27%	3.9 yr
Institutional	128	123	₦251m	₦251m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	75	73	₦115m	₦115m	87%	1.1 yr
School	48	46	₦63.8m	₦63.8m	83%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	30	28	₦1.39bn	₦903m	57%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	27	26	₦6.3m	₦6.3m	65%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	27	25	₦2.79m	₦2.79m	65%	1.6 yr
Clinic	23	21	₦66.3m	₦66.3m	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial Site	2	1	₦1.83m	₦1.83m	39%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	47,994	2,234	₦8.28bn	₦7.52bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	47,815	2,064	₦6.64bn	₦6.37bn	7%	14.4 yr
Enterprise	179	170	₦1.64bn	₦1.15bn	81%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	33,365	817	₦119m	₦119m
2.0	7,176	541	₦1.46bn	₦1.37bn
1.0	4,823	262	₦609m	₦573m
3.0	2,577	609	₦6.08bn	₦5.44bn
4.0	53	5	₦14.6m	₦14.6m