Sokoto State

Rooftop solar in Kebbe, Sokoto: what the roofs are worth

Kebbe has 48,981 buildings with a viable rooftop and 287 MWp of roof capacity. 7% run a generator, and together they spend ₦5.89bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

48,981

Usable roof area

1.3 km²

287 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦5.89bn/yr

5.13 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

9.9 yr

Median IRR 9% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kebbe

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦5.89bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦5.66bn

Lifetime cash saved₦299bn

NPV₦45.3bn

Median IRR9%

Median payback9.9 yr

Unlocked energy6.16 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity38.3 MWp

Capex₦41.4bn

Year-one energy value₦43.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.07tn

NPV₦358bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Kebbe's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 38.3 MWp
Capital cost: ₦41.4bn
Year 1 savings: ₦43.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦358bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kebbe pays back quickly

Of the 48,764 buildings in Kebbe with a modelled payback, 34.9% pay back inside five years and 6.9% inside three.

Create a free account

How much of Kebbe's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kebbe consume 11.3 GWh/yr but want 17.5 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Create a free account

Electricity billing bands in Kebbe

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kebbe actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 48,764 buildings with a modelled result out of 48,981 in Kebbe. 21,015 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,382 (7%)

Under 5 years16,999 (35%)

Under 7 years21,042 (43%)

Under 10 years24,884 (51%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%23,304 (48%)

Above 15%21,015 (43%)

Above 20%18,032 (37%)

Above 25%14,779 (30%)

CO₂ avoided

11.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.48 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

6.16 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

158k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kebbe.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kebbe

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	18,798	258	₦1.95bn	₦1.94bn	7%	14.9 yr
D	17,779	891	₦1.17bn	₦1.09bn	9%	12.9 yr
C	12,404	2,219	₦2.77bn	₦2.63bn	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	48,260	2,741	₦3.98bn	₦3.76bn	9%	9.9 yr
Commercial General	296	273	₦655m	₦655m	57%	1.9 yr
Anchor	156	130	₦1.21bn	₦1.2bn	77%	1.4 yr
Worship	131	110	₦27.2m	₦27.2m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	128	108	₦20.2m	₦20.2m	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	10	6	₦4.73m	₦4.73m	43%	2.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	28,105	1,255	₦177m	₦177m	5%	16.1 yr
50 100m2	9,712	966	₦1.43bn	₦1.3bn	29%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	8,885	560	₦236m	₦236m	11%	8.4 yr
100 250m2	2,080	491	₦1.54bn	₦1.48bn	31%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	193	93	₦1.51bn	₦1.49bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	6	3	₦995m	₦987m	31%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Rural	22,342	303	₦766m	₦713m	9%	13.6 yr
Unclassified	12,720	119	₦1.58bn	₦1.55bn	5%	16.9 yr
Dense Urban	10,100	1,668	₦1.93bn	₦1.81bn	27%	4.1 yr
Urban	3,819	1,278	₦1.62bn	₦1.6bn	27%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	27,686	1,115	₦113m	₦113m	5%	16.1 yr
Residential Small	10,269	1,131	₦1.57bn	₦1.44bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential	6,119	319	₦2.16bn	₦2.07bn	19%	5.6 yr
Residential Formal	2,474	0	₦46.5m	₦46.5m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Informal	1,712	176	₦91m	₦91m	29%	3.9 yr
Commercial	160	160	₦352m	₦352m	57%	1.9 yr
Institutional	128	107	₦1.06bn	₦1.05bn	55%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	128	108	₦20.2m	₦20.2m	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	61	52	₦64.1m	₦64.1m	83%	1.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	46	40	₦226m	₦226m	63%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	45	37	₦5.88m	₦5.88m	61%	1.6 yr
School	45	37	₦14.8m	₦14.8m	79%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	48,979	3,368	₦5.89bn	₦5.66bn
Farmland	2	0	₦1.61k	₦1.61k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	48,613	3,034	₦4.11bn	₦3.88bn	9%	9.9 yr
SME High	206	200	₦577m	₦577m	57%	1.9 yr
Enterprise	162	134	₦1.21bn	₦1.2bn	75%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	27,707	1,131	₦114m	₦114m
2.0	8,108	744	₦992m	₦990m
1.0	7,180	387	₦322m	₦322m
3.0	3,843	1,038	₦4.05bn	₦3.82bn
4.0	2,142	67	₦411m	₦411m
5.0	1	1	₦6.03m	₦6.03m